Poll shows Sen. Kyrsten Sinema down, big time. But don't count her out yet

With the election just one year away, Arizona’s strange race for the U.S. Senate is beginning to take shape.

The contest was already destined to be an odd one. In 2022, Kyrsten Sinema abandoned the Democrats, making her our first independent senator.

In ordinary times, Sinema would be the strong favorite. After all, incumbency is a powerful advantage.

But it doesn’t take a master political strategist to know these are not ordinary times.

Poll has Sinema trailing Gallego, Lake

Shortly after Sinema fled the Dems, Rep. Ruben Gallego announced his candidacy for the position, buoying Arizona progressives. Gallego had been a constant critic of Sinema’s bipartisanship and demanded she display proper fealty to the party.

As for Team Elephant, failed gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake entered the GOP field of barely knowns, catapulting herself to the front of the herd. It’s unknown whether she again intends to insult a big chunk of Republicans the weekend before Election Day.

To date, Sinema hasn’t even declared her candidacy. But if she does, it’s not looking too good for our U.S. senator.

In a poll conducted by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Gallego has 41% support, with Lake trailing at 37%. As for our independent incumbent, Sinema garners a measly 17%.

Not good for the senior senator. It is, however, just one poll and very early. The frontrunners are within the poll’s margin of error, and well below the 50% threshold for an outright majority.

Few know how progressive Gallego is

Lake is a proven loser in a statewide race and has further reduced her appeal since that outcome. She still insists she defeated Gov Katie Hobbs but has spent most of her term as ersatz governor in a suite at Mar-a-Lago.

As for Gallego, he remains an unknown quantity for the majority of Arizona voters. Unless you regularly follow state politics or you’ve lived in his congressional district, most don’t realize how progressive he is.

The congressman is most famous for his bomb-throwing rhetoric, more in line with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez than the average Arizona Democrat. His Twitter feed is replete with profane tirades, dropping more f-bombs than Donald Trump on a bad-hair day.

Gallego will regret: Running in Arizona like a D.C. liberal

In one of many soliloquys he tweeted, “Just to be clear f--- you @tedcruz you f---ing baby killer.” We haven’t witnessed this level of statesmanship since The Federalist Papers. Gallego might hate Trump, but he sure acts like him.

Then, there are Gallego’s policies.

The congressman has voted in line with the president’s stated position 100% of the time, as of April. Biden remains a wildly unpopular president, with just 37% approval, according to Gallup. Few in either party desire such uncritical loyalty to our doddering chief executive.

When Russia invaded Ukraine, Gallego called to expel every Russian university student from the U.S. That might help Putin fill up his tanks and gulags, but the xenophobia even drew alarm from fellow Democrats.

Will Sinema's independence be her strength?

Then there are his remarks mocking gun owners.

“If you are a Republican, you have to have a bunch of guns, a jacked-up truck with some cow nuts hanging in the back,” Gallego said. “That’s your cultural identity now.”

Arizona is a famously pro-Second Amendment state; you’re going to need a few of those voters, Ruben.

This laptop bravado might work in D.C., where Gallego declares his primary residence, but not in Arizona … where he also declares his primary residence.

Sinema got into hot water for opposing a few of the White House’s legislative efforts last year. Her behavior annoyed a lot of Democrats, but looking at Biden’s polls today, it could turn out to be the smart play.

There’s still a long way to go. Maybe reelecting a senator not beholden to either Biden or Trump will grow more popular by November 2024.

Jon Gabriel, a Mesa resident, is editor-in-chief of Ricochet.com and a contributor to The Arizona Republic and azcentral.com. On Twitter: @exjon.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Sen. Kyrsten Sinema may be down in polls, but don't count her out