President Joe Biden running for 2nd term: What Michigan means to his reelection plans

President Joe Biden made it official on Tuesday via video: He's running for a second term and you can bet holding onto Michigan is a big part of his plans for winning reelection in '24.

Fact is, it's hard to see how he succeeds without fending off a Republican challenge in the Great Lakes state. Fortunately for him, he's got a pretty good record in Michigan, having walloped Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont in the 2020 Democratic primary and then defeating then-President Donald Trump by three percentage points — or 154,188 votes to be exact.

Wait, aren't you getting ahead of yourself? He's not even the nominee

True, but you'd have to go back to Lyndon Baines Johnson in the 1968 election to find a sitting, eligible president (who wasn't term-limited) who wasn't his party's nominee for reelection — and Johnson took himself out of the running. So, barring a health issue, Biden's almost certain to be the Democratic nominee.

More: The worst-kept secret in Washington is out: Joe Biden announces 2024 reelection campaign

Isn't a health issue a viable concern?

At age 80, Biden is already the oldest president in U.S. history but the White House physician says he's up to the job. Of course, he's at an age when health concerns can and often do arise suddenly. That said, Trump, who is also in the running, is no spring chicken at age 76.

OK, why is Michigan so important?

Think back to 2016: Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, beat Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by clinching three states in the industrial Midwest — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — by less than 80,000 votes in all, fewer people than it takes to fill the Big House in Ann Arbor. Those Electoral College votes in three states that hadn't backed a Republican in the same election since Ronald Reagan in 1984 (when he won every state but one) put Trump over the top.

In 2020, Biden put all three back in the Democratic column as well as scoring razor-thin victories in Arizona and Georgia. But if those two traditionally Republican states moved back to a Republican nominee in '24, all else being equal, any of those other three could, if they flipped, put the GOP back into the White House.

What does Biden have in Michigan that others don't?

That may come down to who the Republicans select as their nominee. But if it's Trump, who is running and remains ahead of most polls, there are solid reasons to believe at this early date that Biden has the edge, even if it's a slight one.

The fact is that, since Trump won that narrow margin in 2016, he and his chosen candidates have consistently underperformed. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (who is a national co-chair of Biden's reelection campaign) won an easy reelection last year after riding anti-Trump sentiment to a victory four years before and Democrats took control of the state Legislature for the first time in decades. Biden and his party have also been able to make the most out of widespread abortion rights support in the state in the wake of the Supreme Court's decision last summer allowing states to decide whether and to whom the procedure is available.

Finally, Biden has been able to present himself as a union guy, a car guy, an elected official who is comfortable on the factory floor. Is it possible to see someone blunt those advantages in a statewide general election race? Sure. But it's harder seeing Trump do so, seeing the thumping the Democrats have given him and his allies in recent elections as they have continued to press baseless claims of election fraud in Michigan and elsewhere. And, at this moment, it doesn't appear that the other potential or announced GOP candidates — namely Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley and former Vice President Mike Pence among them — appear ready to break through. But it's early.

It's also of note that, unlike in 2020, the state Republican Party is almost unrecognizable from its earlier self, with donors bolting and Kristina Karamo, an election denier who last year lost badly in a race to unseat Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, now chairing the party. The Democrats? They've actually moved, with Biden's blessing, to make Michigan one of the first five states to have a nominating primary, on Feb. 27, after South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire and Georgia.

So is Biden a shoo-in in Michigan?

He is not. Biden's job approval numbers remain low and inflation remains a concern nationally and in the state. There are also those, including some in his own party, who are concerned about his age and acumen, and that he hasn't delivered on all the promises he made. But there is no one on the political stage at this moment who appears likely to beat him.

Are we likely to see a lot of him?

Oh yes. He has already been here seven times as president, though not yet this year. You can expect him and others, especially among the Republican field, to make themselves known.

Contact Todd Spangler: tspangler@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter@tsspangler.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: President Joe Biden to run for reelection: Michigan's role in plans