Potential Hurricane Nicole prompts evacuation orders as it heads toward Florida east coast
Thousands of Floridians are under evacuation orders as a strengthening Tropical Storm Nicole is forecast to become Hurricane Nicole before making landfall on Florida’s east coast early Thursday morning, and hurricane warnings are now in place from the Volusia-Flagler county line south to Boca Raton, according to the National Hurricane Center.
As of the 1 p.m. NHC advisory Tuesday, Nicole is located about 310 miles northeast of the northwestern Bahamas and 420 miles east of West Palm Beach, up now to 60 mph sustained winds and moving west at 9 mph. Forecasters expect the storm to turn west-southwest by Tuesday night, then toward the northwest on Thursday.
“Strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Nicole is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday when it is near the northwestern Bahamas, and remain a hurricane when it approaches the east coast of Florida,” forecasters said.
Volusia County made mandatory evacuation orders effective at 10 a.m. Wednesday and need to be completed by 4 p.m.. The order applies to all residents east of the Intracoastal Waterway, manufactured home dwellers east of Interstate 95, all low-lying areas and areas prone to flooding, and all campsites and RV parks.
“This is necessary because many of our coastal properties sustained significant damage from Hurricane Ian, and with this storm’s wave runup and storm surge, some structures have increased vulnerability for further damage or collapse,” said Kevin Captain, community information director for Volusia County government.
Brevard County, meanwhile, recommended evacuation for residents on the barrier islands, mobile homes or manufactured housing, those in low-lying, flood-prone areas and any residents with special medical needs such as electrical dependence.
Farther south, Palm Beach County announced an evacuation of coastal neighborhoods and other vulnerable areas Tuesday to prepare for a possible hit from the storm. The county ordered the evacuation of zones A and B, which includes barrier islands, low-lying areas and mobile home communities, County Mayor Robert Weinroth said at a 2 p.m. news conference. The evacuations, which are effective at 7 a.m. Wednesday, apply to about 52,000 residents of mobile homes throughout the county and 67,000 coastal residents, Palm Beach County Administrator Verdenia Baker said.
“We saw what happened in Lee County,” Weinroth said, referring to the storm surge from Hurricane Ian that drowned coastal residents. “There were people who stayed put because they felt that there was not an emergency, and a lot of those people regretted their decision.”
The system transitioned Tuesday morning from Subtropical Storm Nicole as it moved over warmer waters, which means its core should become more defined. It’s already gained steam from 45 mph sustained winds as it continues to gain strength as it moves over the Bahamas toward the Florida coast.
The latest path projection predicts landfall in southern Brevard County as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph sustained winds and 90 mph gusts. It’s then projected to move northwest across the state over metro Orlando before shifting to the north late Thursday and heading up through North Florida near Gainesville and Tallahassee and into the southern U.S.
The NHC’s cone of uncertainty still has a wide swath, with the storm’s projected forecast to move anywhere as far south as Boca Raton to as far north as Jacksonville.
And the size of the storm means the entire state could feel effects as tropical-storm-force winds extend out 380 miles. As such, the NHC warns of dangers that expand hundreds of miles away from its center.
“Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center, outside of the forecast cone,” the NHC stated. “These hazards are likely to affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast U.S.”
In addition to the hurricane warning that runs from southern Palm Beach County north through the Treasure and Space coasts, a hurricane watch has been issued from the Volusia-Flagler county line north to Ponte Vedra Beach. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Hallandale Beach north to Boca Raton and from the Volusia-Flagler county line north to Altamaha Sound, Georgia as well as Lake Okeechobee, which is also under a hurricane watch.
Earlier Tuesday, the NHC added Florida’s west coast from north of Bonita Beach up to the Ochlockonee River to a tropical storm watch.
A hurricane warning is in place for all of Brevard County issued by the National Weather Service in Melbourne, which also has inland tropical storm warnings in place for Lake, Orange, Osceola, Seminole and Volusia counties, while Marion, Polk and Sumter counties are under a tropical storm watch.
Before Florida, though, the system will move over the northwestern Bahamas. A hurricane warning is in place for the the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini and Grand Bahama Island with a tropical storm warning for the Andros Island, New Providence and Eleuthera.
“Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning across all of the northwestern Bahamas by toght,” forecasters said. “Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area along the east coast of Florida by Wednesday night with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the west coast of Florinida by Wednesday night.”
The NHC’s next advisory and path projection is at 4 p.m.
While damaging winds are a concern, Central Florida, which is still draining from the flood damage of September’s Hurricane Ian, can expect more rain from the system. The NHC said Nicole will bring 3 to 5 inches of rain with some areas up to 7 inches across the Florida peninsula. The NWS in Melbourne said Central Florida could see closer to 6 inches of rain across eastern Osceola and Brevard Counties northward across the Saint Johns River basin.
