Predicting rest of Carolina Panthers’ 2023 season: When will Frank Reich win first game?

The Carolina Panthers have staggered to a listless 0-5 start under head coach Frank Reich. As the NFL’s only winless team through five weeks, the Charlotte-based franchise has become an early punchline for national pundits on TV and fans on social media.

And while there’s clear evidence to support that this season was always going to be a rebuild of sorts, this retooling of the organization — at least in the early goings — has been nothing short of disastrous. Even this writer (who had relatively tepid expectations for the Panthers with an 8-9 preseason projection) has been blown away by how ineffective and undisciplined the squad has been out of the gate.

Also, with the Panthers still searching for their first victory of the season, the mega-trade for this year’s first overall draft pick — to land rookie quarterback Bryce Young — looms large.

Unlike other struggling franchises such as the Minnesota Vikings, Chicago Bears and Arizona Cardinals, the Panthers don’t have a potential top-5 pick awaiting them. Instead, the Bears, who made the blockbuster trade with Carolina in March, own the Panthers’ 2024 pick, which currently is positioned as the first overall selection.

So, with 12 games left in the season, the Panthers’ campaign becomes a two-fold mission to limit the egg on the franchise’s face. The Panthers need to show that Young was worth the epic trade up to No. 1, while also preventing the Bears from capitalizing on their misfortunes at an alarming rate.

With that in mind, The Observer decided to project the rest of the Panthers’ season to get an updated prediction of their 2023 record:

Week 6: @ Miami Dolphins (4-1)

Prediction: Loss (0-6)

The Dolphins have the league’s most explosive offense. With the Panthers yet to score 30 points in a game, it’s hard to see Carolina competing with a squad that puts up an average of 37.5 points per contest. Carolina will head into the bye week winless and searching for answers (and scapegoats).

Week 8: vs. Houston Texans (2-3)

Prediction: Loss (0-7)

The showdown between the top two picks in this year’s draft should fill up Bank of America Stadium — if only for the drama of Young vs. C.J. Stroud. Young has looked pedestrian through four starts, while Stroud has exceeded most pundits’ expectations.

The Panthers have struggled largely due to a lack of explosive plays on offense. They’ve also turned the ball over quite a bit. But Stroud just set the NFL record for most throws to start a career without a pick, and the rookie QB has regularly come up with big plays in the passing game. This is a perfect storm for disappointment and sorrow.

Week 9: vs. Indianapolis Colts (3-2)

Prediction: Win (1-7)

UPDATE: The Colts placed rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson — this year’s fourth overall pick — on injured reserve Wednesday with an AC joint injury in his throwing shoulder. And with Reich facing his former squad, one would imagine that the head coach will throw everything he has at the Colts.

Indianapolis does have Jonathan Taylor back in the lineup, and fellow running back, Zack Moss, is coming off an epic Week 5 performance, but the Panthers should be able to put up enough points to compete with and upset the Colts at home.

This game will come down to the run defense of the Panthers, so there are no guarantees.

Week 10: @ Chicago Bears (1-4)

Prediction: Win (2-7)

Thursday night games tend to lead to fluky results. With a pair of bottom-feeders battling in prime time, it’s fair to wonder if the Panthers can pull off a win on the road.

The Panthers have several reasons to want this game. After making the mega-trade in March, the Panthers losing this one would not only hurt them in the standings but in the trade compensation department as well. Sure, the Bears put up 40 points on the Washington Commanders, but the Panthers have a surprisingly better pass defense than Ron Rivera’s crew.

While it’s easy to project that DJ Moore will have a massive game, Carolina could get the last laugh. In a battle of bad teams, the Panthers should want it more. But will that matter?

Week 11: vs. Dallas Cowboys (3-2)

Prediction: Loss (2-8)

After a special start to the season, Dallas has crashed down to reality a bit in recent weeks. Still, the Cowboys have all the makings of a playoff squad, and their roster is clearly better than the Panthers’ squad from top to bottom.

