Polls ahead of the governor's race have been 'all over the place'

When it comes to next week's gubernatorial election, polling has offered Oklahomans a choose-your-own-adventure, of sorts.

Those hoping for a Joy Hofmeister win have multiple polls to focus on that appear to show a tight race or even her in the lead. Gov. Kevin Stitt's supporters can take comfort in other polls that predict a landslide win for the Republican incumbent.

"I have no idea what to think," said Chris Callan, a Stitt supporter from El Reno who was surprised to see a poll last month that showed Hofmeister in the lead.

Nearly every scenario for next week's election has emerged in recent weeks through various polls, which has caused some election tracking organizations to label the race a tossup.

More:Millions in outside spending has appeared to impact Oklahoma's race for governor

Some polls show Hofmeister ahead, and others show Stitt in front

On Thursday, a SoonerPoll survey showed Hofmeister, a Democrat, with a four-point lead over Stitt (47% to 42.9%, with 6.6% of voters undecided).

However, the leader of SoonerPoll, an Oklahoma City-based polling firm, acknowledged the results could be problematic.

“Typically, Republicans and Democrats alike have been responsive at the same levels when talking with us, but this year is different,” Bill Shapard, SoonerPoll’s founder, wrote in an Oct. 25 blog post on his firm’s website. “Republicans are finding themselves and their opinions under attack and are not talking to pollsters at the same level as Democrats or prior years.”

Shapard also said more Oklahoma voters appear ready to diversify their ballot this year, rather than voting straight party, which has been an advantage for Republicans. Stitt has been the target of millions of dollars in negative ads and Democratic turnout is in question after recent cycles were impacted by the pandemic, Shapard added.

“All of these things can and will make the polling unstable in Oklahoma for every pollster this year,” Shapard wrote.

SoonerPoll isn’t the only firm showing Hofmeister in a position for the upset, as Ascend Action had her up by three points, while Amber Integrated showed her trailing by just one point.

But Stitt’s campaign can take some solace in a recent Emerson College Polling survey that showed him with a nine-point lead.

Emerson College Polling, which surveyed likely voters between Oct. 25 and 28, reported Stitt retains a strong advantage among Republican voters, who outnumber Democrats by nearly a 2-to-1 margin.

More:Democrat Joy Hofmeister switched parties and needs others to do the same

“Hofmeister is leading among Independent voters 43% to 33%, but that is not enough to make up for the Republican advantage in Oklahoma,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Stitt leads among Republican voters 75% to 15%, who are expected to be about 52% of the total vote.”

The Emerson College poll is the highest-rated firm to survey Oklahoma voters, according to ratings given by FiveThirtyEight, a site that tracks national polls.

The Emerson College poll appeared to improve Stitt’s chances, according to FiveThirtyEight, which now gives Stitt a 94% chance of victory, slightly better than the 91% chance they gave him last week.

Although Cook Political Report, which also tracks polling, has labeled Oklahoma’s governor’s race as a “likely” win for Stitt, a slight shift from a “safe” win just a few weeks ago.

Stitt, national GOP group pump money into campaign

The shift in ratings and some polls showing a lead for Hofmeister have driven headlines in recent weeks and brought some surprising national attention to Oklahoma’s gubernatorial race.

The New York Times has referred to the race as a “tossup”, while a recent Time magazine article carried the headline, “Why the Oklahoma governor’s race is closer than anyone expected.”

Stitt’s campaign has tried to refute the narrative of a close race, claiming he is in a position to have one of the largest wins in state history.

WPA Intelligence, a firm that works for Stitt, recently claimed its own polls have the governor with a 13-point lead, “likely surpassing his margin in 2018.”

But while Stitt-friendly groups claim his reelection path is closer to a sure thing, the governor’s own campaign and the national Republican party have appeared to take the close polling more seriously in recent weeks.

Stitt’s campaign schedule has intensified in recent weeks. He personally loaned his reelection effort nearly $2 million and the Republican Governors Association put $1 million into the race to buy attack ads against Hofmeister.

More:Gov. Kevin Stitt isn't here to make friends, but he's asking for your vote

"The polls are all over the place, but I have trust in Oklahomans. I can feel the excitement building," Stitt said after an Oklahoma City rally this week.

Stitt said he believes Oklahoma Republicans will be turned off by Hofmeister switching political parties and her eight years as head of the state Department of Education.

"My opponent, she's a nice lady, but when she couldn't see a path forward as a Republican, she switched parties," Stitt said. "And she's been in charge of the education as superintendent for the last eight years, and I just don't think she's done enough to be elected governor."Hofmeister, who has been running as if she is in a close race with Stitt, launched a statewide bus tour last week, telling supporters at each stop that "momentum is building" for her campaign.

"We've got to have a governor who is not self-dealing or known for his cronyism or his corruption," Hofmeister told voters during a campaign stop in El Reno. "(My campaign) is about having the people of Oklahoma in charge."

Hofmeister takes campaign on rural road trip, where she'll need to drum up support

A former Republican, Hofmeister switched to the Democratic party last year to run for governor, which many believe is part of the reason she has attracted some Republican voters. She has built her campaign on a moderate platform, running her own commercials criticizing both Stitt and President Joe Biden.

She has also spent a lot of time campaigning in rural Oklahoma, geography she needs to gain ground in if she is to beat Stitt.

In the Amber Integrated poll released this week that showed Stitt with a one-point lead over Hofmeister, she was leading by 12 points among voters in Oklahoma City and Tulsa. However, Stitt had a six-point lead among all other voters.

More:Stitt's false claim about Oklahoma's crime rate a key moment during governor's debate

Drew Edmondson, the Democratic candidate for governor in 2018, also had some favorable polls ahead of his election against Stitt as a SoonerPoll survey showed Stitt was just a two-point lead at one point.

However, Stitt ended up winning the election by 12 points.

Defenders of polls often claim they are not predictions but snapshots in time. Even some pollsters that publish surveys with Hofmeister leading have claimed they still believe Stitt will win, largely because of Oklahoma’s recent political history.

"The polls are all over the place but it will be … Tuesday's vote that actually counts, and I'm confident in Stitt (winning)," said Callan, the Stitt supporter from El Reno.

This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: Polling in Oklahoma governor's race predicts various results