Be prepared for Ian’s ‘life-threatening’ storm surge. What to expect in Manatee County.

Hurricane Ian is predicted to push “extreme and life-threatening” levels of water onto Florida’s west coast over the coming days.

A storm surge warning is now in effect for the Anclote River southward to Flamingo and the Dry Tortugas, including Tampa Bay and the Bradenton-Sarasota area.

A storm surge warning means that “life-threatening inundation” from rising water moving inland could occur during the next 36 hours within the warning area.

Locally, the National Weather Service is predicting up to 7-10 feet of storm surge for Bradenton, Anna Maria Island and the upper half of Longboat Key, with a potential for more than nine feet of flooding above dry ground.

From the middle of Longboat Key south to Englewood, 5-8 feet is projected.

Storm surge estimates for parts of the Tampa Bay area are as high as 15 feet, Manatee County administrator Scott Hopes said during a Monday storm briefing.

Ian is also predicted to slow down in the Gulf of Mexico as it passes the Tampa Bay area. The storm’s sluggish pace could likely prolong wind and storm surge impacts to the coastal areas.

Bradenton area storm surge forecast

A mandatory evacuation has been ordered for Manatee County’s Zone A and B, which includes Anna Maria Island and other high-risk coastal areas. A voluntary and “highly-recommended” evacuation advisory is in place for Zone C.

Nearly the entire state of Florida could see storm surge from Hurricane Ian.
Nearly the entire state of Florida could see storm surge from Hurricane Ian.

“You do not want to decide to evacuate when you see water coming under the door of your home,” Hopes said Monday. “Now is the time to prepare. (Tuesday) morning is the time to evacuate to your safe place of choice.”

“Plan for extreme life-threatening storm surge flooding greater than 9 feet above ground,” an advisory for the area says. “Evacuation efforts should soon be brought to completion before driving conditions become unsafe.”

Local flooding is also possible as storm surge levels rise:

  • A 3 foot surge above high tide can overtop Anna Maria Island and begins to flood homes along the Manatee River.

  • A 4 foot surge above high tide begins to flood homes near Interstate 75 and the Manatee River.

  • A 6 foot surge above high tide floods areas south of Port Manatee to U.S. 41.

Potential storm surge impacts:

  • Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings, with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.

  • Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed.

  • Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.

  • Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many small craft broken away from moorings, especially in unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.

  • A 3-foot surge above high tide can overtop Anna Maria Island and begins to flood homes along the Manatee River; a 4 foot surge above high tide begins to flood homes near Interstate 75 and the Manatee River; a 6 foot surge above high tide floods areas south of Port Manatee to U.S. 41.

Inland Manatee County flooding threat

The inland areas of Parrish, Myakka City and Lakewood Ranch are predicted to see little to no storm surge flooding, NWS said Monday, but they still face other threats from the water dumped by the storm.

With up to 8 inches of rainfall predicted, inland areas of Manatee County could see flash flooding and dangerous road conditions. These areas remain under a flood watch Monday evening.

Flash flooding potential for Southwest Florida is moderate over the coming days as Hurricane Ian churns up the coast, forecasters predict.
Flash flooding potential for Southwest Florida is moderate over the coming days as Hurricane Ian churns up the coast, forecasters predict.

Miami Herald staff writer Alex Harris contributed to this report.