As potential Tropical Storm Alex nears Florida, Jacksonville faces some rain and wind, forecasters say

Only a few days into the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season, the strongest storm to hit Mexico this time of year is expected to soak South Florida over the weekend, possibly as Tropical Storm Alex.

But as areas south of Melbourne and Orlando deal with gusty winds and lots of rain, the Jacksonville area should face muggy, sometimes rainy skies and ever-warming temperatures.

Forecasters had already predicted a 65 percent chance of an above-normal hurricane season from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration due to the ongoing La Niña and Atlantic Ocean temperatures.

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NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which six to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher).

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Tropical storm watches were issued Thursday by the National Hurricane Center for South Florida, then upgraded to a warning that night. The warnings were in effect for all of South Florida, including the Keys, Miami to West Palm Beach and Naples.

Weather experts believe the system, remains of Pacific Hurricane Agatha that hit southern Mexico late Monday with heavy rain and 100-mph winds, will become a tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico.

Early Friday a hurricane hunter aircraft indicated that the system’s maximum sustained winds had increased overnight, The Associated Press reported. The system was expected to develop “a well-defined center and become a tropical storm” as it approaches Florida, the Hurricane Center said. A system becomes a tropical storm when winds reach 39 mph.

The Hurricane Center predicts that rainfall up to 10 inches is possible in South Florida, the AP reported. The storm is not expected to produce huge winds or major storm surge, but local flooding is likely and winds could be somewhat strong.

“Heavy rains will begin to affect South Florida and the Keys Friday and continue through Saturday,” the Hurricane Center said in a Friday morning alert.

It could become Tropical Storm Alex before hitting Florida, the Weather Service said.

Jacksonville not a target — this time

For Jacksonville, expect a chance of showers Friday night with a low of 72 degrees, the Weather Service said. That slight chance of rain and thunderstorms continues Saturday with daytime highs around 86 degrees, dropping to a low of 73 Saturday night with a 40 percent chance of showers.

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News partner First Coast News meteorologists predict breezy, onshore winds near 20 mph with higher gusts on Saturday. Breezy, even gusty conditions continue Sunday along the beach, with seas building to 3 to 5 feet and a higher risk of rip currents.

Sunday will also see highs around 87 degrees and a 30 percent chance of showers, then getting breezy Sunday night with a slight chance of thunderstorms and a low of 72 degrees. Monday sees a 30 percent chance of showers and a high of 89 degrees, the Weather Service predicts.

Jacksonville.com will continuously update weather conditions as necessary, with weather service local forecasts at bit.ly/3NjchMp.

dscanlan@jacksonville.com, (904) 359-4549

This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Tropical Storm Alex: Some wind, rain expected in Jacksonville