Predictions for KU, K-State, Mizzou and the best bets for college football bowl games

No one was happier about the start of bowl season than yours truly.

Why?

Because it gave me a chance to reset my thinking on college football bets. A fresh start was needed after a disappointing season of picks left me staring at a 36-44-2 record against the spread.

After failing to yield a profit during the regular season I have renewed hope at a strong showing in December and January. Fortunately, bowl games are a completely different animal. With transfers and “opt outs” becoming the norm this time of year, these matchups are starting to feel like soccer friendlies.

Winning isn’t the main objective for every team.

Motivation is a big factor. So is roster continuity, coaching stability, game location and kickoff time.

College football is different this time of year. Let’s see if we can find some winners.

The bowl games will be televised on all major networks ESPN, ABC, CBS and Fox. ESPN also just launched ESPN Bet which will have odds and promos this year.

Every week, Kansas State beat writer Kellis Robinett takes a look at the entire college football schedule and breaks down a dozen or so games that are worth betting on. Here are his thoughts on various betting lines and games for bowl season:

Kansas State (-3) vs. N.C. State at Pop-Tarts Bowl

This line opened with K-State as a touchdown favorite, but it has come down to a field goal now that transfers and “opt outs” have drastically altered the outlook for both teams.

The Wildcats will head to Orlando without starting quarterback Will Howard, All-Big 12 tight end Ben Sinnott, hard-hitting safety Kobe Savage and top receiver Phillip Brooks.

K-State will be without at least 18 players in this game.

North Carolina State is in a similar situation. You could call this the Transfer Bowl. But the majority of its departing transfers have not been as impactful as K-State. The Wolfpack will be playing without top quarterback MJ Morris, but Brennan Armstrong led them to three straight wins down the stretch to reach this game.

Avery Johnson will give the Wildcats a new look on offense. So will having an interim coordinator, likely Conor Riley, calling plays in the press box.

There could be a high degree of variance in this game, which might make this a good opportunity to be on the underdog. It’s also interesting that N.C. State is catching points after winning nine games this year.

But if Johnson is as electric as K-State fans expect him to be, the Wildcats could cover the spread. If you’re looking to back K-State, I would recommend waiting. This line could end up closer to a pick on game day.

Kansas (-12.5) vs. UNLV at Guaranteed Rate Bowl

The opportunity for a boatload of points exists in Phoenix.

So much so that it might be worth placing a small bet on this being the highest-scoring bowl of the season at odds of around seven-to-one. The over/under is 64.5.

The Jayhawks should put up tons of points, even without offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki. This is a chance for his replacement to prove he deserves the job. Jason Bean and Devin Neal will be motivated to lead KU to a bowl victory.

I don’t see UNLV keeping up for a full four quarters, but the Rebels will be able to find the end zone with their GoGo offense.

Missouri (-2.5) vs. Ohio State at Cotton Bowl

Congratulations are in order if you grabbed Missouri +6.5 when the opening line for this game was released.

The rest of us are left to wonder if the Tigers are worth betting on as a favorite against one of the most storied programs in all of college football.

I still think there is value on the Tigers, even now that they have lost eight points of value against the spread. Ohio State has been decimated by transfers and “opt outs.” The Buckeyes won’t have several of their top playmakers, including quarterback Kyle McCord.

Meanwhile, the Tigers should be near full strength.

Missouri will also care much more about this game than Ohio State. Winning a New Year’s Six Bowl would go down as one of the best victories in school history. This is a glorified exhibition for the Buckeyes.

Best Bets

Last Week: 3-4

Season Record: 36-44-2

Arizona (-2.5) vs. Oklahoma: I bet on the Wildcats as soon as I saw that Dillon Gabriel was entering the transfer portal. Oklahoma hasn’t looked good without Gabriel on the field over the past two seasons. The Sooners will give the ball to a former five-star recruit at the Alamo Bowl, but the offense won’t be the same. Arizona was one of the best teams in the entire country during the second half of the season and I expect it to keep winning in the postseason. Pick: Arizona.

