Should there be pressure on Brian Flores to have Dolphins be serious contenders this season? | Countdown to camp

With the 2021 NFL season fast approaching, the South Florida Sun Sentinel takes a look at 10 storylines to watch for in a 10-part series ahead of the Miami Dolphins’ first day of training camp, which is set for Tuesday.

Overall, the Miami Dolphins were viewed as a pleasant surprise in 2020.

In the second season of a rebuild, they reached 10 wins for the first time since 2016. It was an unexpected turnaround after it didn’t appear to be the team’s trajectory during an 0-2 and 1-3 start, meaning the Dolphins went 9-3 over their final 12 games.

Even the five-win 2019 season in Brian Flores’ first as head coach would be judged as a success by most, considering the level of talent on the roster to start that campaign and the losses by scores of 59-10, 43-0, 31-6 and 30-10 against the Ravens, Patriots, Cowboys and Chargers, respectively, to start that year.

But even as the win total doubled in Flores’ second year at the helm, is that it for considering non-playoff seasons any kind of success under this regime?

The natural next step is to make the playoffs. Going 10-6 would normally be good enough, especially with seven teams getting in, but 2020 was an odd season — no only due to the pandemic — with seven AFC teams finishing 11-5. Now, the usual benchmarks will get shifted once again with the institution of a 17-game regular season.

Regardless, the Dolphins must be one of the top seven teams in the 16-team conference to consider 2021 forward progress.

As Miami had a chance to clinch a playoff berth in Week 17 last year before the 56-26 mauling at the Bills crushed those hopes, they had some built-in excuses.

Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was a rookie thrown in behind a young offensive line with a thin wide receiving corps that was depleted by the end of the season. Former offensive coordinator Chan Gailey’s play-calls didn’t allow him to take many chances, and the hip injury that cut Tagovailoa’s college career at Alabama short was still somewhat fresh in his memory.

Now, he has playmakers, the line should be a bit more developed and a change to co-offensive coordinators George Godsey and Eric Studesville was made. On the other hand, Tagovailoa no longer has savvy vet Ryan Fitzpatrick there to offer him guidance — or even enter a game in relief, like he did twice in 2020 — but sixth-year pro and former Dwyer High standout Jacoby Brissett is now in Miami to back him up.

A big reason why last year’s team exceeded expectations was how the defense produced a league-leading 29 takeaways, with star cornerback Xavien Howard’s 10 interceptions leading the way. It’s a mark that will be difficult to replicate, and Howard enters this season disgruntled as the cornerback opposite of him, Byron Jones, makes more money than him.

Through his two seasons in Miami, Flores has proven he can get the most out of his players, but now he’ll be faced with the new challenge of doing it with a roster that no longer has a low floor.

So, what are realistic expectations? Merely make the playoffs, but go out in the first round? Do the Dolphins need to advance in the playoffs and break their drought without a playoff win since 2000?

Here’s why it’s difficult, although not impossible, to imagine a scenario where the Dolphins can reach the divisional round: In order to have home-field advantage in the wild-card round, a team must be a division winner. In the AFC East, the defending division champion Bills are most certainly ahead of the Dolphins at this point in time, so barring an unexpected development this season, advancing would require a road playoff win, likely in a cold January environment.

The warm-weather Dolphins, especially amid a 2021 regular-season schedule where they won’t see many frigid environments, will have a daunting task ahead of them having to win at Kansas City, Buffalo, Baltimore, Cleveland or even Pittsburgh if it came down to it. If Miami was in a scenario where it faced the AFC South winner — either the Titans or Colts — that might give the team a better chance, but given the strength of the other three divisions, that might require the top wild card and No. 5 seed in the playoffs.

The Dolphins should look to get the franchise to a point in coming years where it can get over the Bills in the division to get home playoff games in the future. And that’s not even mentioning that the Patriots are not to be overlooked as they get their 2020 COVID opt-outs back and bolstered their roster in the offseason.

While a deep playoff run would be a welcome sight for fans, if Flores can simply get the Dolphins into the playoffs, that will count as progress in 2021 with greater aspirations in years to come. Something short of reaching the playoffs will be a disappointment.

Previously addressed:

Where will Dolphins’ pass rush come from in 2021?

Suddenly deep Dolphins’ receiving corps makes for interesting competition for roster spots

Will Dolphins’ rookies be able to handle prominent roles, and perform at a high level this season?

Can the Dolphins defense reproduce last year’s league-leading amount of turnovers?

Is Year 3 of rebuild the season Dolphins make the playoffs?

Will Dolphins’ young offensive linemen blossom in their second season?

After not making an offseason splash, do Dolphins have enough at running back?

How will Xavien Howard’s contract dispute impact Dolphins heading into training camp?