Potential Tropical Cyclone Two forecast to become tropical storm. Invest 95L nears Texas coast
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is forecast to become a tropical storm later today as it continues to move west across the Caribbean.
It's expected to strengthen as it approaches Nicaragua and Costa Rica but may not become a hurricane until it emerges over the Pacific Ocean, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
In the northern Gulf of Mexico, Invest 95L is forecast to move ashore over Texas later today.
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Forecasters said it remains possible it could strengthen into a short-lived tropical depression before moving inland.
Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast for the next two days.
The next names for 2022 Atlantic storms are Bonnie and Colin.
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Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 11 a.m. June 30:
Details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two
Location: 660 miles east of Bluefields, Nicaragua; 1,132 miles southeast of West Palm Beach
Maximum wind speed: 40 mph
Direction: west at 20 mph
Next advisory: 2 p.m.
What's out there and where are they?
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two: At 11 a.m., Potential Tropical Cyclone Two was located 660 miles east of Bluefields, Nicaragua.
The system is moving toward the west near 20 mph, and a continued mostly westward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday.
On the forecast track, the system will move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today through Friday, cross southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica Friday night, and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday.
Invest 95L: Recent satellite and radar imagery indicate showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure near the southern coast of Texas are showing limited signs of organization.
Atlantic tropical wave: A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
How likely are they to strengthen?
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two: Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph, with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through Friday while the system approaches Central America.
Weakening is expected while the system crosses Central America, but restrengthening is forecast on Saturday once it moves over the Pacific Ocean.
Conditions appear conducive for development, and the disturbance is expected become a tropical storm while slowing down over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center.
Formation chance through 48 hours: high, 90 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days: high, 90 percent.
Invest 95L: The disturbance is forecast to turn north and move slowly inland over southeastern Texas later today. Slow development of this system is possible while the low remains over water and it could still become a short-lived tropical depression before it moves inland.
Formation chance through 48 hours: medium, 40 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days: medium, 40 percent.
Atlantic tropical wave: Any development of this system should be slow to occur while the wave moves west-northwest during the next day or two. The wave is forecast to move over the Windward Islands on Friday and then over the eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend, where further development is unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions.
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days: low, 10 percent.
Who is likely to be impacted?
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two: Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce heavy rain across portions of northern Colombia through this morning, then across Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in Nicaragua late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected over San Andres Island on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning areas in Nicaragua and Costa Rica by late Friday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas along the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua on Saturday.
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.
A hurricane watch is in effect for:
Nicaragua/Costa Rica border to Laguna de Perlas, Nicaragua
A tropical storm warning is in effect for:
San Andres, Colombia
Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua
A tropical storm watch is in effect for:
Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to Puerto Sandino Nicaragua
#95L is still disorganized and decoupled from the deeper convection. Regardless it all goes north into southeast Texas and adds to whatever is falling now. Isolated big totals possbile, but tough to pinpoint where. Most likely on the coastal counties. pic.twitter.com/4ALskPKIXn
— Jim Cantore (@JimCantore) June 30, 2022
Invest 95L: Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast for the next few days, according to the Hurricane Center.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the storm will remain isolated but generally limited to the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts into Thursday morning, according to AccuWeather.
Some of the more intense thunderstorms near the Texas coast will bring the risk of strong wind gusts, hail and an isolated tornado or waterspout.
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However, as the system pivots northwestward, showers and thunderstorms will increase in frequency over much of eastern Texas and spread northward over western Louisiana and into southern Arkansas through the end of the week. In this zone, a general 1-2 inches of rain is in store, AccuWeather forecasters said.
The heaviest rainfall will occur from near Houston to just east of Corpus Christi, northward to College Station, Texas, from Thursday to Friday, where a general 4-8 inches is likely. There is the potential for an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall of 16 inches for some locations.
#Invest95L is forecast to bring heavy rain to the western Gulf Coast.
In the long run, this rainfall will be beneficial as this area has been experiencing an extended dry period.
In the short-term, flash flooding will be a possibility.https://t.co/8RInJxhKwh
MG pic.twitter.com/5v7jQDKccY— Weather.us - Weather Forecasts For Professionals (@WeatherdotUS) June 30, 2022
Atlantic tropical wave: It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to the U.S. from the tropical wave.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared during what's expected to be an active hurricane season.
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The next five days
See the National Hurricane Center's five-day graphical tropical weather outlook below.
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's out there?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.
What's next?
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This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: NHC: Invest 95L bringing heavy rain. Tropical storm likely in Caribbean
