Putin’s new war, inside and out

It’s an event that Russians, Ukrainians and the rest of the world have been thinking about, but one that many people didn’t think would actually happen: Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Tense warnings and attempts at diplomacy have been discarded, with airstrikes and resistance arriving instead. Today, Playbook author Ryan Lizza talks with two journalists — Nataliya Gumenyuk and Uliana Pavlova — about the events unfolding in Kyiv and along the Russian border right outside of the Donbas region. Transcribed excerpts from that conversation are below, edited for length and readability.

On Putin’s true intentions for invading Ukraine:

Ryan: What do most people in the government and journalists like you who are well-informed believe the goal is here? Putin's intentions are unclear and have been unclear and we've all been debating the different scenarios. Do you believe that the worst case scenario is the most likely? In other words, that he wants to decapitate the government and occupy the whole country? What's your current expectations or beliefs about the ultimate goal here?

Nataliya Gumenyuk: It's clear that the strategy is to occupy the country. It's clear. There is no doubt. It sounds so strange to admit, but I should say it's like he just hates Ukraine. I'm talking to Russian liberal media, but I'm also in touch with a person who used to, let's say … be closer to the government side. … And he was like "How are you?" and said "It's horrible. I couldn't believe that would happen. It's like he just got mad with Ukraine.” He just got mad with Ukraine, with the reason Ukraine is something he doesn't want to have, something he can't control. He controls everything in Russia. He managed to control Central Asia and Belarus. And that's kind of a place he cannot control, but he thinks he should. It's a democratic state and all the revolution we've done, he opted for a different candidate in the elections, so he feels Ukraine betrayed him. He has some fictional and mythical idea about the country. But there are a lot of determined people — they would resist. So imposing something, creating a puppet regime feels like they won't get this goal. Even if with incredible force, that won't last, that won't hold. That would be so artificial. It's a big country. It's as big as France. It's a huge thing.

On the West’s current response to Ukraine:

Ryan: Is there anything that the West is not doing — that the EU, that NATO, that the United States is not doing — that you think it should be doing?

Nataliya: I should say that one of my colleagues said that he feels betrayed because it's definitely not enough for all of these hours. My question would be there were these warnings for quite a long time. Should I be the one who's giving that advice on what to do? Why don't they have a plan? Why does it take so long to take a plan? If there were intelligence, should it be like the NSA, say that at a moment it happened, there is an answer. It happened again as it was described by the U.S. intelligence, so why is there no kind of a blueprint on how to act. But so far there are more talks. As somebody being all of the time kind of on the humanitarian side, I still say the only thing which I see that works are the Javelins, which were given to Ukraine. That's the only thing which really works.

On the Russian people’s distaste with a war on Ukraine:

Ryan: There has been some polling that suggests that the Russian population is not exactly wildly excited about, before the invasion, the prospect of war. Do you think as things drag on, if this becomes — as a lot of people predict — a messy occupation, that it could have any impact on Putin's popularity in Russia? Or is it the opposite? Is it like Crimea when his popularity jumped up double digits in the polling?

Uliana Pavlova: This time feels very, very different. Crimea — in Russian people's minds, it was an easy win. Some green Russian man just appeared in Crimea, and they always point to a referendum as if it was a peaceful process. People in Crimea decided to become a part of Russia. Where here you see, actually through social media, bombs falling on Kiev, Kharkiv, Odessa. And I think it just becomes very hard to justify these actions in a lot of people's minds. So I think a lot of people are actually horrified right now. I think a lot of people are really questioning President Putin's judgment on this. Of course, there has to be polling done to really prove it. But from everyone I spoke to, everyone is very concerned and I think actually also very scared, even though, we don't have anyone bombing people in Russia. But it is really scary to realize that we have just started a war in Europe.

On the long-term effects the invasion of Ukraine will have on Russia:

Ryan: One of the things that really comes out talking to you is the sort of shock, the surprise and shock about what's happening, even though Western intelligence has been talking about this forever. It sounds like you like a lot of people are having trouble believing that Russia went forward with the full scale invasion of a sovereign country. I'm just curious, as someone who lives in Russia, what's your sense in terms of how this changes Russia in the long term?

Uliana: Well, certainly things will not be the same anymore. I think Russia has done something that will not be forgiven. The fact that Russia invaded one of its closest neighbors, this will stay with people for a long time and the world will remember this. What it means for the future of Russia and the future of Ukraine, I cannot say right now. But what I can say is that things will get a lot, lot worse from here. I think that's a sense that everyone has. There is no hope for an easy or good resolution to this crisis that was created.