Poll shows Virginia voters closely divided, but abortion, education policies are top issues
A new poll finds likely Virginia voters almost evenly split on which party they’d like in charge of the General Assembly, but more than half agree abortion is a top issue of concern in the upcoming November election.
The poll, conducted by University of Mary Washington’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies among registered voters and likely voters, found 40% of Virginians favored Democratic Party majorities in the General Assembly, while 37% preferred Republican Party majorities. Among the responding likely voters, 42% said they wanted to see Democrats in charge, and another 42% said the same for Republicans.
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With all 140 state House and Senate seats on the ballot across the commonwealth, party control of the General Assembly is at stake. Democrats currently hold control of the Senate and Republicans hold control of the House.
A handful of the competitive races include contests in Hampton Roads.
“In many ways, Hampton Roads is the purplest part of purple Virginia,” said Stephen J. Farnsworth, professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington and the center’s director.
More than half (53%) of survey respondents indicated that abortion was a top concern for them going into the election following last year’s Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, the landmark case from 1973 that ruled the right to an abortion is protected under the U.S. Constitution. But the poll shows concern differed across parties, with 70% of Democrats deeming abortion a top concern as compared to 35% of Republicans and 54% of Independents.
In the survey, 23% of respondents said abortion should be legal in all cases, while 34% said it should be legal in most cases. By contrast, 27% said abortion should be illegal in most cases, while only 8% said it should be illegal in all cases.
University of Mary Washington’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies poll surveyed 1,000 Virginian adults, including 771 likely voters, earlier this month to gauge concerns ahead of the Nov. 7 general election.
Virginia currently allows abortions during the first two trimesters of pregnancy, or up to about 26 weeks, and limits circumstances under which third-trimester abortions are permitted. It remains the only state in the South without new restrictions on abortion access since the reversal of Roe.
As other states have moved to tightly restrict or ban abortion access since then, Virginia Republicans have rallied around Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s proposed 15-week limit abortion ban that allows for some exceptions. Many Republican candidates vying for office across Hampton Roads have expressed support for the 15-week limit.
Both parties are taking note that abortion is a top issue as it’s factored into campaign ads and party statements, with Democrats warning Republicans would enact abortion bans if they take control of the General Assembly, and Republicans claiming their opponents are “abortion extremists.”
Farnsworth told The Virginian-Pilot Thursday that Democratic voters are most engaged on abortion access given the reversal of Roe v. Wade, but noted that Republicans once “vigorously pro-life” are now suggesting a sort of middle ground acceptable to voters.
Meanwhile, both parties are “almost equally energized” about the role of education, Farnsworth added.
“Expect each political party to continue to talk past the other,” Farnsworth said in a statement about the poll. “Republicans will focus on perceived threats to parental rights in education, while Democrats will talk about what Republicans will do to further restrict abortion if they secure legislative majorities in Richmond. The very close divisions among voter preferences in this survey demonstrate that both parties are largely evenly matched in Virginia right now.”
In a statement sent out this week, the Republican Party of Virginia noted a newly released ad claiming Virginia Democrats “have fought to make unlimited, unrestricted, taxpayer-funded abortion-on-demand up until the moment of birth” the new standard under Virginia law.
“We need legislators who are willing to unite around commonsense safeguards that protect unborn babies and respect the dignity of expectant mothers,” the Virginia GOP said in its statement.
Meanwhile several recent ads for Hampton Roads Democrats have featured abortion access as a key talking point. Among them, an ad from Sen. Monty Mason, who faces Republican opponent Danny Diggs in the race for Senate District 24.
Planned Parenthood Advocates of Virginia is launching ads of its own, sending support this week to several candidates deemed “pro-reproductive rights champions,” including Michael Feggans, a Democrat running for House District 97 in Virginia Beach. Feggans is challenging Republican incumbent Karen Greenhalgh.
“Near daily attacks on reproductive rights across the country remind Virginians that we are in the fight of our lives to retain our right to legal abortion in the Commonwealth,” said Jamie Lockhart, executive director of Planned Parenthood Advocates of Virginia.
In the survey, voters identified other major concerns across the nation, with 21% of Virginians believing threats to democracy are the nation’s most important problem, while 20% said inflation, 16% said the economy and jobs, and 10% said immigration.
Nearly two-thirds of survey respondents (64%) said Virginia public school policies would be a major factor in deciding their vote, including 65% of the Republican respondents, 64% of the Democratic respondents and 64% of the Independent respondents.
Farnsworth added that the upcoming elections “are at least partially a referendum” on Youngkin, who will have served nearly half a term by then. The survey showed 40% of Virginians approve of Youngkin, while 37% disapprove. The rest are unsure.
Farnsworth said all eyes will be on Virginia in the upcoming midterm elections as its status as a “purple” state gives it “an outsized influence in national political conversations.”
“Republicans and Democrats alike will be looking at what happens in Virginia to see, among other things, how powerful abortion as a topic remains in the electorate,” Farnsworth said.
Natalie Anderson, 757-732-1133, natalie.anderson@virginiamedia.com