“Urban and poor drainage flooding is increasingly likely, especially where the water table remains high,” the NWS stated. “The combination of heavy rainfall and strong northeast winds could also cause additional flooding and standing water concerns over the Saint Johns River basin, where river flood warnings remain in effect. A flood watch will likely be issued for all of east central Florida later today.”
The coasts of Brevard and Volusia are also subject to 8- to 10-foot waves beginning today growing bigger as the system approaches, the NWS said.
“Numerous life-threatening rip currents will continue. The strong winds and high surf will combine with ongoing high astronomical tides to bring significant storm surge and major beach erosion around the times of the next several high tide cycles from Tuesday through Thursday,” the NWS said. “Coastal areas of Volusia County which suffered serious damage from Hurricane Ian remain particularly vulnerable to additional beach erosion and inundation from coastal flooding.”
The NHC’s storm surge warning indicated from 3 to 5 feet could be seen from North Palm Beach up to Georgia as well as 2-4 feet from the mouth of the St. Johns River inland south to Georgetown, Florida in Putnam County.
Gov. Ron DeSantis on Monday issued a State of Emergency for 34 counties in the storm’s potential path, including all of Central Florida.
“While this storm does not, at this time, appear that it will become much stronger, I urge all Floridians to be prepared and to listen to announcements from local emergency management officials,” DeSantis said in a press release. “We will continue to monitor the trajectory and strength of this storm as it moves toward Florida.”
Counties in the order are Brevard, Broward, Charlotte, Citrus, Clay, Collier, DeSoto, Duval, Flagler, Glades, Hardee, Hendry, Highlands, Hillsborough, Indian River, Lake, Lee, Manatee, Martin, Miami-Dade, Nassau, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Palm Beach, Pasco, Polk, Putnam, Sarasota, Seminole, St. Johns, St. Lucie, Sumter and Volusia.
“... Regardless of final track or intensity, [Nicole’s] impacts are expected across east Central Florida,” the NWS Melbourne office said in its weather discussion. “Preparations need to be completed prior to Wednesday, as conditions will rapidly deteriorate into Wednesday afternoon. Be sure to stay up to date on the latest forecast and any Watches or Warnings. Those still dealing with the devastating impacts from Hurricane Ian are especially encouraged to make preparations and monitor the forecast.”
Earlier Monday, DeSantis said state emergency officials are in contact will all 67 of the state’s counties to identify potential resource gaps and enact plans for the state to respond quickly and efficiently to the system.
“I encourage all Floridians to be prepared and make a plan in the event a storm impacts Florida,” he said in a press release.
The release reminded Floridians “to know if they live in an evacuation zone, a low-lying, flood-prone area, a mobile home or an unsafe structure during hurricane season. It is also very important for residents to know their home and its ability to withstand strong winds and heavy rain.”
Ahead of the storm’s arrival, Brevard, Osceola, Seminole and Volusia County schools made the decision to cancel some classes on Wednesday and Thursday while Lake County will close on Thursday. All had Friday off already for Veterans Day. Orange County has yet to make a closure decision.
Also shutting down is UCF, for both on campus and online classes, but UCF Housing will remain open and operational through the storm for all residents, and campus dining halls will remain open until 3 p.m. Wednesday.
SunRail will also shut down train service starting Wednesday, and won’t reopen until all of 126 crossings have been inspected along the 61.5 miles of the corridor.
One of the counties with severe beachfront damage from Ian was Volusia, and Emergency Director Jim Judge said the winds from the system’s north and east quadrants are a particular threat again.
“We need to take this storm very seriously because it could cause more coastal erosion, which could be devastating to our beachfront properties impacted by Hurricane Ian,” he said. “We’re also looking at rainfall amounts anywhere from of 4 to 8 inches through Friday that could cause flooding, along with tropical-storm-force winds that could cause widespread power outages.”
Seminole County emergency officials on Monday also said they are preparing for Nicole to dump several inches of rain this week, particularly in areas where flood waters from Hurricane Ian just recently began to recede.
“No one wants to hear that, but that is what it looks like as of today,” said Alan Harris, director of Seminole’s office of emergency management. “Each forecast has gotten a little worse for us here.”
The St. Johns River is currently rated at a minor flood stage. But rains from Nicole may swell it to moderate flood stage, county officials said, with as much as 7 to 8 inches of rain in some areas of Seminole.
Harris also said the zig-zag path potential is a concern as it moves over the state.
“A double whammy I guess is certainly a possibility,” he said. “We’ve seen this before in Seminole County — 2008. I am not saying this is going to be Tropical Storm Fay, but the track is the exact opposite but very similar where the storm came over us, made a U-Turn, and then came back over us. This is looking to be very similar to that.”
Sentinel staff writer Leslie Postal, Martin Comas and the Sun Sentinel contributed to this report.
