Primary turnout reached near record lows in Illinois two years ago. Will 2024 improve?

We're just days away from Illinois voters heading to the polls for the primary election. If past indications hold true, many will be staying at home.

Primaries effectively determine who will advance to the November election and, with many uncontested races, some voters decide it's not worth showing up. The last primary election in 2022 saw only a 21.7% turnout rate — the second lowest in the past 40 years according to the Illinois State Board of Elections.

What can we expect for this year?

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The Presidential Bump

Primary turnout over the past 40 years has typically seen less than 30% of registered voters cast their ballots. More voters typically do show out during presidential years like these.

In 2008, President Barack Obama's first campaign saw turnout top 40% in Illinois. Who he defeated in that primary, Chicago native Hillary Clinton, similarly enjoyed higher than average turnout with 46.8% voting in 2016.

The last presidential election in 2020 was held in June, months later than a typical primary, and saw voter turnout less than 27%. President Joe Biden went on to carry the state in the general election that year when a 72% turnout rate set a near 30-year record.

Biden dispatched former President Donald Trump in 2020. Four years later, polls indicate many are not thrilled at the prospect of a likely rematch which could bring lower turnout.

Earlier primaries in other states have seen the Republican field dwindle, already seeing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Vice President Mike Pence drop-out.

Biden, author Marianne Williamson, Minnesota congressman Dean Phillips, and Frankie Lozada will be on the Democrat ballot in Illinois. Williamson dropped out earlier this month and none of the other candidates have drawn traction in other primaries.

Ballot challenges were filed against both parties' respective frontrunners earlier this year, but their names were ultimately kept on the ballot.

More: Question about where to vote for the Illinois primary election? We have you covered

Uncontested races

The presidential race is joined by seats in the Illinois General Assembly and Illinois Supreme Court, congressional districts, and other local races this year.

The wide majority of the state legislature races are uncontested, candidates on the ballot essentially a shoe-in to advance to the general election. Of the 118 seats up for grabs in the Illinois House of Representatives, only 25 of them are being contested whereas six of the 23 state Senate spots up for election this year are contested.

For the state's 17 congressional seats, the majority are contested. Perhaps the race of the primary, former gubernatorial candidate Darren Bailey is attempting to unseat U.S. Rep. Mike Bost, R-Murphysboro, in the 12th Congressional District Primary.

Bost recently secured Trump's endorsement, which is expected to pay major dividends for the incumbent in the deep-red southern Illinois district.

When is election day?

The primary election is on Tuesday, March 19.

Contact Patrick M. Keck: 312-549-9340, pkeck@gannett.com, twitter.com/@pkeckreporter.

This article originally appeared on State Journal-Register: Low turnout primaries common in Illinois, data suggests