Power and polish: What you need to know about Miami Marlins’ top right-handed prospects
With sports on hiatus, we’re examining all the top Marlins prospect in a five-part series.
Monday, we examined the Marlins’ top left-handed pitching prospects.
Today, in part 2, we take a look at one of the areas the Marlins are deepest: right-handed starting pitching.
Keep in mind that minor-league baseball reportedly will be canceled this season because of COVID-19, meaning the Marlins prospects might be limited to instructional-league games in Jupiter.
Assessing the Marlins’ top 10 right-handed pitching prospects:
SIXTO SANCHEZ
▪ Where he stands: Sanchez was thoroughly dominant the final month at Double A Jacksonville, allowing three earned runs and 23 hits — with 35 strikeouts — in 40 innings. He closed the season 8-6 with a 2.76 ERA, mostly at Double A. He didn’t pitch in spring training, but the Marlins say that was part of the plan and that he’s not injured.
▪ Ranking: MLB.com rates Sanchez the Marlins’ No. 1 overall prospect and 22nd in baseball.
▪ What they’re saying: Marlins executive Michael Hill: “You are talking about a pitcher who has multiple well-above average pitches - his fastball, his slider, his change-up. His command of all of those pitches, his presence on the mound, his ability to repeat his delivery [all stand out]. Tremendous talent.”
▪ What they’re saying part 2: From MLB.com’s scouting report: “Sanchez’s combination of stuff and command belongs in the discussion of the best among pitching prospects. His fastballs usually park at 95-99 mph, with a two-seamer that features power sink and a four-seamer that climbs into triple digits. His best secondary offering is a change-up that dives at the plate, and he also has good feel for manipulating a hard slider that can be a plus pitch at times.... As long as he stays healthy, he has the ingredients to become Miami’s best starter since the late Jose Fernandez.”
▪ The projection: Top of the rotation type starter. There’s a real chance he could be promoted later this summer if there’s an MLB season.
EDWARD CABRERA
▪ Where he stands: Emerged last season as a high-end prospect, finishing 9-4 with a 2.23 ERA (between Double A and Single A) after missing a few weeks with a bruise on his elbow that became infected. The numbers were dominant: just 65 hits allowed and 116 strikeouts in 96 2/3 innings. At Double A, he was 4-1 with a 2.56 ERA.
▪ Ranking: MLB.com rates Cabrera the Marlins’ No. 5 prospect and the No. 85 prospect in baseball.
▪ What they’re saying part 1: Hill: “Another one of those young arms that projects middle of the rotation or better with three pitches and an attitude. You are talking about a 6-6, right handed pitcher, loose arm action, ball just explodes out of his hand.”
▪ What they’re saying part 2: From MLB.com’s scouting report: “Cabrera’s main pitch is a 93-97 mph fastball that occasionally reaches triple digits, and its heavy life plus the downhill plane he creates with his 6-foot-4 frame generate a lot of ground balls. He developed a more consistent slider last season, continuing to operate at 82-85 mph while displaying more bite....
“Though Cabrera still will lapse into overthrowing at times, that’s happening less frequently than it did in the past. He’s doing a better job of throwing strikes and commanding his pitches, quieting talk that he’d wind up in the bullpen if he couldn’t add more polish. If all goes according to plan, Sixto Sanchez and Cabrera should headline Miami’s rotation in the near future.”
▪ The projection: Top of the rotation type starter. One scout from another team — who’s assigned to the Marlins and other NL East teams — said he believes Cabrera will ultimately be better than Sanchez.
JORGE GUZMAN
▪ Where he stands: Acquired with infielder Jose Devers in the Giancarlo Stanton trade with the Yankees, Guzman pitched better than perhaps anybody in the system over the final month last season. Over his final 30 innings at Jacksonville, he allowed four runs and just six hits while striking out 35.
His final season numbers: 7-11, 3.50 ERA, all at Jacksonville.
He’s come a long way from the pitcher who failed to win any of his first 25 starts in the Marlins organization. But he walked five and allowed five runs in just 1 ⅔ innings in the spring.
▪ Ranking: MLB.com rates Guzman the Marlins’ No. 19 prospect.
▪ What they’re saying: Hill: “You look at where he is now; he’s pitching in the upper 90s — pitching and [not just throwing]. You put a plus change-up there and then a curveball which he was overthrowing a little bit, another plus pitch and you get excited with what these guys will eventually be.”
▪ The metrics perspective: From fangraphs: “Guzman continues to start and he certainly has the stuff for it... but his inability to throw strikes (except for an outlier 2017, his walk rate has always been well over 10 percent) still causes relief projection.”
▪ The projection: Two scouts have insisted to me that they see him as a future back-end bullpen piece because of his velocity (100 mph-plus fastball), but the Marlins seem determined to make it work with Guzman as a starter, which is his clear preference.
NICK NEIDERT
▪ Where he stands: Missed part of year with knee injury and was 3-5, 4.67 ERA in 13 starts, but pitched well in Arizona Fall League, then allowed seven hits and one run (with six strikeouts) in six innings in spring training.
▪ Ranking: MLB.com rates him No. 10 among all Marlins prospects.
