President Biden, don't back down on Taiwan

Editor's note: The date in the first sentence has been corrected since the initial publication.

On June 12, 1987, President Reagan spoke at the Brandenburg Gate of the Berlin Wall. His advisors urged caution, saying essentially, “You must not provoke the Soviet Union. War might be the result.”

Reagan didn’t take the bait. He didn’t follow Prime Minister Nevil Chamberlin in his famous capitulation to Hitler at Munich. Instead in a very Churchillian moment, he challenged the prevailing fear and shouted, “Mr. Gorbachev tear down this wall.”

Today, while we are consumed with dickering over trillions in domestic social candy, our most serious and capable foreign adversary is not so constrained. China is stuffing huge ships with tanks and landing craft and practicing for an invasion of an island that from the end of World War II until October 25, 1971, as the Republic of China, was recognized as the legitimate government of all of China. President Nixon changed that, and the Republic of China was expelled from the United Nations. Since then the United States has maintained a weak-hand.

China appears to be about to play their stronger hand.

If we don’t do something now in the Reagan and Churchill spirit, from my study and experience not only will Taiwan be taken over by mainland China, but the ripple effects will also be disastrous for the United States and its allies.

For once, I must come strongly to the defense of the language of our President.

According to the French news source France 24, picked up by our domestic press, President Biden speaking at a recent East Asia Summit, “…reiterated that the United States had a ‘rock-solid’ commitment to Taiwan.” He was further quoted as saying that ‘We are deeply concerned by China’s coercive…actions…[they] threaten regional peace and stability.” The article went on to say that “Biden last week said that the United States, which is obligated by a 1979 law to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself, would come to Taiwan’s defense if it was attacked by China.”

It is my understanding that the mutual defense treaty which would have obligated us to come to the rescue of Taiwan was replaced in 1979 with simply a federal statute obligating us to provide Taiwan the means to defend itself — a vast difference in both language and reality.

Despite the Biden administration’s walk back of President Biden’s comments, Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen said she had "faith" the United States would defend the island against a Chinese attack.

Absent action to back up what Biden said — seemingly off the cuff — I really doubt we would seriously commit our forces to help repel an invasion of Taiwan.

Somewhat alike the delicate dance that President Franklin Roosevelt had to go through in late 1941 to prepare the United States for war while the domestic agenda was against his efforts — until the Japanese made the historical mistake of a surprise attack at 8 a.m. on Sunday December 7, 1941 at Pearl Harbor — we are in a somewhat similar moment. I have written about such a moment before, referring to the nearly twin books about that pre-World War II moment, by John Kennedy and Winston Churchill, essentially entitled, “While England Slept.” While I hope we don’t need to militarily fight China, we must be prepared to do so, and Taiwan would be the first battlefield if we don’t do something to deter their aggression. Let’s not leave Taiwan’s president to only have “faith” that we will defend her.

Fortunately, there appears to be a strategic framework for such a defense, if leadership has courage, and that strategy can be implemented in time.

While I sometimes have my doubts about Brookings analyses from my attendance at their seminars in the past, its position paper, “How should Taiwan, Japan and the United States cooperate better on the defense of Taiwan?” (October 27, 2021), properly focuses on the more geographically concerned Japan than the post-Afghanistan more-remote-thinking United States. Brookings notes that “In a recent public opinion poll in Japan, 80% of respondents answered that they felt threatened by China.”

That 80% fear in Japan contrasts with a Gallup poll in February of this year that 45% of Americans see China “as the greatest enemy of the U.S.” However that Gallup poll also notes that the 45% figure is double what it was in 2020, so the trend line of fear of China in the United States is increasing.

That Brookings analysis points to strong support in Japan for defending Taiwan. Thus, a commitment (at least trilateral in nature) seems possibly forthcoming. Having been at some of the joint bases in Japan, I do sense our mutual commitment to regional defense. Perhaps a Japanese-U.S. adjunct base in Taiwan is an option. Or, as suggested in an article in “The Hill” on Oct. 31, utilize the Coast Guard.

Mr. Biden, your words were encouraging. Don’t back down. Strategize — quickly.

Contact Larry Little at larrylittle46@gmail.com.

This article originally appeared on Kitsap Sun: Larry Little: Strategy, not just faith, is needed to protect Taiwan