Purdue football at Wisconsin: Who has the edge
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Breaking down Saturday’s matchup between Purdue and Wisconsin at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison:
Purdue running game vs. Wisconsin against the run
The walk-on star Devin Mockobee continues to impress. He’s coming off a 178-yard performance against Nebraska and will receive a majority of the carries against the Badgers with Dylan Downing (foot) still sidelined and King Doerue (calf) not yet 100%, even though he played last week. Mockobee burst on the scene with a touchdown run at Syracuse and hasn’t slowed down. Credit the offensive line for opening the holes and letting Mockobee do the work from there. His cutback moves come with anticipation and once he gets in the open field the Boonville native is tough to bring down. Ohio State plastered the Badgers’ run defense for 258 yards, but the Boilermakers won’t come close to matching those numbers. Despite its issues, Wisconsin is still a tough defense to run against but there are more openings than in previous seasons. Purdue is a more balanced team than it was at the start of the season and coach Jeff Brohm continues to trust his run game and offensive line deeper into games. Edge: Purdue
Wisconsin running game vs. Purdue against the run
Go back through the 15-game losing streak to the Badgers and you’ll find one consistent theme - Wisconsin mauls the Boilermakers on the ground. That’s the main reason why Purdue hasn’t beaten this program since 2003. Future NFL running backs and massive offensive linemen have owned the line of scrimmage in nearly every matchup. Last year, the Badgers rolled up 290 rushing yards – thanks to Braelon Allen, who is still around – and attempted just eight passes. Wisconsin is averaging 274.6 rushing yards in the last five meetings in the series. However, there’s some evidence the Badgers are not the dominant force they once were on the ground. Allen has three 100-yard rushing games against Big Ten teams but managed just two yards against Illinois. The Boilermakers have been stingy against the run, holding conference opponents to 84.8 yards through four games, and the defensive line continues to do its job. But it’s hard to buck the trend in this series and Purdue has to prove it can step up and keep the Badgers from owning this area. Edge: Wisconsin
Purdue passing game vs. Wisconsin against the pass
Aidan O’Connell made a handful of throws that will make NFL scouts notice against Nebraska that showed the sixth-year quarterback is all the way back from his injury suffered a month ago at Syracuse. His throws have plenty of zip and the accuracy has returned. The numbers may not completely reflect that statement but when plays needed to be made, O’Connell delivered with the help of his receivers. Charlie Jones returned to what we saw at the beginning of the year but was injured late against Nebraska and didn't practice this week, a concern for Saturday's game. The emergence of TJ Sheffield is a nice option for O’Connell and Brohm and tight end Payne Durham is always lurking in the middle of the field. Northwestern trailed for most of the game and ended up with 41 pass attempts against the Badgers, but Michigan State quarterback Payton Thorne picked on the secondary for a 75% completion rate and a pair of touchdowns in the double-overtime win. Wisconsin corralled seven interceptions the first three weeks – all non-conference games – but has only four since then. O’Connell wasn’t sacked last week – on 54 pass attempts - and if he continues to have time in the pocket, he’ll find the openings. Edge: Purdue
Wisconsin passing game vs. Purdue against the pass
The No. 1 question – why so many busted coverages and breakdowns in the secondary against Nebraska? All correctable issues, according to Brohm but we'll see if they are fixed. Although the Badgers aren’t known as a passing team, don’t be surprised if quarterback Graham Mertz unleashes a deep ball on the first play to see if the Boilermakers have corrected their problems. The more likely scenario is Mertz will use play-action to test the back half and see if Purdue cleaned up its mistakes. The return of Chris Jefferson to safety and nickel would help but he didn’t practice this week. There are no personnel moves that can be made at this stage of the season. Chimere Dike is the top target and hauled in 10 passes for 185 yards and three touchdowns against Northwestern. The Badgers don’t feature the speed of Trey Palmer, the Huskers receiver who ran free most of last week. But this is about cornerbacks Cory Trice, Jamari Brown, and Reese Taylor along with safeties Cam Allen and Sanoussi Kane getting a shot at redemption. Edge: Wisconsin
Special teams
Some of the mishaps against Nebraska didn’t cost the Boilermakers but those are areas that must get cleaned up. A missed extra point and field goal. A blocked punt. Remember, Purdue plays close games, and those mistakes can and will play a factor if it continues. Wisconsin's Isaac Guerendo is one of the top kickoff returners in the Big Ten, averaging 24.7 yards. Nate Van Zeist is 23-for-23 on PATs but attempted just three field goals. Edge: Purdue
Prediction
The 15-game losing streak against the Badgers started with the Kyle Orton fumble in 2004 and the trajectory of Purdue’s program hasn’t fully recovered. The opportunities to end the streak have been there once games have started but this year represents the best chance to exorcise those demons and take a step toward winning the Big Ten West prior to kickoff. The Boilermakers have momentum, riding a four-game winning streak, and Wisconsin is trying to re-set after a midseason coaching change with the firing of Paul Chryst and the promotion of defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard to interim coach. But Purdue can’t let the Badgers jump-start their running game, own the line of scrimmage and still give up big chunks of yardage in the secondary, or another long day – and another loss – will add to the misery in the series. The Boilermakers need balance, O’Connell to deliver more NFL-caliber throws and the run defense to stand up once again. It's important for Purdue to match Illinois since the Fighting Illini knocked off the Badgers in case tiebreakers are required. Time for the streak to end. Purdue 29, Wisconsin 27
Mike Carmin covers Purdue sports for the Journal & Courier and USA Today Sports Network. Email mcarmin@gannett.com and follow on Twitter and Instagram @carmin_jc
This article originally appeared on Lafayette Journal & Courier: Purdue football at Wisconsin: Who has the edge