▪ What they’re saying: From Fangraphs.com: “Otherwise evocative of a back-end starter, Neidert’s out-pitch changeup and location-reliant breaking balls all work and are aided by some of his cross body deception. He doesn’t throw very hard, but the other components should enable him to be more of a No. 4/5.”
▪ The projection: Potential mid-to-back of rotation starter.
JORDAN HOLLOWAY
▪ Where he stands: The stats were unimpressive at Jupiter (4-11, 4.45 ERA), but the Marlins say that’s not reflective of his quality stuff, two years removed from Tommy John surgery. The concern is the 66 walks in 95 innings last season.
▪ Ranking: MLB.com rates him the Marlins’ No. 22 overall prospect.
▪ What they’re saying part 1: Hill: “He’s consistently working 97 to 100 mph as a starting pitching. The stuff is totally there. This guy is learning how to pitch again coming off of surgery.”
▪ What they’re saying part 2: From fangraphs: “Because Holloway holds his velocity deep into games and could use the reps, it makes sense for Miami to continue developing him as a starter. But ultimately, we think the delivery (stiff and upright with a shorter stride) pushes him to the bullpen.”
▪ The projection: Reliever or back-end starter.
EVAN FITTERER
▪ Where he stands: The Marlins’ fifth round pick last June - who bypassed a scholarship offer from his hometown UCLA - had a 2.38 ERA in 19 strikeouts in 22 ⅔ innings over nine games, including eight starts. His ground ball rate in this tiny sample size was the best in the Marlins farm system (66.7 percent).
▪ Ranking: MLB.com rates him the Marlins’ No. 20 overall prospect.
▪ What they’re saying: From fangraphs: “Fitterer was often the first player mentioned by our sources who saw the Marlins GCL/instructal group, as he has a traditional fastball/overhand curveball suite and the sort of pitchability you’d expect of an older Southern California high schooler.”
▪ The projection: Too early to tell, but the stuff gives him a real chance to be a future rotation piece.
BREIDY ENCARNACION
▪ Where he stands: Was 4-0 with a 1.91 ERA in the Dominican Summer League, with 39 base-runners and 57 strikeouts in 47 innings.
▪ Ranking: MLB.com’s No. 22 Marlins prospect.
▪ What they’re saying: From Fangraphs: “He doesn’t throw all that hard right now, but Encarnacion is pretty projectable and his fastball has abnormal spin for a heater with fringe velocity, so if he does throw harder, it has a chance to miss a lot of bats. He’s the best teenage arm in this system.”
▪ The projection: Fangraphs says he has a chance to be “a league average starter in time.”
HUMBERTO MEJIA
▪ Where he stands: Was 5-2 with a 2.09 ERA in two levels of A ball last season, allowing batters to hit just .176 off him, with 89 strikeouts in 90 innings. Struck out two and walked two in one scoreless inning in spring training.
▪ Ranking: MLB.com ranks him as the Marlins’ No. 23 prospect.
▪ What they’re saying: From fangraphs: “He needs to locate his fastball at the top of the zone more often and should be a fine middle reliever if that — and a velocity boost out of the bullpen — occurs.”
▪ The projection: The Marlins added him to the 40-man roster this winter, and the fastball and curveball are good enough to give him a chance, though he’s already 23 and hasn’t pitched at Double A yet.
JOSH ROBERSON
▪ Where he stands: The Marlins’ 12th-round pick in the 2017 draft was 4-4 with a 2.25 ERA in 14 starts at low-Class A Clinton last season. Batters hit .238 off him in Clinton, and .217 off him in two minor league seasons.
▪ Ranking: Fangraphs ranks him 24th among all Marlins prospects.
▪ What’s they’re saying: From Fangraphs: “He’ll flash a very nasty, two-plane breaking ball and might throw harder (and stay healthy) in a bullpen role. He needs to be added to the 40-man next offseason, which probably increases the bullpen likelihood.”
▪ The projection: He would have gone higher than the 12th round (out of UNC Wilmington) in the 2017 draft if he hadn’t had Tommy John surgery a couple of weeks before that draft. Throws up to 97 mph with a sharp curve, so he has a chance.
STERLING SHARP
▪ Where he stands: Plucked from Washington’s system in last December’s Rule 5 draft, Sharp spent most of last season with the Double A Harrisburg Senators, finishing 5-3 with a 3.99 ERA over nine starts.
He struck out 45 while walking 14 in 49 2/3 innings and gave up just one home run last season. He missed about three months in the middle of the season with an oblique injury. Was very good in spring training, with a 1.13 ERA and nine strikeouts in eight innings; batters hit .120 off him.
▪ Ranking: MLB.com’s No. 28 Marlins prospect.
▪ What they’re saying: Marlins’ Hill: “We got a lot of good feedback from him. This is not a high-velocity guy. This is a different skill set and tool package than other guys in our pen. This is a guy who can put the ball on the ground, has a solid average to above-average change-up and can command his fastball.”
▪ The projection: The Marlins see him as a reliever, potentially in the seventh or eighth innings. Fangraphs says “his frame, athleticism, and nomadic, small-school pedigree give him an outside shot to become a No. 4/5 starter if he can somehow find more velocity or a better breaking ball.”
Here’s my look at the Marlins’ top five left-handed pitching prospects.
Coming Wednesday: A look at the Marlins top outfield prospects.
