Potential tropical depression moving toward eastern Caribbean. What the forecast says

The disturbance in the eastern Tropical Atlantic could strengthen into a tropical depression or storm named Emily over the next few days as it moves west over warmer waters and in the general direction of eastern Caribbean islands, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 8 p.m. Friday advisory.

Tropical Storm Don, in the open waters and not a threat to land, held its 50-mph winds and is forecast to weaken over the weekend.

Here’s the National Hurricane Center’s 11 a.m. Friday advisory on Don and 8 p.m. advisory on the disturbance.

Where is the disturbance?

The tropical wave, designated Invest 95L, was roughly midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles and was producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

That’s what’s happening to this wave, hurricane specialists said in Friday night’s advisory.

According to Brian McNoldy, senior research associate of the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School, “The ocean is VERY warm ahead of it and those ocean temperatures are certainly relevant,” he wrote on his morning Tropical Atlantic Update blog. “Model guidance generally indicates it will reach the Lesser Antilles around Tuesday at tropical storm intensity or possibly Category 1 hurricane.”

The wave’s direction?

“Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, slow development is expected and this system will likely become a tropical depression early next week while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic,” hurricane specialists John Cangialosi and Dave Roberts said in the 8 p.m. advisory.

If the disturbance manages to gain traction as it breaks free from the Convergence Zone and isn’t hampered by Saharan dust, “Those living in or traveling to the Lesser Antilles should prepare for a tropical depression or tropical storm (Emily would be the next name) approaching the area for next Monday into Tuesday,” said WPLG hurricane specialist Michael Lowry on his Eye on the Tropics blog Friday.

▪ Formation chance through 48 hours is at 50%.

▪ Formation chance through seven days is at 70%.

Will the wave affect Florida?

The disturbance is not a threat to Florida currently.

Where is Tropical Storm Don?

Tropical Storm Don was about 1,085 miles west of the Azores, the Portuguese islands in the middle of the north Atlantic Ocean Friday morning.

Where is Don going?

Don was moving west-northwest at 10 mph.

Don’s projected path: The hurricane center forecasts a continued west-northwest motion Friday at a faster speed, followed by a turn to the northwest some time Friday night, and then a turn north over the weekend.

Will Don get stronger?

Don maintained near 50-mph sustained winds with higher gusts Friday morning.

“Little overall change in strength is forecast during the next day or so. Weakening is forecast to begin by Sunday morning,” hurricane specialist Daniel Brown wrote in the 11 a.m. advisory.

Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center.

Will it affect Florida, North Carolina or anywhere in the United States?

On the forecast track, Don should remain over the open waters of the central Atlantic and is not expected to impact land.

What watches or warnings are in effect?

There are no watches or warnings.

When will we know more?

The next update will be at 5 p.m. Friday.

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