Predictions, keys to victory, betting line for the Mountain West championship game

The Boise State football team has a chance to make history on Saturday, but the Broncos are also hoping history doesn’t repeat itself.

The Broncos’ four Mountain West championships already are the most of current conference members. If Boise State wins in Saturday’s title game against Fresno State (2 p.m., Fox), it will move ahead of TCU, Utah and BYU for the most titles in league history.

Winning a conference title is a goal the Broncos have been working since January to achieve, tight end Riley Smith said.

“We’ve just been focused on this game,” Smith said. “We’re going to leave it all on the field and leave no regrets.”

Boise State fans have seen this story before, though.

In 2018, the Broncos welcomed Fresno State to Albertsons Stadium for a regular-season matchup and won 24-17. Less than a month later, the Bulldogs returned and scored a 19-16 victory in overtime to win the Mountain West title.

Boise State coach Andy Avalos says every week that the Broncos have to be at their best to win in the Mountain West. He said that’s especially true on Saturday against Fresno, which has won seven straight games since losing 40-20 in Albertsons Stadium on Oct. 8.

The Bulldogs (8-4, 7-1 Mountain West) aren’t the only confident bunch heading into Saturday’s title game, Avalos said. The Broncos (9-3, 8-0) have won 7 of 8 since falling to 2-2 earlier this season after a loss to major underdog UTEP.

“Our whole family here, we’ve all grown, we’ve been resilient and we’ve pushed forward,” Avalos said. “We’re going to need to draw on our experiences and be at our best this week.”

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Keys to victory

Get in Haener’s face: Fresno State quarterback Jake Haener is mobile enough to get out of trouble, but he’s not likely to match Boise State quarterback Taylen Green’s 91-yard touchdown run from a week ago. What Haener is very capable of doing is carving a defense up like a Thanksgiving turkey if he has time in the pocket. The Broncos can’t afford to give him that time.

Haener is completing 73.5 percent of his passes. He has racked up 2,432 passing yards, 17 touchdowns and just three interceptions in eight games, and thrown for 6,528 yards and 50 touchdowns the past two seasons.

Injuries and transfers have forced the Broncos to turn to young pass rushers in recent weeks. George Tarlas is out for the season with a hip injury, Isaiah Bagnah hit the transfer portal, and while he’s taken minimal part in practice, edge rusher Demitri Washington hasn’t played since Boise State’s loss to BYU on Nov. 5. He’s unlikely to play on Saturday.

That means junior college transfer Deven Wright and Gabe Hunter will get the nod at edge. Wright posted the first sack of his Boise State career a few weeks ago against Nevada. Hunter snagged his second interception of the season last week against Utah State. Middle linebacker Andrew Simpson also continues to show promise as a pass rusher. He got to the quarterback last week for his third sack of the season.

Keep the defense guessing: Green’s rushing ability, combined with that of backs George Holani and Ashton Jeanty, creates a nearly impossible puzzle for defenses to crack. Boise State’s passing game has also grown by leaps and bounds since Green took over as the starting quarterback against San Diego State on Sept. 30. The redshirt freshman racked up a career-high four touchdown passes last week against Utah State. The Broncos need to continue to be versatile and well-rounded.

Fresno State’s defense hasn’t been stellar. The Bulldogs are giving up 20.8 points and almost 160 rushing yards a game. They’re also likely to be without the Mountain West’s top pass rusher, defensive end David Perales, who leads the conference with 10 sacks but suffered an ankle injury last week against Wyoming. Fresno State coach Jeff Tedford said Monday that Perales was “day-to-day.”

The Broncos need to capitalize with creative, aggressive play calling. They need to feed Holani and Jeanty, and also let Green create plays with his legs, while continuing to throw deep the way they have in recent weeks.

Green needs to play a clean game: Green has played relatively mistake free in his eight starts. He has thrown 12 touchdown passes and just four interceptions, and he hasn’t been picked off since the Broncos’ win at Air Force on Oct. 22. The Broncos’ young quarterback needs to put on another mistake-free performance if Boise State is going to win a Mountain West title. This is not the game for him to play like a freshman. Fresno State has a star at quarterback and the weapons on offense to make the Broncos’ pay if Green does struggle.

