Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 off Florida bringing rainy weather; potential depression may head toward Caribbeanday

Bill Kearney, Robin Webb, Angie DiMichele and Shira Moolten, South Florida Sun Sentinel
·4 min read
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FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — A potential tropical cyclone off Florida’s east coast will soon strengthen into a tropical depression or storm as it moves north, forecasters said Thursday, leading the National Hurricane Center to begin issuing warnings and watches.

Meanwhile, a system off Africa is expected to merge with another system to its west and then become a tropical depression this weekend that could potentially head in the general direction of the eastern Caribbean.

The system off Africa is likely to become a tropical depression this weekend or early next week, according to the 2 p.m. advisory Thursday from the National Hurricane Center. Its odds of development increased to 40% in the next two days and 80% within the next seven days.

It is currently expected to curve north before reaching South Florida.

“While it shows a due-west path, there is expected to be a curve to the north,” said Donal Harrigan, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service Miami. “There’s tons of uncertainty as to how far west or east we’ll go with that curve. I’m not seeing anything that raises a large concern of something reaching South Florida. It looks like this thing is going to stay east of us.”

Forecasters began issuing advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 late Thursday morning, which is expected to form as it moves away from Florida’s east coast early Friday. The developing low has been causing heavy rainfall and possible flooding this week in South Florida, and is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm as it approaches the coast of North Carolina on Friday.

The system is not yet a tropical depression, but forecasters have decided to begin issuing advisories ahead of time because it is expected to intensify quickly.

“This possible system is going to develop fast enough that they want to put up watches and warnings,” said Robert Garcia, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service Miami. “So they have the option to put ‘potential tropical cyclone’ to give everyone time to prepare.”

In its latest forecast at 2 p.m. Eastern time Thursday, National Hurricane Center forecasters said the system has a 60% chance of developing in the next two days and a 60% chance within the next seven days.

As of 2 p.m., the system was located about 355 miles southeast of Charleston, South Carolina and 430 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, moving north near 9 mph.

Tropical storm warnings have been issued from Cape Fear in North Carolina to Fenwick Island in Delaware, and a storm surge watch is now in effect from Surf City, North Carolina, to Chincoteague, Virginia.

As a result of the offshore low, South Florida will be increasingly stormy as the week continues, said Garcia. Once the low moves north, there could be a drying trend for the weekend.

“The big thing we’ll need to watch through the week is a chance of heavy rainfall and maybe even flooding, and strong wind gusts from the thunderstorms that could develop,” Garcia said. Flooding could occur through Friday, he said.

“Regardless of development, this low is likely to bring gusty winds to gale force, heavy rain, and high surf to portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic United States late this week and into this weekend,” the National Hurricane Center said.

Meanwhile, a fast-moving Hurricane Nigel was maintaining as a Category 1 storm with 85 mph winds early Thursday, located about 505 miles southeast of Newfoundland, Canada. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from Nigel’s center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles.

Swells from Nigel that have been affecting Bermuda are expected to subside by Thursday night, forecasters said. Nigel is forecast to downgrade to a post-tropical cyclone by Friday.

The NHC, which operates under the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, has forecast 14 to 21 named storms for the 2023 Atlantic season and six to 11 hurricanes, two to five of which would be major hurricanes.

So far this season in the Atlantic, there have been 14 named storms, six of which were hurricanes. Of those, three were major hurricanes, meaning Category 3 or above.

Those were Hurricane Lee, a rare Category 5; Hurricane Franklin, a Category 4; and Hurricane Idalia, which made landfall on Florida’s Big Bend region at Category 3 strength on Aug. 30.

The next named storm would be Ophelia.

Hurricane season officially runs through Nov. 30.