Potential nor'easter aims for East Coast for Groundhog Day weekend

After a relatively quiet weather week in the East, meteorologists are monitoring a storm system that may impact the Atlantic Coast in time for Groundhog Day weekend.

This storm is expected to gather in the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, before heading northeastward.

"The track of the storm is highly prone to shifting in the coming days, and the exact track of the storm will be a huge factor in how intense the storm will be for a given location," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson.

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With several different possible scenarios throughout the weekend still likely, many residents along the Eastern Seaboard will be left on alert for flooding rain, coastal flooding, snow and gusty winds.

At this time, areas from the Georgia to Maine along the coast, and as far inland as the Great Lakes could be impacted by the storm.

One possible scenario is that the center of the storm could remain over land through the Southeast, and continue along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts through the weekend.

With this storm track, most of the cold air, and thus any snow potential, is likely to stay across the interior locations from the Ohio Valley to the St. Lawrence River Valley.

Warm air from over the Atlantic Ocean will be pulled in on the southern side of the storm, will likely produce precipitation to fall as rain from the Carolinas through the I-95 corridor in the Northeast.

The excessive moisture coming off the ocean will increase the chances for heavy downpours and raise the risk for flooding.

This is especially true for communities hit by rounds of heavy rain and flooding already this year.

Meanwhile, a second scenario is also in play, where the storm gathering in the Gulf of Mexico takes a more easterly track and stays just barely offshore.

"This scenario may end up being more of a close call for coastal cities, as it could stay far enough off the coast to avoid much of the mid-Atlantic," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Eric Leister.

If the storm hugs the coast, precipitation may reach as far inland is the I-95 corridor. This region, being on the northern side of the storm, could experience rain mixing with or changing to snow.

"Even with a track just offshore, temperatures may still be too high for all snow or even some snow for part of the I-95 corridor as there is just not much cold air left over by the time the storm rolls around," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.

"Strengthening storms can make their own cold air, but that does not always happen to the point to make it snow at the coast as we saw last weekend," he added.

In a third scenario, should the storm stay very far offshore, it is possible only areas right along the Southeast coast may receive some precipitation from the storm.

If the potent storm remains farther east, then the door will be open for a weaker storm to press into the interior Northeast late in the weekend.

"With a track out to sea, no precipitation may fall in the coastal Northeast, while snow showers from a separate, weaker storm system move across the Great Lakes and Appalachians," Sosnowski said.

A strong coastal storm will mean beaches from North Carolina to Maine should be prepared for impacts similar to a nor'easter.

Gusty winds, coastal flooding, beach erosion and rough seas could all be possible in such a scenario.

"The same storm could slam Atlantic Canada, in particular Newfoundland with high winds, heavy rain and perhaps even heavy snow late in the weekend to early next week," Sosnowski said.

"There's a lot of snow on the ground in Newfoundland and a storm with surging temperatures, high winds and rain could lead to a disastrous flooding situation for part of the Canada province," he added.

Following this weekend, the weather pattern looks to remain active for the first full week of February, leaving the possibility for more stormy weather in the eastern U.S.

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