Population numbers forecast drop in New Mexico school enrollment

Sep. 21—As the state's 89 school districts await next month's updated student enrollment data, lawmakers on a legislative task force got what some called sobering news on state population trends and how they will affect the number of students who attend New Mexico's public schools.

Experts testifying Tuesday before the Public School Capital Outlay Oversight Task Force said younger adults in New Mexico are not having babies as often as they have in the past — a phenomenon that is combining with the state's inability to attract or retain younger adults raising families and a rise in the population of older residents.

The result, they said, is a drop in enrollment for public schools.

"Births are important because they directly correlate to kindergarten populations five years later," John M. Valdez, facilities master planner for the Public School Facilities Authority, said during the hearing at the state Capitol. "Many districts are experiencing enrollment declines, and the declining birthrate is one of the most significant reasons why that is happening."

Santa Fe Public Schools Superintendent Hilario "Larry" Chavez, whose district has seen enrollment declines even before the coronavirus pandemic, said he was not surprised by the news.

"That's something we have been talking about for years — the low birthrate," he said.

He said the departure of families leaving Santa Fe or other parts of the state for better quality-of-life opportunities also is playing a role, one felt in the number of students in the classroom and those who teach them.

"It has a profound impact ... for the future workforce for Santa Fe Public Schools," he said.

Education advocates worry a decline in students could mean a drop in school funding in New Mexico, which has a complex per-student funding formula, known within educational circles as the State Equalization Guarantee.

Though no one on the committee took up that issue during Tuesday's hearing, Stan Rounds, executive director of the New Mexico Coalition of Educational Leaders and a former superintendent in Las Cruces, said after the meeting administrators and educators will be looking to see how the enrollment trends affect that formula.

He said such drops in funding can lead the state to realign educational priorities and funnel available dollars into programs that will more specifically support student needs.

"The one thing we don't need to be doing is build lots of new schools for more students so that means we can work on ... career, vocational and technical education, early childhood education, student safety," he said.

Chavez said he is concerned about any drop in funding as enrollment is "one of the most important drivers in the funding formula."

It's unlikely birthrate trends will change anytime soon, one expert said. Student enrollment will continue to decline until New Mexico sees an increase in fertility and migration rates, said Jacqueline A. Miller, a senior researcher with the University of New Mexico's Geospatial and Population Studies Department.

She said state birthrates dropped 21 percent between 2010 and 2020 — from 27,795 to 21,890.

That mirrors national trends dating back decades, she said. According to U.S. Census Bureau data, the annual birthrate in the nation dropped from about 4.1 million in 1990 to 3.7 million in 2019.

Chavez said other factors, many difficult to predict, play a role in whether student enrollment rates go up or down. Among those elements are whether a new business or industry moves into or out of a community; whether a large operation like a military base opens or closes; and whether parents have school choice outside the local public school system.

The pandemic has played some role as well, with more parents opting to home-school their children rather than send them back to traditional public schools. The state Public Education Department reported statewide student enrollment dropped more than 4 percent from 2019 — the year before COVID-19 was first reported in New Mexico — to 2020.

Still, the drop of, say, 50 students in one school district may not alter the day-to-day operations very much as the decrease is likely to be spread out over a number of different grade levels and school facilities, Chavez said.

As a result, Sen. Mimi Stewart, D-Albuquerque, said lawmakers have to be cautious about rushing to "right-size" school districts by closing schools or cutting teaching positions because of enrollment drops.

"I personally like the idea of a few empty seats in the classroom," said Stewart, noting research says smaller student-teacher ratios in the classroom can pay off when it comes to higher academic achievement scores.

The state Public Education Department is expected to release its 40-day student enrollment figures — the first signpost of how many students are in the public school system — sometime in October.

Last year, more than 318,600 students were enrolled in the state's public schools.