As primary day nears, a question: Who are North Carolina’s registered voters?
Candidates in North Carolina’s primary elections next Tuesday often refer to how they will serve their constituents and protect their interests.
But who will decide if primary candidates will make it to general election ballots in November? What do we know about the 7.5 million people registered to vote in this state?
More are leaving traditional parties
North Carolina voters have increasingly switched from Democratic or Republican party membership to become unaffiliated voters, who can vote in the Democratic or the Republican primary on March 5.
That group now represents 37% of registered voters. In 2002, half of this state’s voters were registered as Democrats. The latest state data logs Democrats at 32.4% and Republicans at 30%.
Further analysis of State Elections Board data reveals more:
Because about 9% of the voters’ race and 27% of voters’ ethnicity is indicated as “undesignated” in state elections board data, a complete analysis is impossible. But the most recently available data by race shows 65% of voters identify as white, 20% as black and 2% as Asian. Voters who describe themselves as Hispanic represent 4% of voters. That aligns mostly with all 18 years and older North Carolina residents: white non-Hispanic, 67%; Black non-Hispanic, 21%; and Hispanic, 5.5%, according to the latest Census Bureau American Community Survey estimates.
Among the 80% of voters whose birthplace is recorded in state data, almost half, 48%, were born in North Carolina, now the ninth most populous state in the country. New York claims the largest number of voters from out of state, totaling about 405,000, or 7% of the state’s registered voters where the birth state is recorded.
Voters born outside of North Carolina are about evenly split by party affiliation, with Democrats leading with 35%, followed by Republicans with 33% and unaffiliated voters with 32%. That compares with North Carolina natives: 40% are registered as unaffiliated, 30% as Democrats and 29% as Republicans.
The median age of these voters is 50 years old. Unaffiliated voters are the youngest with a median age of 43. With Democrats it is 52; for Republicans it’s a bit older at 55.
How many people are likely to vote on March 5?
Whether native or non-native, young or old, Democrat or Republican, don’t expect many voters to show up next week at the polls or to have voted early. In presidential primary elections since 1988, the highest turnout rate was 36.9% in the 2008 primary. Barack Obama was the Democratic winner; John McCain won the GOP balloting.
The second highest turnout was 35.7% in the 2016 primary, with Donald Trump the Republican and Hillary Clinton the Democratic winners.
Joe Biden is unopposed on the Democratic presidential primary ballot this year. Former president Donald Trump and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley are the highest-profile Republican presidential primary candidates.
Many more primary candidates are running too — for spots on November’s general election ballot for many statewide offices, including governor, and for legislative and local government seats.
This year, 5.2% of registered voters had cast early voting or absentee ballots as of Feb. 28. The rate in 2020 for the same time period was only slightly higher at 5.6%.
Not registered but want to vote?
If you haven’t registered to vote, there is time. The “regular” deadline to register to vote is 25 days before Election Day. But North Carolina residents can sign up during the early voting period, which ends at 3 p.m. Saturday, March 2, at early polling sites. Election day registration is not allowed.
State-approved forms of identification are required. Details are available at ncvoter.org/register-to-vote/.
NC Reality Check is an N&O series holding those in power accountable and shining a light on public issues that affect the Triangle or North Carolina. Have a suggestion for a future story? Email realitycheck@newsobserver.com
