Poll: Waters ahead of Burton in Jacksonville sheriff race, election for mayor 'still anyone's race'

T.K. Waters holds a 5-point lead over Lakesha Burton in the Jacksonville sheriff race that still has a chunk of undecided voters up for grabs, a University of North Florida polls shows.

Waters, a Republican, and Burton, a Democrat, are running in an unusual contest that will fill the remainder of the term vacated by former Sheriff Mike Williams when his move to Nassau County violated the City Charter's residency requirement and forced him to leave office a year early.

Waters garnered 48% in the UNF poll and Burton was at 43% in the survey of registered voters who are likely to cast votes in the Nov. 8 election.

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The contest "has gotten a lot tighter" since the first election in August that triggered a runoff between Waters and Burton when no one won more than 50% of the vote, said Michael Binder, a UNF professor of political science who is faculty director of the school's Public Opinion Research Laboratory.

In the August first election, Waters captured nearly 47% of the vote while Burton pulled in almost 33%. Three other Democrats, lead by Ken Jefferson with 14%, rounded out that contest.

Burton has gained support from Democrat voters in the UNF poll. But Binder said the poll showed 12% of Democrats still were up in the air for who they'll back in the Nov. 8 election.

“It’s important to note that a good portion of likely Democrat voters either don’t know or refused to say who they’re voting for, and if they end up voting party lines, it could boost Burton’s chances," he said.

Aaron Bean at 50% in race for new congressional seat

In the race for the 4th Congressional District, state Sen. Aaron Bean, R-Fernandina Beach, held a double-digit lead with 50% saying they would vote for him compared to 38% for LaShonda "L.J."  Holloway, the Democratic nominee.

The newly drawn congressional seat covers all of Nassau and Clay counties, which both are Republican strongholds, and the Democratic-favoring half of Duval County that is north and west of the St. Johns River.

Gov. Ron DeSantis and the state Legislature created that new Northeast Florida district after eliminating a Democratic-friendly district that stretched from part of Jacksonville to west of Tallahassee.

“This race has been on a lot of folks’ radar since CD 4 was redrawn earlier this year, especially given legal challenges and criticism of the new districts as watering down the Black vote in North Florida," Binder said. “Not only has L.J. Holloway likely feeling some of these redistricting effects as a Black Democrat, but she’s also been far outspent by Aaron Bean on the campaign trail.”

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'Anyone's race" in Jacksonville mayor election

Looking ahead to the mayor's race in spring of 2023, the UNF poll found "don't know" is the most common response from voters about that contest, which is an open seat because Mayor Lenny Curry cannot run again due to term limits.

Donna Deegan, a Democrat, rounded up 22% in the poll. JAX Chamber President Daniel Davis, a Republican, picked up 7% support followed closely by state Sen. Audrey Gibson, D-Jacksonville, at 6% and Jacksonville City Council member LeAnna Cumber, a Republican, also at 6%. City Council member Al Ferraro was at 4%.

Binder said the mayor's race is fluid and voters will tune into it more when the first election in March gets closer.

“The mayoral election isn’t until March of next year so these numbers will change significantly over the next five months,” he said. “Donna Deegan seems to have maintained a comfortable lead since earlier this year, but with a whopping 47% who don’t know — 53% of registered Republicans — it is still anyone’s race.”

The poll had a margin of sampling error for the Duval County sample at plus or minus 4.7% and a sampling error for the 4th Congressional District race of plus or minus 5.4%.

This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: UNF poll: T.K. Waters up on Lakesha Burton in Jacksonville sheriff race