A presidential prelude playbook: Why DeSantis is driving Florida hard right
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TALLAHASSEE — With the Legislature approving one of the strictest abortion laws in the nation, more gun access, and racing ahead with measures targeting LGBTQ residents, many Floridians are dumbstruck by the dizzying swerve into culture conservatism that is powering this spring’s session.
More is coming.
Tough sanctions against undocumented migrants, new limits on socially conscious programs at state universities and another swipe at Walt Disney Co., the state’s largest private employer, for challenging Gov. Ron DeSantis over a controversial parental rights law are poised to sail through the Legislature’s closing days.
Some wonder what is happening in Florida, where a politically purple heritage is suddenly submerged by a gargantuan red wave.
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“Republican legislators are so focused on these culture issues, but there are so many other things they could spend their time on instead of banning all these things,” said Jeff Agron, 61, of Pinecrest, who came to the Capitol to oppose the six-week abortion law recently signed by Gov. Ron DeSantis.
“I think they are just so out of touch,” said Agron, social justice director at Miami Beach’s Temple Beth Sholom.
Polls show many Floridians agree with Agron on the session’s driving issues, with analysts pointing to the roots of Florida’s sharp right turn as stemming from last November’s elections, legislative redistricting, a shifting population and, most of all, DeSantis' presidential aspirations.
“The governor is kind of laying out the agenda. And the Legislature is backing him up,” said Christian Ziegler, chair of the Florida Republican Party.
But Ziegler disputed talk that DeSantis and lawmakers are out of step with Floridians.
“The governor made it very clear that he is going to push a staunch conservative agenda, and frankly he campaigned that way,” Zieger said. “The voters came out and overwhelmingly supported him.
“I think he does have a mandate. And I think the Republican Party does have a mandate,” he concluded.
Elections do matter
DeSantis was re-elected by a 19% margin over Democratic rival Charlie Crist in a contest that saw only 49% of Florida Democrats cast ballots, compared with 64% of Republicans, a USA Today Network-Florida analysis showed.
DeSantis’ victory – the largest margin in a Florida governor’s race in 40 years – trickled down to other races and helped Republicans gain supermajority control of the state House and Senate.
The once-a-decade redrawing of state House, Senate and congressional boundaries last year resulted in 40 of the state’s 160 lawmakers facing no opposition.
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Many districts became hyper-partisan, with 60%, 70% or even 80% of voters from one party, with Republicans vastly outnumbering Democrats in most.
All told, in the 40-member Senate, only four districts were considered potential partisan toss-ups last year, with a history of contests decided by margins of 5% or less.
In the 120-member House, only 14 districts fell within that margin, according to research by USA Today Network-Florida.
“Having a safe district certainly plays into the policies we’re seeing in the Legislature,” said Michael Binder, a University of North Florida political scientist and director of the school’s polling center.
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Republicans now surpass registered Democrats in the state by almost 455,000 voters, having taken the lead two years ago for the first time in modern Florida history. Like many states, a geographic sorting is confining more Democrats to urban areas and Republicans to sprawling suburban and rural communities.
Welcome mat for new, red Floridians
Heading into last fall’s elections, 393,000 voters from other states had moved to Florida since early in the COVID-19 pandemic, 46% of them registering as Republicans, 23% as Democrats and 29% with no party affiliation, according to L2 Data, which tracks voter and consumer data.
These pandemic-era arrivals represented 3% of Florida voters, a big increase that overwhelmingly favored Republicans.
“We’re clearly a red state,” Ziegler said. “Florida is very conservative, despite a few pockets of blue.”
That is fueling what’s happening in Tallahassee. But polls show huge swaths of Floridians don’t agree with the direction DeSantis and the Legislature are pulling the state.
“As a candidate, legislators now aren’t necessarily worried about the November election, but maybe the August primary. It results in policies that don’t really consider the middle-of-the-road, non-partisan voter,” said Binder of UNF.