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Key matchups

Boise State LB DJ Schramm vs. Fresno State RB Jordan Mims: Schramm’s is one of the best stories of the season. He spent the past four years plugging away on special teams, but he got his chance to start as a fifth-year senior, and he’s made the most of it. Schramm leads the Broncos and ranks No. 8 in the Mountain West with 93 tackles, and he was named second-team all-conference on Tuesday. He has posted double-digit tackles in five games, including a career-high 16 at UTEP and 15 last week against Utah State.

Schramm is going to have his hands full Saturday while trying to corral one of the most explosive running backs in the conference. Mims ranks No. 2 in the Mountain West with 1,078 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground. Holani ranks No. 3 with 1,059 yards, and he’s tied for No. 4 with 10 rushing touchdowns. Air Force’s Brad Roberts leads the conference with 1,612 yards and 15 touchdowns.

“Not only can he pound it between the tackles, they split him out it empty (sets), he’s a great route runner, he can catch the ball out of the backfield on wheel and option routes, and he’s a really good pass protector,” Boise State defensive coordinator Spencer Danielson said of Mims.

Boise State CB Caleb Biggers vs. Fresno State WR Jalen Moreno-Cropper: Fresno State’s offense was dangerous even after Haener went down with an ankle injury in the Bulldogs’ loss to USC on Sept. 17. A huge reason for that is a deep group of wide receivers, led by Moreno-Cropper. The 6-foot, 180-pound senior leads the Bulldogs with 74 catches for 984 yards. His five touchdown catches are tied with fellow receiver Nikko Remigio for the most on the team.

Biggers has emerged as Boise State’s top corner, especially since Markel Reed was lost to an injury in the season opener at Oregon State. Biggers is an aggressive, physical player who often excels in man-to-man coverage, but his attacking nature has made him susceptible to getting beat deep. Biggers is going to have to win one-on-one matchups with Moreno-Cropper on Saturday.

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Predictions

Boise State is a 3-point favorite, according to Las Vegas, and the over/under is 54 points. The Broncos are 17-7 all-time against the Bulldogs, and Boise State is 11-2 in the series at Albertsons Stadium, including a 40-20 win on Oct. 8

Boise State is 16-4 in its past 20 regular-season games as a favorite at home, and the Broncos are 13-7 against the spread. The Broncos are 2-2 in their past four appearances in the Mountain West championship, including wins over Hawaii in 2019 and Fresno State in 2017.

Fresno State is 3-17 in its past 20 regular-season games as an underdog on the road, and the Bulldogs are 11-9 ATS.

My pick (9-3 straight up, 8-4 ATS): Boise State is not facing the same team it dominated on Oct. 8. Haener and safety Evan Williams are two of the best players in the Mountain West, regardless of position, and neither played in that game. Haener is tough as nails, and he isn’t going to get rattled. Williams is a game changer on defense and special teams.

That being said, I think Boise State’s defense is on another level when compared to Fresno State’s, especially if Perales doesn’t play. This game has the potential to turn into a high-scoring affair, but the Broncos make one more stop than the Bulldogs and win the conference title on a late field goal by kicker Jonah Dalmas. Final score: Boise State 31, Fresno State 28

Betting expert Lee Sterling of Paramount Sports, who appears weekly on KTIK (7-4 straight up, 4-7 ATS): That first game, the backup quarterback that came in, he had a rough, rough game. You can see the difference between their starter and Logan Fife, who was the backup that day. Things didn’t go well for Fresno State in that game, but it was pretty tight. Since Haener came back, and I don’t know if he’s 100%, he’s thrown 13 touchdowns and just two interceptions and he’s completing 74.7% of his passes for almost 1,600 yards. Also, Fresno State’s defense held Wyoming to 87 rushing yards, which is very impressive. I think it’s going to be an instant classic and Fresno State wins the game. Final score: Fresno State 38, Boise State 37

FRESNO STATE AT BOISE STATE

When: 2 p.m. Saturday

Where: Albertsons Stadium

TV: Fox (Tim Brando, Spencer Tillman, Petros Papadakis)

Radio: KBOI 670 AM/93.1 FM (Bob Behler, Pete Cavender)

Records: Boise State 9-3, 8-0 MW; Fresno State 8-4, 7-1 MW

Series: Boise State is 17-7 all-time against Fresno State, including a 40-20 victory at home earlier this season.

Vegas line: Boise State by 3

Weather: High of 39 degrees, 4% chance of rain, 14 mph wind