Pro Breakdown: How will the Dota 2 metagame look like in TI11's Main Event?

This is Pro Breakdown, a series by Yahoo Esports Southeast Asia where we talk with pro players, coaches, experts, and other personalities about anything and everything in the region's esports scene.

The International 2022 (TI11) Main Event is almost upon us. Throughout the Last Chance Qualifier and the Group Stage, the tournament's metagame has been figured out by the competing teams and pushed to its limits in their bid to claim the Aegis of Champions.

We sat down with Singaporean Dota 2 veteran and coach Nicholas "xFreedom" Kelvin Ileto Lim (@xfreedom on Twitter) to break down how the TI11 metagame will look like in the Main Event.

The three most popular heroes during the Group Stage were Marci (76 picks), Shadow Fiend (71 picks), and Undying (63 picks). Why were these three heroes in particular so sought after by the teams?

xFreedom: I think the similarities that the three of them have are that they either provide a strong laning phase or give some form of buffs and teamfight ability. They pretty much check all the boxes of what you're looking for in the current meta in just one hero.

Can you expand on what makes these three heroes so good?

xFreedom: Undying is a block pick for a lot of strength offlaners and you secure the laning phase regardless of who you fight. The only bad matchup that's not favourable for Undying (and whoever his laning partner is) is Enigma, and Enigma has also been highly-contested. Undying also gives a lot of strong teamfight presence because of Tombstone.

For Marci, it's just her ability to reposition, initiate, front line, and buff her carry. She can also manfight (fight one on one) a lot of carry heroes with just a Black King Bar.

As for Shadow Fiend, think of him as a stronger version of Medusa. He gives tower damage, is stronger in the lane, doesn't lack in damage, and has a big teamfight ability with Requiem of Souls.

Shadow Fiend is also able to front line for his team, unlike the other popular ranged carries right now like Drow Ranger and Sniper. They have to be very wary of their position, whereas for Shadow Fiend, he can just stand his ground and fight.

I also think the rise of Drow Ranger, Sniper, and Morphling is because of the popularity of Shadow Fiend. He doesn't want to fight heroes that can outrange him. He generally kills melee carries because he can just stand his ground and manfight them.

Another popular hero during the Group Stage was Primal Beast, he was picked in 59 games and banned in 95. Before TI11, we often saw Primal Beast played in the offlane, but during the Group Stage many teams have shifted him to the mid lane. Why is that?

xFreedom: People have figured out that Primal Beast is flexible, he can be your offlaner or mid. For your mid laner, generally you want him to just go Black King Bar for his first item and it fits Primal Beast.

Think of Primal Beast as if he is a lot of heroes combined into one, since he fulfils a lot of roles. He can be the front liner and initiator since he's very disruptive like Pangolier with all his area-of-effect stuns and slows.

With Primal Beast's popularity, some have begun saying he's overpowered. Do you agree? Why?

xFreedom: I think his toolkit is overpowered. You name every single mechanic in the game, he pretty much has them all except for Fear. He has Slow, Stun, Break, and high Burst. What hero has all this mechanics just by itself?

Speaking of tanky heroes with stuns and slows, Pudge has also risen in popularity as a carry hero. Why has his stock been rising?

xFreedom: Pudge has been very popular because he stops a lot of the 'Zoo' heroes like Chen and Lycan.

He scales decently into the late game and he's strong from the laning phase until the mid game. That's why you see a lot of mid carries drafted alongside him now, because he takes care of the early game.

Was there a hero pick during the Group Stage that surprised you? Why?

xFreedom: Position 5 Sven. People started realising what they could do with the hero: he's a frontliner, he stuns, and he gives you armor buffs, there are not that many heroes that can buff their team's armor.

Sven has a strong laning phase as well. The criteria for a pos 5 hero is you just have to secure your carry's lane, at least make it a 50/50 or better. Anything better than an even lane is a bonus.

Plus his Aghanim's Shard upgrade, you pop Warcry and you give your team armor and movement speed. It's like a free Drums of Endurance and an even better Assault Cuirass aura.

What about a hero that you were surprised didn't get picked as much as you expected?

xFreedom: Elder Titan not being popular has been quite surprising, in a lot of TI's he has made a comeback in the meta because of the strong laning phase, teamfight, and Roshan control he provides.

