Will California recall Gavin Newsom during COVID-19 crisis? Democrats seem nervous

Donald Trump’s failed insurrection makes it even more unlikely that California Republicans will successfully recall Gov. Gavin Newsom and replace him with one of their own.

The California GOP has been in decline for years. Its descent into pro-Trump fascism ensures it a path to permanent irrelevance here. If California Democrats continue to make panicky mistakes like they made this week, however, Newsom may be in for a rocky ride.

On Tuesday, California Democrats held a press conference to blast the recall effort. The script for such an event should have been simple: Highlight the governor’s hard work and paint Republicans as Trump stooges pushing a losing cause. But a poor choice of words turned the routine event into a mini-disaster. The Democrats’ decision to describe the recall effort as a “coup” — one week after an actual attempted coup in the United States Capitol — totally backfired.

“This recall effort, which really ought to be called the California coup, is being led by right-wing conspiracy theorists, white nationalists, anti-vaxxers in groups who encourage violence on our democratic institutions,” said Rusty Hicks, chairman of the California Democratic Party.

The party also framed the recall as a coup in its press release. Critics on both sides of the political aisle pounced, pointing out that a recall is a legal and constitutional mechanism.

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“I’m extremely disappointed and disturbed to see @CA_Dem using this language,” wrote Samantha Corbin, a Democrat, on Twitter. “Especially now, when we are in a real national constitutional crisis with threats of violence here in our own state Capitol.”

“It’s absolutely insane to frame a recall where the voters go to the polls a coup,” tweeted Yashar Ali, a former Newsom advisor.

Depicting the recall as a coup was a mistake for many reasons. Unlike a recall, a coup typically involves the violent and illegal overthrow of a legitimate government. The misuse of the term to describe a constitutional recall process seemed to undermine the seriousness of the actual coup attempt in Washington.

The unforced error also allowed Republicans to reverse the attack and hand Democrats a PR defeat. It inspired an avalanche of negative stories and Capitol Public Radio awarded Hicks a “pants on fire” rating for the claim. Democrats won’t be using that word again to describe the recall.

Words can make or break a campaign. For deeper insight into the lexicological blunder, I called Dr. George Lakoff, a UC Berkeley linguist known for his expertise on the role of metaphors in human cognition.

“It’s not exactly a metaphor, but it sort of is,” said Lakoff, with whom I formerly collaborated on several projects, including a podcast about language and politics. “But it doesn’t ring true. Thinking of a recall as a coup doesn’t work because a recall is a normal electoral mechanism. Coups are not normal electoral mechanisms.”

Lakoff said Democrats picked both the wrong word and the wrong strategy. He questioned the decision to attack Republicans instead of highlighting the governor’s successes. After all, can California Republicans get any more unpopular?

“I would like to see a ‘thank you, Gov. Newsom’ campaign,” said Lakoff, who said Newsom is doing a good job overall. “Give a nice list of the important things he’s done. We haven’t seen anything like a positive campaign of this sort.”

Such a campaign would draw criticism from Republicans and skepticism from the press. Does Newsom even have enough wins to fill a press release? California’s COVID death toll has now surpassed 32,000 and even the state’s COVID-19 vaccine roll-out appears mired in chaos.

Still, a stubbornly positive message might resonate with voters. Polls have consistently shown strong support for Newsom. Mysteriously, 58% of Californians think Newsom is doing a good job on the economy despite the pandemic’s economic devastation.

This frustrates Republican efforts to topple the governor, depriving them of a key argument. And Trump’s Republicans can surely understand why most Democrats may choose to stand by their leader no matter what. Trump has set the bar for leadership so low that anyone who’s not putting children in cages or inciting an armed attack on the U.S. Capitol looks great in comparison.

The recall is a longshot, but Democrats obviously perceive a threat. This week’s shaky overreaction boosted its visibility, but it may not matter in the end.

Can pro-Trump Republicans unseat a popular Democrat in California? If the recall qualifies, can Newsom cobble together enough success stories to run on his record?

Neither seems likely here in Jan. 2021, but we’ll find out soon enough.