Primary fallout: Trump candidates did well in August; how will they fare in November?

WASHINGTON – Donald Trump-style Republicans had a good month of primaries in August – and that could be bad news for the Republican Party when general elections roll around in November.

A string of volatile and inexperienced Trumpers won GOP nominations for the U.S. Senate, governors' jobs, and other statewide offices, but face challenging races this fall – particularly a group of elections that will decide control of the Senate.

"There are so many problematic Republicans," said Jessica Taylor, the Senate and Governors editor of the non-partisan Cook Political Report,.

While Republicans were once favored to flip the evenly divided chamber Democrats now control, Taylor said "I think it's a toss-up now when it comes to Senate control."

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Trump's shadow seemed to grow during the August primaries, punctuating issues that will help decide control of the Senate and other races in the fall election. Among them: Abortion, new legal troubles for the ex-president, and primary wins by an array of "election deniers" who follow Trump's lead in making false claims about his 2020 election loss to President Joe Biden.

Biden's performance in office played a role in the August races as well, and will continue to do so in the fall.

The past few weeks also brought a rise in alarm among Republicans about their chances to win the Senate.

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"I think there's probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate," said Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., the GOP leader in the chamber, speaking to reporters in Kentucky recently. "Senate races are just different, they're statewide, candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome."

Trump attacked McConnell, as he often does, for disparagement of Republican candidates. In a recent Truth Social post, Trump said that "he should spend more time (and money!) helping them get elected."

Among the primary highlights of August:

The Senate - and Trump

Arizona Republicans in a Senate primary nominated Blake Masters, a venture capitalist and outspoken election denier making his first political race. He faces incumbent U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., and starts from behind.

A recent Fox News poll showed Masters trailing Kelly by 8 percentage points.

Arizona is a pivotal and potentially decisive in the battle control of the Senate. The chamber is currently divided 50-50 between the parties, with Democrats in control because Vice President Kamala Harris holds a tie-breaking vote.

Trump candidates making their first political races have made a string of mistakes and gaffes and are struggling in other swing states: Herschel Walker in Georgia, Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, and J.D. Vance in Ohio.

Incumbent GOP Sen. Ron Johnson, who won re-nomination in Wisconsin this month, faces a tough fall election against the Democratic nominee, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes.

The Trump factor is less an issue in other battleground states.

In an August GOP primary in Missouri, Attorney General Eric Schmitt defeated the Trumpier candidate, ex-governor Eric Greitens, and is favored in the fall race. Trump covered his bets in that primary, endorsing "Eric" for the primary, but not specifying which one.

Still, the heavy number of Trump candidates have altered predictions about the fall Senate race. FiveThirtyEight, a poll number-crunching website, gives Democrats a 64 out of 100 chance of increasing their majority in the Senate after November.

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The Trump Revenge Tour: Cheney, Meijer

August saw Trump end the election careers of two House Republicans who had voted to impeach him over the insurrection of Jan. 6, 2021 – races with ramifications through November and beyond.

Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., the most prominent Republican impeacher, lost her primary to Trump-backed challenger Harriet Hageman.

Cheney responded by saying she is thinking about mounting an anti-Trump presidential campaign, either in the Republican primaries or as an independent.

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Trump's other revenge play came in Michigan, as endorsed candidate John Gibbs defeated another GOP impeacher, first-term Rep. Peter Meijer.

Gibbs had help from from the Democrats. They ran an ad designed to appeal to GOP voters, casting Gibbs as the most conservative candidate and the most Trump-like. Democrats like the idea of running against as many Trump candidates as possible.

Gibbs figures to face a competitive race against Democratic nominee Hillary Scholten in the western Michigan district.

That said, Republicans remain favored to win control of the House nationally. The FiveThirtyEight website gives the GOP a 78% chance of claiming a majority after the fall races.

More Trump: The search of Mar-a-Lago

Perhaps the biggest political news of August didn't happen in a primary – it was Trump's sudden announcement on the evening of Aug. 8 that the FBI had searched his Mar-a-Lago home in Palm Beach, Fla.

Attorney General Merrick Garland authorized the search as part of an investigation into the handling of classified intelligence – one of several investigations dogging the former president as Republicans head into fall elections.

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On Friday, the Justice Department released a redacted version of the affidavit justifying the search which said Trump kept 184 classified documents – including some labeled as "Top Secret" – at his Florida home.

Democrats already are blaring investigations in Washington, D.C., and Atlanta into Trump's role in the Jan. 6 insurrection and his efforts to overturn his election loss to Biden. The special congressional committee investigating Jan. 6 is expected to hold more hearings in September.

Trump accused the FBI and the Biden Justice Department of trying to sabotage his political career – and sought to leverage the FBI search into campaign fundraising.

Election deniers

Republicans who believe Trump's lies about the election also had a good August, winning nominations to statewide offices that can have a say in how future elections are conducted.

The list includes Arizona gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake, as well as secretary of state candidates in presidential swing states like Arizona and Michigan.

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The August winners join previously successful election deniers who won Republican nominations to big jobs, such as Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano.

Political reform organizations have spotlighted Republican efforts to place members in state offices that control voting rules, contending they'd be in position to alter future elections.

Candidates like Lake – who at one point accused Arizona Republicans of trying to "steal" the primary from here – said they want election integrity.

Governors with a future

The August primaries also saw the re-nominations of incumbent governors who are already being talked up for national office.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a favorite for re-election, scores well in early polling for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, even in match-ups against Trump. First, however, DeSantis faces a fall re-election race with U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist, D-Fla., a former governor back when he was a Republican.

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, who is often mentioned as a future presidential candidate, also won re-nomination in August as well. She is favored to win the general election of Trump-backed Republican Tudor Dixon, a first-time candidate.

The abortion issue

A special kind of August primary underscored the potential power of an issue generated largely by Trump's three appointees to the Supreme Court: Abortion.

Voters in Kansas overwhelmingly rejected a proposed amendment to the state constitution that would have enabled the legislature to massively restrict or even ban abortions.

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It was an impressive showing for abortions rights advocates who say their numbers, donations, and intensity have grown since the Supreme Court's decision in June to strike down the Roe vs. Wade decision that had made an abortion a constitutional right.

The Biden factor

When people talk about "midterm elections," they are referring to the middle of a president's term. All U.S. House seats and one-third of the Senate are up for election every two years.

Many midterm elections often are referendums on the presidents in power, and  historically have gone poorly for the president's party – Democrats in this case.

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Biden went on a political roll in August, bolstered by better economic numbers, a drone strike that killed al Qeada leader Ayman al-Zawahri, and a major congressional package of climate, health and tax initiatives that had long been stalled.

The president's approval ratings are rising, but many polls still have him around the 41% range.

Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center in Washington, D.C., wrote that data from recent mid-term elections "strongly suggest that the fate of this year’s Democratic Senate nominees, like those in years past, is tied to the president’s job approval."

In a column for The Washington Post, Olsen wrote: "Our elections are increasingly partisan, with voters first choosing which party they back and then voting for its candidates up and down the ticket."

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Primary fallout: Trump candidates won in August; how about November?