A possible COVID-19 2nd wave could heighten flu vaccine 'challenges' this fall

John Roach
·4 min read

The World Health Organization (WHO) is actively monitoring the potential impact of the current COVID-19 pandemic on three distinct influenza seasons, according to a WHO statement to AccuWeather. They include the current Southern Hemisphere season, including vaccination and distribution, the production capacity for the Northern Hemisphere 2020-21 season and even monitoring of flu viruses for the strain selection in September 2020 for the Southern Hemisphere 2021 season.

The WHO has been working with the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers and Association (IFPMA), which conducted a survey to understand if there has been any impact of the current COVID-19 pandemic on influenza vaccine manufacturers, according to the WHO statement.

The IFPMA survey results show "air traffic disruption is adding challenges to vaccine distribution and logistics" and an "increase in seasonal influenza vaccine demand" during the current Southern Hemisphere flu season, the WHO added.

There are "also concerns about air traffic disruptions" affecting vaccine distribution for the Northern Hemisphere in the fall, the WHO told AccuWeather, as well as possible "border closures." "Delays with [vaccine] shipment have already been experienced due to the pandemic."

A shortage of flu vaccine in the Northern Hemisphere in the fall could occur around the worst time. Infectious disease experts are concerned about a possible second wave of COVID-19 based on past influenza pandemics, Dr. Harvey Fineberg told AccuWeather. Dr. Fineberg was the chair of a National Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine panel that sent a report to the White House last week concerning how weather and seasonality may affect the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.

Paramedic Chelsea Monge of Ready Responders removes personal protective equipment after making a house call for a possible coronavirus patient Friday, April 10, 2020, in Henderson, Nev. Ready Responders is a group that makes house calls for non emergencies and will connect the patient with a doctor via a telehealth service. Monge estimates that about half of calls to the group in the past month have been for flu-like symptoms. (AP Photo/John Locher)

"If you look at the influenza pandemics - which is the largest source of recurring pandemics ... when they emerged, they all tended to go into a downcycle after about six months and then to come back," Fineberg told AccuWeather. "But it didn't matter about the season - it was when they started that led to the cycling.

"Whether that's very relevant or remotely interesting connected to coronavirus, time will tell," he added. "We don't know, but that has important implications for how we have to plan and deploy our resources."

Dr. Deborah Levy, who worked at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for 20 years from 1996 to 2016 and was involved with crises involving SARS, MERS and the Zika virus among others, anticipates a greater demand for the flu vaccine this fall.

"I remember during the 2009 pandemic when the flu vaccine came out, they couldn't keep enough of it," Dr. Levy, now chair and professor of the Department of Epidemiology at the University of Nebraska Medical Center College of Public Health, told AccuWeather.

"If it happened then - and the coronavirus is worse now - I would suspect that you're going to have a high demand for it," said Dr. Levy. "And depending on how high the demand is, they may need to figure out how to roll it out. Everybody wants it right away, but it doesn't work that way."

A record 169.1 million doses of flu vaccines were administered in 2018-19, with this year's total not yet finalized but expected to be even higher. A record again figures to be set for the 2020-21 flu season.

Influenza is the most frequent cause of death from a vaccine-preventable disease in the United States. The CDC estimates there have been at least 39 million flu illnesses, 410,000 hospitalizations and 24,000 deaths from the flu during the 2019-20 season.

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Flu season typically begins in October, peaks between December and February and lasts well into March although activity can last as late as May. Flu viruses are more stable in cold air and the low humidity allows the virus particles to remain in the air, according to Peter Palese, who was the lead author on a key flu study in 2007.

"We are planning to increase our total production of flu vaccine doses by 8 percent in 2020 compared to 2019 for both Southern and Northern Hemisphere campaigns," a spokesperson for Sanofi replied to AccuWeather in an email. Sanofi is one of the manufacturers of flu vaccines.

"This represents a significant increase of 29 percent over two years (2020 vs 2018)," the spokesperson added. "Nevertheless, we anticipate the demand in the Northern Hemisphere to grow at an even higher pace and we're working on an internal allocation process, in order to meet the demand in an optimal way."

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