If you look at how teams pick their pos 5 these days, they often pick them early in the draft. And the way to counter Elder Titan is to pick dispels, like Enchantress who is the classic counter to him. Or you just pick a double nuker lane so he can't just walk in and hit you.

I'd say Elder Titan is very situational, because nowadays he's unlike other pos 5 heroes that you can just blink pick in the first phase, namely Crystal Maiden, Marci, or Undying who all don't really care about the lane matchup.

Speaking of surprises, it's also been surprising to see Io only get picked once during the Group Stage. Io has always been seen as one of the 'TI heroes' so why has no one been picking it this time?

xFreedom: In all the high-stakes games in every TI, it's all about teamfight. Io doesn't give you any teamfight, it just gives you sustain and buffs.

Plus, there's already a hero that can do that better, which is Marci.

She is like the better version of Io, so I think that's why Io has been phased out. Io is also very dependent on its partner.

There are not that many heroes that can carry Io, whereas whoever you pick with Marci will always be strong.

From what you've seen during the Group Stage, do you think the teams have the TI11 meta figured out?

xFreedom: I'll say that people already know which team is good at playing what and they're gonna try to ban them out or have something prepared for it.

They can also try to abuse the fact that a team is playing a certain hero, for example if they play a lot of Naga Siren they can counter that with Leshrac.

Will there be differences in the meta between the teams in the upper bracket and lower bracket? For example, will teams in the best-of-one elimination matches play safer than usual?

xFreedom: I think the best-of-ones are very different compared to the best-of-threes.

I think it's very easy to play the game if you've already checked the boxes for what makes you win in this meta, so in that case you don't have to go back to the drawing board and say "Oh, we were missing this and miss that" and you just want to play the heroes that are easy to execute.

Is there a certain hero that you expect will pop up and surprise everybody during the Main Event?

xFreedom: Meepo. This patch is all about the mid carries, you see a lot of flexible carries being put on the mid lane instead of the safe lane.

Teams like these fast-paced carries that they can put on the mid lane and they'll come online very quickly.

I think, with the buffs that Meepo has been getting, this hero is very viable in the right lineup. Some of the meta heroes in the patch are also very vulnerable to Meepo.

With that said, not every team can play him. Only specific teams can play Meepo and I do see some of the teams that have a Meepo player have been practicing with him, and it's not just one or two teams. I do believe they have caught on it, Meepo is very playable given the right situation.

From what you've seen during the Group Stage and how the Main Event bracket has been set up, who do you think are the strongest teams and which one has the best chance of claiming the Aegis?

xFreedom: I think Evil Geniuses, PSG.LGD, and either Tundra Esports or Team Liquid, these teams are my Top 4. But as for who will win, I foresee probably PSG.LGD or Liquid.

Which team do you think has shown the best understanding of the metagame?

xFreedom: I'd say Tundra Esports have been very prepared for the meta heroes and have come up with their own solutions.

For the rest of the teams, I think they have just been playing what suits them, what they're comfortable with.

The teams that did well have generally not played what everyone else has been playing, they just play their own games.

There doesn't seem to be any overwhelming favourites to win the Aegis this year compared to past TI's. Why is that? Do you think it has something to do with the metagame?

xFreedom: I would say it's because of the state of the game. You can really feel like it's anyone's game now. Even if you are playing your pub games, you don't feel like you can be confident to win if you have a lead anymore.

Even if a team is up 30,000 gold, you don't feel like you're sure to win the game, instead, you feel like there's still that chance you can lose. That's the reason why the competition has been so close.

I think the major reason behind all of this was the XP change from the 7.32 update. Heroes are lower level and respawn faster, so you always feel like there's a fighting chance.

As long as you have strong teamfight, you can always go and fight. That's why you can see teams either win really fast or the game gets dragged really long.

TI11 will be hosted in Singapore from 15 to 30 October and features a revamped format and a longer schedule.

The tournament will begin with a Group Stage from 15 to 18 October, where 20 teams will fight to become among the 16 squads to advance to the Main Event.

TI11's Main Event will be a double-elimination bracket and is split into two phases, the first being held from 20 to 23 October while the second will take place from 29 to 30 October.

For everything you need to know about TI11, check here.

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