As population loss continues in southwest Minnesota, workforce leaders discuss ways to retain young people

Sep. 19—WORTHINGTON — Help wanted signs seem to be everywhere these days — sitting in storefront windows, taped to restaurant doors, scrolling across computerized messaging boards and printed in the local newspaper.

So, where are all of the employees? That's a good question, and one Luke Greiner, a labor market analyst covering central and southwest Minnesota for the state's Department of Employment and Economic Development. Greiner works closely with the Southwest Minnesota Private Industry Council and Minnesota West Community & Technical College, where he spoke earlier this month during a Workforce Development roundtable.

The more than 40 attendees included individuals in workforce development from across the southwest region, representatives from Minnesota West, and leaders from local chambers of commerce, economic development and city and county government.

If they had hoped for some good news from Greiner, it came in the form of a complement.

"The resource scarcity you have is really unique," he said. "That makes this region ... much more collaborative — because you have to be."

Greiner said the population slide in southwest Minnesota continues, declining nearly 3% between 2010 and 2022. The decline, however, goes back decades and decades, he added — to about 1970.

While he said the decline has slowed, what's happening in southwest Minnesota is a contrast to what's happening across the country, and in most of the rest of Minnesota, where communities and counties are seeing healthy population growth.

"The only growth we really do see is in our older population," Greiner shared, noting that the population of individuals aged 55 to 64 increased by 50% from 2010 to 2022.

"You're seeing growth in the population that ages out of the workforce," he said.

Meanwhile, the southwest region is seeing a shift through diversity, with more Hispanic and Latino populations moving in. Elsewhere in Minnesota, Greiner said communities are seeing more growth in Black/African American and Asian populations.

"A lot of the state gained a lot of domestic in-migration over the past few years, but this region did not," Greiner shared. "This all has implications in our labor force."

During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, Greiner said this area shed thousands of workers. While some of them have returned to the workforce, a lot have not.

"What's problematic here is we saw the most people leave the labor force — people 55-plus," Greiner said. "Because you have a higher concentration of people 55-plus, that's more bad news. It's pulled down our labor force participation rate."

Based on the region's age pyramid, Greiner said the region can expect about 9% fewer people, in general, by 2045.

"It's really important to think not only in terms of your investments, but what type of workers are you going to have access to," he questioned. "If you have a workforce population problem, we don't see that improving."

Yet, Greiner's talk wasn't all gloom and doom.

"The good news is this area has had a very strong recovery from 2020, but your ability to bring jobs back is your ability to hire people," he said. "We see record numbers of openings, but it's not adding up to the job growth we'd like to see."

Greiner noted that manufacturing in southwest Minnesota has been very strong through the first quarter of 2023, with 1,246 new jobs created since pre-pandemic levels. At the same time, however, the region is down 782 jobs in health care. Construction employment is up, but not as much as other parts of the state, he added.

"If you're a company that's trying to hire, you shouldn't only be concerned about your competitors," Greiner said, noting that jobs in the greatest demand are also seeing the greatest incentives.

"Doing the work with fewer jobs leads to burnout; people are expected to do more," he said. "The harder it is to recover those jobs, the more incentives will be available."

Greiner noted that the region has a record number of job openings, and if it had more people, the region would be able to recover.

"If we could fill all of our jobs overnight, we could have job growth," he added.

Carrie Bendix, director of the Southwest Minnesota Private Industry Council serving 14 counties, said her agency has three key workforce strategies — to increase high school student exposure to occupations and demand; to increase the number of skilled workers; and to reduce education and employment disparities by providing opportunities.

Bendix said 48% of students who go on to college after high school in the nine counties of southwest Minnesota choose a college in another state. Once they leave, many don't return.

"You don't have to leave southwest Minnesota to have a great career," she said. "There are many ways to career success, not just a 4-year degree."

Bendix specifically pointed to plumbers, who make more than a 4-year engineering graduate.

One of the issues Bendix said needs to be addressed is the number of career counselors available to work with high school students. In this region, it's one counselor to 570 students — the fourth worst ratio in the country.

If students knew the types of careers available to them locally, perhaps more would choose to stay here.

She encouraged attendees to promote business tours, bringing teachers and students to local businesses, or inviting business leaders into the classroom to increase student exposure to local careers. Job shadowing and internships are also a great way to increase awareness among students.

Nobles County Administrator Bruce Heitkamp spoke of the county's internship program this summer, in which 12 interns were placed with local employers to give them work experience with the hope that some will return after college.

"Three of the employers offered (interns) a part-time job to keep them retained when they're home (on breaks)," Heitkamp said.

He's now working to establish a career training program in Worthington High School, which is set to begin next year. Other communities are already doing that, or working toward it, including Luverne, Windom, Edgerton and Slayton.

Following the presentations, attendees discussed ideas in small groups, such as what's working well — internships, industry partnerships, working with high school students and career fairs; what might be improved upon — exposure to resources, age-appropriate career exploration and increased funding for career navigators and counselors; and what might be missing — promoting the region as a good place to live and work, employer incentives and student incentives.

Bendix said the information gathered during the event will be compiled with information gathered during roundtable discussions planned in the northern part of the region, and will culminate in a strategic plan for the Southwest Minnesota Private Industry Council by the end of this year.