Poll shows tight race on Kansas abortion amendment, with supporters narrowly ahead as Election Day nears

A new poll released Wednesday shows a close race in the passage of a proposed anti-abortion amendment to the Kansas Constitution, set to be the first time voters in any state weigh in on abortion after Roe v. Wade was overturned last month.

According to the survey, conducted by the Kansas City, Mo., firm co/efficient and first reported by the political news site FiveThirtyEight, 47% of voters say they will vote for the amendment, while 43% say they will oppose the measure.

The poll has a 2.7% margin-of-error, meaning the race is likely to remain close in the runup to the Aug. 2 vote. It is the first public polling released on the amendment to date, with both campaigns hesitant to share their internal survey data.

Millions of dollars in spending have poured in on both sides of the debate, with interest spiking in particular since a June ruling from the U.S. Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade, ending national abortion protections.

More: Millions pour into Kansas' abortion fight, with constitutional amendment vote looming large

Of those polled, 49% said they agreed with the court's decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health, while 46% maintained their opposition.

Voters say the amendment's presence on the ballot has heightened the importance of going to the polls, particularly for Democrats, with 93% of those voters surveyed saying the issue raised the importance of voting.

Republican leaders won't say what abortion measures they might support

Top Republican lawmakers have yet to say what types of abortion measures they might consider if the amendment were to pass, with fears that Kansas will follow the lead of other states in banning the practice.

Proponents of the amendment maintain their focus is on restoring several restrictions struck down by state courts, including a 2019 Kansas Supreme Court decision.

Of those polled, 43% said they favored no restrictions on abortion, while only 5% wanted a total ban on abortion. Another 19% said they favored exceptions only for rape, incest and protecting the life of the mother.

More: Poll shows Kansas residents skeptical of banning abortion in all cases, as amendment vote looms

This squares with a Fort Hays State University poll in February that found over 60% said they disagreed or strongly disagreed with the idea of banning abortion in all cases, even those involving rape or incest.

Mackenzie Haddix, a spokesperson for the Value Them Both Coalition, the largest group supporting the amendment said the poll released Wednesday was evidence voters were responding to their message.

"We’re encouraged because we know Kansans do not support the radical pro-abortion agenda of the left," Haddix said in an email.

Ashley All, a spokesperson for Kansans for Constitutional Freedom, said the poll was evidence "this is going to be a close race."

"We will continue to talk to Kansans about how this amendment will mandate government control of our private medical decisions and pave the way for a total ban on abortion," All said in a statement.

Andrew Bahl is a senior statehouse reporter for the Topeka Capital-Journal. He can be reached at abahl@gannett.com or by phone at 443-979-6100.

This article originally appeared on Topeka Capital-Journal: Kansas abortion amendment a toss up, poll shows ahead of Aug. 2 vote