POSTSEASON PROBABILITIES: Which 2022 playoff drivers are most likely to return? | RYAN PRITT

With 19 different winners in 2022, you could say it was never easier to win a race in the NASCAR Cup Series.

But actually, the opposite was true. Parity and competition meant every checkered flag was as hotly contested as an early November box of Little Debbie Christmas Tree Cakes. It left playoff stalwarts like Ryan Blaney and Martin Truex winless and in Truex's case, with 15 other drivers claiming regular season wins, it led to a rare postseason absence.

Last week in this space, we counted down the 10 drivers most likely to make the 2023 playoffs though they missed the postseason field last season. But only Kurt Busch is not returning to full-time competition from the 2022 field. So, in order for more than one of the 10 we talked about last week to pull the trick this time around, one or more of the 15 playoff drivers returning from last year will have to miss out this year.

This week, it's only logical to follow last Sunday's piece with a look at who is most likely and least likely to miss the 2023 postseason. The 15 drivers have been separated into tiers and numbered starting with the driver whose postseason absence would seem the most improbable.

Here goes nothin':

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Barring injury … or Armageddon

• 1. Kyle Larson

• 2. Chase Elliott

• 3. Joey Logano

• 4. Denny Hamlin

It would be nearly unfathomable to imagine any of these four not winning a race or pointing their way in and that's backed up by pedigree and wins. Logano's title in 2022 was his second, with Larson and Elliott each holding one.

Hamlin, meanwhile, may sit alongside Mark Martin in the unenviable position of being the greatest driver not to have a championship. Not yet, anyway. His 48 wins are tied for 16th all time and are third among active drivers behind only Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick (60 each). More on them in a bit.

In the past two seasons, these four have combined for 29 wins and 110 top-five finishes and have all finished in the top eight in points. Logano, Elliott and Larson have combined to win four of the last five titles. Look, we're not advising that you bet your house — that is, if you visit a state that allows such things — but if you have a guest house, a camper, or even a nice riding lawnmower, you should feel pretty safe with any of these four drivers.

A fitting farewell?

• 5. Kevin Harvick

In terms of results vs. speed, we would argue that Harvick turned in one of the best seasons of his career. Harvick tied Logano and Ryan Blaney for the most top 10s among the Ford contingent with 17, and back-to-back wins at Michigan and Richmond in August got him into the 2022 playoff field.

Rumors and reports have swirled that 2023 could be the last season for Harvick, whose contract with Stewart-Haas Racing runs out at the end of the year. If the 47-year-old and 2014 champion decides this is indeed it, that decision won't be made because of diminishing ability.

The organization displayed improvement, especially in the middle of last season, and if Harvick's cars are a bit quicker, it's awfully hard to bet against him not only to make the postseason, but to contend for a championship.

Back, back, back it up

• 6. Ross Chastain

• 7. Christopher Bell

It was certainly a breakout season for both of these two, with Chastain and Bell both making the Championship 4 and finishing second and third respectively. Twice, Bell won elimination races just to reach Phoenix and, well, we've all gawked at Chastain's desperation, wall-riding maneuver that will go down in the annals as one of the great moves in racing history.

Each had five, top-five finishes during the 10-race postseason and combined for five victories in 2022.

Now what?

Quite frankly, it's time for both to prove they belong for good. Both are on a great trajectory, with Bell finishing 20th, 12th and now third in his three full-time seasons, and Chastain jumping from 20th in 2021 to runner up last year.

Bell, now 28, is firmly entrenched in one of the sport's best organizations, Joe Gibbs Racing, while Chastain will try to keep the momentum going with upstart Trackhouse Racing. But no one was more consistent than these two in 2022, with Chastain leading the series in top 10s (21) and Bell finishing tied for second with Elliott (20).

Now, consistency must be proven not race-by-race, but year-by-year. It starts with a trip to the playoffs.

Winning races in new places?

• 8. Kyle Busch

• 9. Tyler Reddick

Reddick makes the move to 23XI Racing and Busch will take Reddick's seat with Richard Childress Racing, ending quite a fruitful run for Busch at Joe Gibbs Racing, where he claimed two championships (2015 and 2019).

Reddick meanwhile, finally picked up an elusive first win at Road America in July and followed it up with two more, claiming checkered flags at the Indy Road Course and at Texas. A recharged, refocused Busch is a scary thought for the competition, and Reddick seems to have just scratched the surface at age 26.

But, we've seen such moves work out in a variety of different ways. Sure, Larson won a championship in his first year with Hendrick Motorsports in 2021, but more often than not, adjustment periods and growing pains occur. Driving talent is far from a question with either of these two, but cohesion certainly is.

How fast the two teams come together will go a long way in determining whether either or both can get back to Victory Lane and the playoffs.

The other guys

• 10. William Byron

• 11. Ryan Blaney

• 12. Alex Bowman

Often overshadowed by teammates and all squarely in their primes, there's certainly signs that point toward bigger things for all three, though there are concerns as well.

It's often easy to forget that Byron is still only 25-years old, despite having five full seasons under his belt. He's younger than Reddick, Elliott and Bell among others and his sixth-place final standing in 2022 was a career best. While he finished strong, with six top 10s in the final 10 races and no finish lower than 16th, a midseason slump was a bit worrisome, one in which Byron mustered just one top 10 in 18 starts after picking up a pair of victories in the first eight races.

Both Blaney and Bowman are 29 years old, have seven Cup Series wins and both enter 2023 with some points to prove. For Blaney, a win in a points-paying start would go a long way as his last victory came on Aug. 28, 2021, at Daytona. Bowman, meanwhile, missed five consecutive races in the playoffs due to a concussion before returning for the finale, finishing 34th at Phoenix.

Logano continued to carry the banner for Team Penske last year, with Blaney looking to step out of his shadow. For Byron and Bowman, it's Elliott and Larson leading the way for Hendrick Motorsports.

Blaney has six consecutive playoff trips to his credit, Bowman has been in five straight and Byron made his fourth straight appearance so all are fairly safe bets to make the postseason. And while that's good enough for this list, the three are undoubtedly looking to move a little closer to their more accomplished teammates.

Capable but vulnerable

• 13. Daniel Suarez

• 14. Austin Cindric

• 15. Austin Dillon

It's hard to bet against any of these drivers but if forced to, these three would seem to be the most vulnerable

As far as Cindric is concerned, 2022 went about as swimmingly as could be expected as the rookie won the Daytona 500 and piled up nine top-10 finishes in an eventual 12th-place standing in points. A sophomore slump is the concern.

Suarez made his playoff debut as well, though it came in his sixth full-time season. He also notched his long-awaited first Cup Series win at Sonoma. While Chastain garnered most of the attention in the Trackhouse stable, especially late in the season, it was a nice year for Suarez as well with 12 top 10s. How Trackhouse follows up its monster 2022 is one of the most intriguing storylines of the year and certainly, Suarez is a big part of that.

Finally, the cards, and the wrecking cars, fell just right for Dillon to score a win in the Daytona summer race, earning playoff entry at the last minute in 2022.

Now 32, Dillon is entering his 10th full-time season in the Cup Series, and though he has four victories and subsequent playoff appearances, two of those came at superspeedways, one was on fuel mileage at Charlotte and the fourth came via tire strategy and a late restart at Texas. Certainly, having Kyle Busch as a teammate could likely only help, but just how much remains to be seen.

This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: NASCAR Cup Series: 2022 playoff drivers' chances of defending playoff spots