Putin's decision on Wagner puts him in an awkward position – ISW

Ukrainska Pravda
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Specialists at the Institute for the Study of War have come to the conclusion that the decision by the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin not to punish the mutineers from the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC) puts him and his subordinates in an awkward position.

Source: ISW

Details: The review notes that Ukrainian troops conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three areas of the front on 9 July.

In addition, analysts point to the fact that unknown persons posted an image similar to Wagner PMC’s founding statutes on the internet on 9 July.

"Possibly to present the Wagner Group as a professional organisation," analysts suggest.

Analysts point out that the document confirms that Wagner’s fundamental principles are to fight Russia's war in Ukraine "in loyal service to Russian President Vladimir Putin" and "the Russian people."

According to experts, the decision by the Russian President Vladimir Putin, not to punish the Wagner Group and not to prosecute the participants of the mutiny puts him and his subordinates in an awkward position.

"It remains unclear who benefits from the leak of Wagner’s alleged founding document as the document makes the Wagner Group look professional and appealing in comparison with the regular Russian military," the review concludes.

It is also noted that Wagner is still recruiting new members in Russia, while the Ministry of Defence of Russia is conducting a competitive campaign to recruit Wagner fighters to sign contracts with the Russian Defence Ministry.

Analysts add that Putin's decision not to disband Wagner, formerly Russia's most combat-ready force, makes it difficult for Putin and Russian security forces to understand how to handle Wagner, its leaders and its fighters.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways for 9 July:

  • The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that Ukrainian forces are attempting to soften Russian defences before liberating territory, accepting a slower pace of advance.

  • US President Joe Biden stated that Ukraine cannot join NATO until Russia's war in Ukraine is over.

  • Russian troops conducted limited ground attacks north of Svatove and south of Kreminna.

  • Ukrainian and Russian troops continued counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut area.

  • Russian and Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and Russian forces advanced as of 9 July.

  • Ukrainian forces continued to advance in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia oblasts’ administrative border area, and continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast..

  • Russian forces reportedly continued to reestablish previously flooded positions on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.

  • Russian sources accused Ukrainian forces of targeting the Kerch Strait Bridge.

  • The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) is reportedly accepting Wagner Group mercenaries for contract service with the Russian MoD in Molkino, Krasnodar Krai.

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