New projected win total for Sacramento Kings following release of 2023-24 NBA schedule

Replicating last season’s success will be no easy task for a Kings team that won 48 games to secure the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference playoffs.

The Kings kept every key rotation player and added pieces that could make their record-setting offense even more explosive, but several teams in the West are projected to leapfrog Sacramento following the release of the 2023-24 NBA schedule.

Bleacher Report provided projected win totals for all 30 teams Thursday based on over/under figures at FanDuel Sportsbook. The Kings were predicted to go 45-37 with the over/under set at 44½.

That would represent another strong campaign for an organization that had not finished .500 or reached the playoffs since 2005-06. But based on those projections, the Kings would tie for eighth in the West with the Minnesota Timberwolves. That would put the Kings in the play-in tournament with toss-up odds of reaching the playoffs after having homecourt advantage in a memorable seven-game series against the Golden State Warriors.

The defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets are projected to win the West again with a 52-30 record. The Warriors and Phoenix Suns are expected to go 50-32 followed by the Dallas Mavericks (48-34), Memphis Grizzlies (48-34) and Los Angeles Lakers (48-34). The Clippers are projected to finish seventh at 47-35 with the Kings, Timberwolves and New Orleans Pelicans (42-40) rounding out the play-in race.

The over/unders for some of these teams could fluctuate depending on health. The Warriors, Lakers and Clippers have star-studded but aging teams that have been plagued by injuries.

Kings fans might bristle at these projections, but Bleacher Report’s Andy Bailey offered a sensible breakdown of Sacramento’s position going into the upcoming season.

“Predicting a slight step back for the Sacramento Kings (who went 48-34 in 2022-23) feels weird, but again, the exercise requires 1,230 league-wide wins and 1,230 league-wide losses,” Bailey wrote.

“The West is going to be stacked, and if just one or two teams are better, it’s going to be hard for Sacramento to get any closer to 50 wins. That’s especially true if the Kings aren’t quite as healthy as they were last season. Hence, the 44.5 over/under at FanFuel.

“Still, comfortably exceeding that mark wouldn’t be at all surprising. Sacramento was plus-3.7 points per 100 possessions with De’Aaron Fox, Kevin Huerter, Keegan Murray, Harrison Barnes and Domantas Sabonis on the floor, and each of those first three players are 25 or under. It’s reasonable to expect two or three to improve.

“If a bench that includes Malik Monk, Trey Lyles, Davion Mitchell and reigning EuroLeague MVP Sasha Vezenkov can win its minutes too, this prediction could look silly in the spring.”