Polls: Gideon leads Collins in Maine, McConnell up big in Kentucky

James Arkin
·3 min read

A new poll shows Democrat Sara Gideon opening up a large lead in the Maine Senate race over GOP Sen. Susan Collins, a result that diverges from other data showing a close contest as Collins seeks a fifth term this fall.

The poll, from Quinnipiac University, was one of three surveys released on Wednesday: A poll in Kentucky shows Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell with a double-digit lead over Democratic challenger Amy McGrath in Kentucky and a tied race in South Carolina between GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham and Democrat Jaime Harrison.

The race between Gideon and Collins is one of the most critical for control of the Senate next year and has been one of the most expensive races in the nation. Kentucky and South Carolina are considered safer seats for Republicans, though Graham is facing the most expensive and challenging reelection of his career.

Gideon had 54 percent support among likely voters, compared with 42 percent support for Collins, according to the poll.

Collins' image in the survey was underwater, with 43 percent of voters viewing her favorably compared to 51 percent who held an unfavorable view of the longtime senator. Gideon had a positive image: 49 percent of voters viewed her favorably compared to 37 percent who had an unfavorable view of the Democrat.

The double-digit lead is by far the largest Gideon has had in any public survey so far in this race. The RealClearPolitics polling average had Gideon ahead by 4.5 percentage points. In August, a survey from Quinnipiac showed Gideon ahead among all registered voters, 47 percent to 43 percent.

In South Carolina, Harrison and Graham were tied at 48 percent support from likely voters. Graham's image was slightly underwater: 44 percent had a favorable opinion, while 49 percent viewed him unfavorably. Harrison was viewed favorably by 47 percent of likely voters, and 34 percent had an unfavorable opinion of him.

In Kentucky, McConnell has opened up a substantial lead over McGrath, 53 percent to 41 percent among likely voters.

McConnell's image was only slightly underwater: 44 percent had a favorable view of the Senate leader and 46 percent had an unfavorable view. McGrath's image was underwater: 34 percent had a favorable view and 47 percent had an unfavorable view.

President Donald Trump leads in Kentucky and South Carolina, though by smaller margins than he won those two states in 2016. In Maine, the poll shows Biden ahead by more than 20 points, 59 percent to 38 percent — a far greater Democratic advantage than Hillary Clinton's 3-point victory over Trump in 2016.

All three surveys were conducted from Sept. 10-14. In Kentucky, 1,164 likely voters were surveyed, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. In Maine, Quinnipiac surveyed 1,183 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. In South Carolina, pollsters surveyed 969 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.