Most of all, DeSantis’ presidential hopes are dictating the legislative agenda, he added. The governor is expected to announce his candidacy soon after the Legislature’s scheduled May 5 finish.
DeSantis checking conservative boxes
“He needs to check a lot of those social issue boxes,” Binder said. “You need to check the abortion box, you need to check the guns box, those are things that in a Republican primary and you’re standing next to eight or 10 people on a debate stage, they’ve done it and you better have done it, too.”
A UNF survey conducted just before the session began last month showed 62% of Floridians opposed banning most abortions after six weeks of pregnancy when asked, unlike the law just signed by DeSantis, if there were no exceptions for rape or incest.
Permitless gun carry, signed by DeSantis, was opposed by 77% of those polled. Limits on diversity, equity and inclusion programs at universities – expected soon to clear the Legislature – also were opposed by a majority of Floridians.
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Disney, which remains a target of DeSantis and Republican lawmakers going back to its opposition to last year’s parental rights legislation, dubbed “Don’t Say Gay,” by opponents, is still viewed favorably by most Floridians, UNF found.
The measure barred discussion of sexual orientation or gender identity in early school grades. The state Board of Education on Wednesday extended the prohibition through 12th grade.
Some moves by the Legislature, though, are more popular, including making private school vouchers available to all Floridians, the survey showed. DeSantis last month signed one of the nation’s largest voucher expansions.
And while the governor almost equally divides Floridians when it comes to whether they have a favorable opinion of him, UNF had found DeSantis the choice of most registered Republicans in the state for the party’s presidential nomination, topping former President Donald Trump.
DeSantis has struggled lately, with Trump scooping up endorsements from 10 Republican members of Congress from Florida, fully half of the state's GOP delegation.
Signs of disconnect, Democrats say
But Democrats say the disconnect between the Legislature and many Floridians is clear when talking to voters about the difficulties of finding affordable property insurance, the sharp divide in schools over books and social issues, the state’s soaring shortage of teachers, and the high costs of housing.
Legislation limiting abortion and banning gender-affirming care for minors brought scores of protesters to the Capitol and emotional testimony from opponents in committees hearing the proposals.
Florida Democratic Chair Nikki Fried was among roughly a dozen people arrested outside the Capitol while protesting the six-week abortion law, set to take effect if a challenge to last year’s 15-week restriction is struck down by the state Supreme Court.
There have been few attempts by Florida’s Republican rulers to build bridges to those speaking out against legislation.
Instead, Republican leaders seem to be doubling down, with measures advancing that further limit the regulatory authority of local governments – which critics see as a strike at Florida’s more liberal-leaning cities.
“We have an environment where compromise is unnecessary, thanks to redistricting, and it’s one-party rule,” said Rep. Anna Eskamani, D-Orlando. “It’s even worse than that, because it’s one-man rule. The governor wants to show to the Republican base that he can get it done."
She added, “He’s leveraged everything to feed into his agenda and the rest of us are stuck on this terrible ride, even as we have real problems in this state to address.”
But some who support where DeSantis and fellow Republicans are leading the state say voters just may not be there yet. But they will eventually come around to endorse these goals, they say.
“Part of leadership is making the argument to do what you think is right and get people to follow you,” said John Stemberger, president of the Florida Family Policy Council, which championed the six-week abortion law.
“There’s a natural tension that exists between the masses who feel one way and a leader who says, ‘No, this is the way we should go,’” he added.
Stemberger, who led a 2008 Florida constitutional amendment that banned same-sex marriage, later overturned by the 2015 U.S. Supreme Court decision legalizing such unions, said DeSantis and the Legislature are merely trying to bring the state back toward the political center.
“Again, the people have spoken,” Stemberger said. “We’re not going to put up with issues that we see as way out of the mainstream.”
John Kennedy is a reporter in the USA TODAY Network’s Florida Capital Bureau. He can be reached at jkennedy2@gannett.com, or on Twitter at @JKennedyReport
This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: DeSantis drives Florida hard right in prelude to presidential run