Purdue football schedule breakdown: Path to 10 wins exists but is it realistic?
WEST LAFAYETTE – Don’t say this too loud – Purdue has a pathway to 10 victories.
It doesn’t mean the Boilermakers will reach double-digit wins for the second time in program history. But if coach Jeff Brohm’s team stays healthy, takes care of business and wins its share of coin flip games, reaching the 10-win mark isn’t an impossible task.
And that should be enough to reside at the top of the Big Ten West at the end of the regular season.
Or Purdue could struggle to gain bowl eligibility if injuries mount, turnovers and penalties pile up and the potential close games go the other way.
While last year’s schedule was daunting, this year’s slate of games isn’t as intimidating. Unlike last year with Notre Dame and Ohio State, Purdue has only one ranked team on the schedule right now – Wisconsin.
In July, Purdue was a projected favorite in six games (Indiana State, Syracuse. Florida Atlantic, Illinois, Northwestern, Indiana), an underdog in five (Penn State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Iowa) and the matchup at Maryland was a pick 'em, according to VSIN.com. But as always, the Boilermakers enter every season with a small margin for error.
Can Purdue put together a special season?
Let’s explore:
Need to win
Indiana State (Sept. 10): The matchup against the Sycamores will snap a streak of 67 consecutive games against FBS programs, dating back to the 2016 opener against Eastern Kentucky. Brohm has never faced an FCS program during his tenure with the Boilermakers and he’ll see Indiana State two more times, assuming he remains the head coach through 2026. The Sycamores receive $500,000 for this year’s game.
Syracuse (Sept. 17): Tricky road game at a low-level ACC opponent and the stakes could be high depending on what happens in Thursday’s opener against Penn State. If Purdue is coming off a loss, dropping to 1-2 could throw this season off the rails. Or the Boilermakers could be looking at a 3-0 start and building momentum by the week. Regardless, Purdue needs to return with a victory.
Florida Atlantic (Sept. 24): Don’t sleep on the Owls, who have a dynamic offense and plenty of playmakers to challenge the defense under head coach Willie Taggert. Points are expected to come in bunches during his primetime matchup on Homecoming between two former head coaches at Western Kentucky. Brohm’s coach at Louisville, Howard Schnellenberger started the program and guided FAU from 2001 through 2011. Brohm served as Schnellenberger’s quarterback's coach in 2009. Purdue is paying FAU $1.2 million to visit West Lafayette.
Nebraska (Oct. 15): Who knows what the state of the Huskers will be – or if they’ll have a new coach – by the time this game starts before a sold-out crowd at Ross-Ade Stadium. Right now, Nebraska is reeling and could straighten itself out over the next month or continue to slide. The Boilermakers have played the Huskers tough under Brohm and there’s no reason that shouldn’t continue.
Iowa (Nov. 5): If 10 wins are in the picture, beating the Hawkeyes again is a must. Brohm is 4-1 against Kirk Ferentz and two of his former players – Tyrone Tracy and Charlie Jones – are now Boilermakers, looking to showcase their abilities against their former teammates. By this point, Tracy and Jones should be the top two receivers for quarterback Aidan O’Connell.
Illinois (Nov. 12): Under Bret Bielema, the Fighting Illini are improving and feature one of the league’s top running backs with Chase Brown. The defense will have to hold up to reach early November in good shape. The schedule grows tougher for Illinois deeper into the season and the Purdue game is sandwiched between Michigan State and Michigan. If the Boilermakers make this far without serious injuries, the momentum will continue.
Northwestern (Nov. 19): If Purdue comes to the home finale in good shape, it’s hard to see it dropping this game before Phase 1 renovations begin. Granted, the Wildcats showed against Nebraska in the opener they can take over games on the ground behind a big and talented offensive line. Coach Pat Fitzgerald has won three of the five meetings against Brohm because his teams are more physical, but the Boilermakers are starting to change that narrative.
Indiana (Nov. 26): The Big Ten West title could be at stake or Purdue might be struggling to become bowl eligible. This is a must-win game every season.
Coin flips
Penn State (Thursday): Since the Boilermakers are a 3.5-point underdog for the opener, this one could go either way. The Nittany Lions traditionally dominate the Boilermakers with solid play at the line of scrimmage but that is no longer a strength of coach James Franklin’s program. Purdue has experience on the offensive and defensive lines and is better positioned to hold up compared to the game in 2019 when Penn State sacked Jack Plummer 10 times. A win catapults the Boilermakers into a different stratosphere and sets the stage for a special season. A loss doesn’t end the quest for a special year but makes the road that more difficult.
Minnesota (Oct. 1): This will be the start of an important month, especially if the Boilermakers start the season 4-0 or even 3-1. While Brohm has tormented Iowa and holds the upper hand against Nebraska, P.J. Fleck and the Gophers are a different story. Purdue is 1-4 against Minnesota, which has won those matchups by displaying a physical style and outmuscling the Boilermakers at the line of scrimmage. Will this trend change? Depending on how the first four games unfold, Purdue could absorb a loss and still be in good shape. But the Boilermakers need a win over the Gophers to show they’re real.
Maryland (Oct. 8): Defense will likely be optional in this high-powered matchup featuring two offenses who know how to score. The Terrapins are uber-talented on offense with one of the top quarterback and receiver combinations in the nation. They also bring back all five starters on the offensive line. Purdue will have to bring its ‘A’ game on offense and hope the defense can create a turnover or three.
Wisconsin (Oct. 22): The Boilermakers are moving closer to the Badgers but still can’t conquer them. It’s 15 straight losses, nine of those in West Lafayette. This year’s matchup is in Madison where Purdue has played well under Brohm but must find the magic pixie dust to slow down Wisconsin’s powerful running game, which is led by Braelon Allen. For the Boilermakers to reach their goal of winning the Big Ten West, they must beat either Minnesota or the Badgers.
Mike Carmin covers Purdue sports for the Journal & Courier and USA Today Network. Email mcarmin@gannett.com and follow on Twitter and Instagram @carmin_jc
This article originally appeared on Lafayette Journal & Courier: 2022 Purdue football schedule breakdown: Path to 10 wins exists but is it realistic?
