Poll: Will voters support Trump despite his indictment?

A majority of independent Utah voters say they are less likely to vote for former President Donald Trump because of recent criminal charges, but among Republicans, a majority say it either won’t change how they vote or the charges make them more likely to support the former president.

The Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll was conducted among 800 registered voters from April 25-28 — before Trump was found liable for sexual assault and defamation in a civil suit filed by E. Jean Carroll, a writer who says Trump attacked her in the 1990s. He has repeatedly denied the charges, and at a recent CNN town hall, he mocked her and said he didn’t know her.

The indictment mentioned in the poll referred to the charges filed by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, related to an alleged cover-up of an affair during Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign. Trump was charged with 34 counts of falsifying business records.

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Among all voters, 33% said the charges will make them less likely to vote for Trump, while 34% said the charges will make no difference, and 23% said the charges will make them more likely to support him.

The partisan breakdown among respondents is more complicated. Trump’s Republican supporters say the charges either won’t change how they vote or will make them more likely to support the former president, with 31% saying more likely, 41% saying no change and 28% saying less likely.

But among independent voters, 51% say it will make them less likely to vote for Trump, while 30% say no change and 18% say more likely.

In the days following Trump’s indictment, several legal commentators questioned whether Bragg was right to bring the case against Trump.

“It raises some political questions whether this is the case to bring,” Rick Hasen, a professor at UCLA School of Law, told CNN.

Trump critic and New York Times columnist David French said there were “significant problems with the case.”

This reaction may help explain why 60% of Utah voters polled said they believe the charges brought against Trump were politically motivated, including 78% of Republicans and 49% of independent voters. But only 16% of Democrats believe politics played a part.

Partisan identification also played a role in how people saw Trump’s actions related to the charges. Overall, 44% of voters believe Trump intentionally acted illegally, 28% said he did nothing wrong and 18% said his actions were unintentional, but voters had very different takes depending on where they land on the political spectrum.

Among Republicans, 38% say Trump did nothing wrong, while 28% say he intentionally acted illegally and 24% say it was unintentional. Democrats were almost unanimous — 91% say they think Trump acted illegally on purpose, while only 6% say it was unintentional and 1% say he did nothing wrong.

A slight majority of independent voters, 51%, say his actions were intentional, while 15% say it was unintentional and 22% say he did nothing wrong.

At the CNN town hall, Trump said he thinks voters will continue to support him despite the criminal investigations into his behavior, including over his handling of classified documents and his alleged attempts to overturn the 2020 election.

During the broadcast, Trump defended a phone call to Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, where he asked him to “find 11,780 votes.”

“I called questioning the election. I thought it was a rigged election,” he said.

When asked whether a Manhattan jury’s recent decision to find him liable for sexual assault and defamation will make voters less likely to support him, Trump said, “No, I don’t think so.”