Missouri (ML) vs. Ohio State: Treat yourself this holiday season and bet the Tigers on the money line instead of laying a small number of points at the Cotton Bowl. Missouri will be fired up to win this game. Ohio State might sleep walk through the whole thing. Pick: Missouri.

Kansas (-12.5) vs. UNLV: The Jayhawks should light up the scoreboard while playing inside against a mediocre defense. The Rebels struggled late in the season and failed to win or cover in their final two games, which were both high scoring. I like KU and the over in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. Pick: Kansas.

New Mexico State (-3.5) vs. Fresno State: The Aggies were one of the biggest surprises in college football season. Few, if any, expected them to win 10 games after they began the year with a home loss to Massachusetts. Jerry Kill did a terrific job with this team. And now it gets to play close to home in the New Mexico Bowl against a Fresno State team that limped to the finish line. The Bulldogs will also be without their head coach, as Jeff Tedford deals with health concerns. Pick: New Mexico State.

Oklahoma State (+3) vs. Texas A&M: The wrong team seems favored here. The Cowboys have everything you want in an underdog during bowl season. They aren’t dealing with a coaching change or a mass exodus of transfers. They should be motivated to play and end their year with a bang. Meanwhile, a bunch of interim coaches will lead Texas A&M at the Texas Bowl. Ollie Gordon should have a big day on the ground. Mike Gundy is also 11-6 against the spread in bowl games. Pick: Oklahoma State.

Washington (+4.5) vs. Texas: You can’t run on Texas. It simply can’t be done. That gave the Longhorns a massive advantage over most Big 12 opponents, especially Oklahoma State in the conference title game. But their excellent run defense may not help them at the Sugar Bowl against Washington, which has a pass-happy offense behind quarterback Michael Penix. I won’t be surprised if the Huskies win this game. They can definitely do enough to stay within this number. Pick: Washington.

Wyoming (-3) vs. Toledo: The Cowboys were one of the best teams in the Mountain West this season and now they will be motivated to send Craig Bohl into retirement with a win at the Arizona Bowl. Toledo will also be without quarterback Dequan Finn, who is transferring. Pick: Wyoming.

Upset pick of bowl season

Florida State (+490) vs. Georgia: This bet has no chance if the Bulldogs play well at the Orange Bowl. But will they really be motivated to do that? You know the Seminoles will be fired up to prove they belonged in the College Football Playoff after an undefeated regular season. They might be worth a big swing here.

Other lines worth considering

Sun Belt to lead all conferences in bowl wins (+100): The Sun Belt has a major advantage in this department, because it is sending a whopping 12 teams to bowl games. Even a .500 record this bowl season could be enough to cash this ticket.

Big 12 over 5.5 bowl wins (-115): Big 12 teams are favored in seven of their bowl games, and I am picking Oklahoma State to win as an underdog. Seems like an over to me.

Tennessee vs. Iowa as the lowest-scoring bowl game (+450): The Hawkeyes are involved in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl, which is all the info I need to consider making this bet. The O/U is only 36.5.

Tennessee (-8.5) vs. Iowa: The Volunteers may only need nine points to cover this spread. Lean: Tennessee.

Oregon (-17.5) vs. Liberty: Bo Nix has said he will play in the Fiesta Bowl, which should make this a blowout. Liberty was the class of Conference-USA all season, but it played an embarrassingly soft schedule. I don’t think the Flames can handle this much of a step up in class. Lean: Oregon.

Georgia Southern (-3) vs. Ohio: If you’re looking to bet the very first bowl game on the slate, why not take a shot at Georgia Southern? It has a high-powered offense and Ohio will be without its starting quarterback. Lean: Georgia Southern.

UTSA (-13) vs. Marshall: Road Runners quarterback Frank Harris deserves to leave college after all these years with a blowout victory in a bowl game. Lean: UTSA.