Pundits set sights, expectations on Central Valley 2024 election

Apr. 4—Democrats have a distinct, singular message for the Republican majority ahead of the 2024 elections: Don't get too comfortable.

After the proverbial smoke cleared, Republicans last November won a 222-213 lead in the U.S. House, four seats above the necessary 218 to declare a majority.

Anxious to reclaim those seats, strategists with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released on Monday a list of "districts in play" they believe have the potential to flip in their favor.

"The path to the Democratic majority could run through California," the DCCC report read.

Included on the list: the 22nd Congressional District, currently represented by David Valadao, R-Hanford.

"Democrats will be playing aggressively in these competitive districts to give Californians a clear choice in 2024," said Tommy Garcia, a DCCC spokesperson.

In a recently redrawn district, Valadao's November rout of Democratic challenger Rudy Salas was touted as one of the most contested — a 3 percent margin of victory — and expensive races in the country.

Analysts are mixed on what to make of the Democratic loss. There was low voter turnout typical of a midterm race, but Valadao also won despite dismaying GOP support following his 2020 vote to impeach then-President Donald Trump.

"Partisan Democrats underestimate the Central Valley," said Cathy Abernathy, a local GOP commentator. "Hispanics who dominate this district know what they want for their families — food, fuel, good schools and safe neighborhoods."

Valadao is also one of the few California Republicans who won in a district that voted in double-digit favor of President Joe Biden in 2020. He held the post from 2013 to 2019, lost a term to challenger T.J. Cox, but won it back in a 2020 rematch.

"The Central Valley trusts David Valadao to get results," said National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Ben Petersen. "He is 100 percent focused on the valley."

Faith Mabry, a spokesperson for Valadao, said the representative is "focused on assisting in storm recovery efforts" and "lowering the skyrocketing price of energy bills, not an election that's two years away."

"Central Valley families want results, not a never-ending campaign," Mabry said.

Christian Romo of the Kern County Democratic Party said it's normal to talk elections now, as campaigns are expected to start by this summer with primaries less than 10 months away.

"(So) we're actually only a few months away," Romo said.

Candidates have historically announced their intention to run as early as years before. Andrew Yang did so in 2018, two years before the election. Even at this early stage, there are few worse fates for a candidate than being irrelevant.

"With an over 40 percent Democratic majority, and an almost 60 percent Latino population, this district should be represented by a Latino Democrat who understands the daily challenges that average families are going through," Romo said, adding that Salas would be his best pick.

While Salas filed documents in December for a 2024 run, he has not yet announced his candidacy.

Along with Valadao's 22nd District, DCCC said it will pay attention to eight seats across California, including the two other Biden-favored districts, 13 and 27, which are held by GOP incumbents John Duarte, R-Modesto, and Mike Garcia, R-Santa Clarita, respectively.

Garcia said they will start offering support services, like polling data and fundraising, to campaigns in these districts later this year.

A study recently published by University of Virginia's Center for Politics identified 22 seats, including many in California, considered to be up for grabs in next year's election.

"Big blue states California and New York," said Kyle Kondik, who wrote the report. "Where Republicans have made key gains over the past couple of cycles, looms large as Democrats plot a path back to the House majority."