Polls say Trump is gaining ground among Hispanics and Blacks. Don’t be so sure | Opinion

It’s hard to believe that likely Republican nominee Donald Trump, who falsely claimed in 2016 that most Mexican immigrants are criminals and rapists and who reportedly referred to African nations in 2018 as “shithole countries,” is gaining ground among Hispanic and Black voters.

But that’s what the latest polls say.

There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of these polls, and many things may happen between now and the November 2024 elections. Trump may be convicted in one or more of the several felony cases he is facing, including the charge that he conspired to overturn the 2020 election results.

A New York Times/Siena College poll of 3,662 registered voters released Nov. 5 shows that Biden leads Trump by only 50% to 42% among Hispanic voters. That would be the smallest margin of victory for a Democratic presidential hopeful among Latinos in recent history. By comparison, in the 2020 elections Biden beat Trump among Hispanics by 60% to 35%.

Asked about these numbers Thursday, the former president celebrated in an interview with the Univision network that, “We have tremendous support” from Latino voters.

The Times-Siena poll, conducted in the key swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, shows that Biden leads Trump by 71% to 22% among African-American voters. In 2020, Trump had received only 7% of the Black vote.

Overall, the Times-Siena poll shows that Trump is beating Biden in five of six battleground states. That would give him a plurality of votes in the Electoral College.

The new poll is consistent with the results of surveys released in September by CBS News and Quinnipiac University that showed a softening of Hispanic and Black support for Biden.

But, while all of these polls are reputable, we should take their numbers for Hispanics and African Americans with a grain of salt, because their sampling size for these ethnic groups was too small. They are polls of the general population, and therefore — unlike polls conducted exclusively among Latinos or Blacks — include relatively small numbers of Hispanic and African-American voters.

Eduardo Gamarra, head of Florida International University’s Latino Public Opinion Forum, which conducts polls of Hispanic voters, told me that the Times-Siena poll probably included only about 650 Latinos, or about 108 in each of states included in the survey. That’s a very small sampling from which to draw any conclusions, Gamarra told me.

There are other reasons why I wouldn’t bet too much on a major Trump surge among Latinos and Blacks.

First, Republicans seem to be doing better in public opinion polls than in voting booths. In the 2020 elections, the 2022-midterms, and in last week’s state elections in Ohio, Kentucky and Virginia, Democrats won most races, against the predictions of many pollsters.

Second, while Trump will try to depict 80-year-old Biden as too old and ineffective, the Biden campaign will have an arsenal of videos to show Trump as an erratic 77-year-old who has difficulty walking down a ramp, has a hard time uttering a full sentence and once advised Americans to inject themselves with disinfectant to protect themselves against COVID-19.

Third, whether in respect to democratic rules, affirmative action, abortion, climate change, gun safety or immigration, Biden is much closer to the majority of the American electorate than Trump, whose stand against abortion and gun-safety rules will not help him in 2024.

And, on Election Day, many Latinos and African Americans will think twice before casting their votes for Trump, who praised white supremacists when he said there were “very fine people on both sides” when talking about the violent 2017 clashes between neo-Nazis and people protesting against racism in Charlottesville.

On foreign policy, Biden will be able to boast about his decisive support for Israel and Ukraine, in contrast with Trump’s previous love affair with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. Biden will also be able to stress his success in re-uniting and expanding the pro-American U.S.-European alliance that Trump had almost destroyed by threatening to withdraw from NATO.

Trump’s best hope of winning will be an economic downturn, which is possible but far from probable. Inflation has come down, and unemployment is at its lowest rate in nearly 50 years, although many Americans are angry that prices not falling back to their pre-pandemic levels.

The bottom line is, barring a resurgence of inflation, I don’t see a Hispanic or Black stampede toward Trump.

Don’t miss the “Oppenheimer Presenta” TV show on Sundays at 9 pm E.T. on CNN en Español. Blog: www.andresoppenheimer.com