The road attendance for this game will be of epic proportions, as Cowboys fans travel well, and it’s hard to see PSL owners hanging onto their tickets in droves after this start to the season. This outing may make last year’s San Francisco game look like a pleasant gathering at the home base.

Week 12: @ Tennessee Titans (2-3)

Prediction: Win (3-8)

Color me unimpressed with the Nashville squad. Through five weeks, the Titans are averaging a mediocre 18 points per game.

And while Derrick Henry is still a juggernaut out of the backfield, the Titans aren’t particularly compelling in the passing game. This feels like a road game that the Panthers can steal if they avoid turnovers — which is easier said than done.

Week 13: @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1)

Prediction: Loss (3-9)

The Buccaneers have been the surprise of the NFC South thus far this season. Most pundits had Tampa Bay in the Panthers’ shoes entering the season, but Todd Bowles’ group has achieved an excellent start with former Carolina quarterback Baker Mayfield under center.

The Buccaneers have an aggressive defense and several weapons on offense. If Mayfield plays well, it’ll be hard for Reich, Young and company to keep up on the road.

Week 14: @ New Orleans Saints (3-2)

Prediction: Loss (3-10)

The Saints absolutely demolished the New England Patriots in Week 5. They also got the best of the Panthers on the road in Week 2.

While the Saints might be short-term thinkers with their roster, New Orleans is off to a strong enough start to contend for the division and a playoff spot. It’s hard to see Reich and the Process Blue crew pulling off a road upset at the Superdome, especially with the Saints pushing toward the postseason.

Week 15: vs. Atlanta Falcons (3-2)

Prediction: Win (4-10)

The Falcons’ Week 1 win against the Panthers wasn’t all that impressive. Desmond Ridder and the Atlanta offense played small ball after Carolina made the passing game one-dimensional. If not for two back-breaking picks by Young in his NFL debut, the Panthers probably get the win in the opener.

With the rivalry heading to Charlotte, the Panthers can pounce as a desperate team looking to avoid a franchise-low record. This final stretch needs to be stellar for Young, and a strong performance shouldn’t be beyond his reach here.

Week 16: vs. Green Bay Packers (2-3)

Prediction: Win (5-10)

Jordan Love has gotten off to an up-and-down start this season, and the Packers’ defense is lacking in consistent juice. The Packers are particularly bad against the run, which could be something the Panthers can exploit if they ever figure out their offensive line and backfield woes.

Again, the Panthers need Young to close out strong and a home win against the Packers, in upset fashion, is relatively doable. It’s hard to have hope for any sort of success after this lame start, but this Panthers team isn’t as bad as its record indicates.

Week 17: @ Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2)

Prediction: Loss (5-11)

The Jaguars will be pushing towards the postseason ahead of the new year. While the Panthers need to have an offensive identity by 2024, the Jaguars are just a better overall team from quarterback to safety.

Trevor Lawrence has the ability to tear through this Panthers defense with ease. Also, don’t sleep on the Jags’ rushing attack against Carolina’s porous run defense.

Week 18: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1)

Prediction: Loss (5-12)

It seems like every year, a mediocre (or worse) team plays spoiler to a playoff-hopeful squad to end the season (just ask Reich about Jacksonville in 2021). But it’s hard to feel like the Panthers will be that team this campaign.

The Buccaneers appear to be game for a division run in a mediocre four-team race, and the Panthers have been nothing but pitiful through five weeks. Finishing 1-5 in the division seems like a realistic outlook for Carolina at this point.

Final Prediction: 5-12.

The Panthers seem destined to finish within the scrapheap of the NFL this season. Despite the pomp and circumstance of the lauded coaching staff, and the optimism surrounding Young and the top talent on defense ahead of the season, this group has amounted to what looks like the worst team in a mediocre division. The Panthers are last in the standings, and the results have matched up to the tape at this point.

Getting a handful of wins, even with a fairly manageable second-half schedule, feels like a relatively optimistic outlook at this point. This squad is destined for another big offseason of change, and deservedly so.