Raúl Castro is slated to step down from the Communist Party. Is Cuba in for a change?

For the first time in over five decades, a leader without the last name Castro is expected to take the helm of Cuba’s ruling party as officials try to usher through a generational leadership change amid a crushing economic crisis.

Raul Castro is expected to step down as the Communist Party’s first secretary general, considered the most powerful political position on the island, during the organization’s Eighth Congress, which is slated to begin Friday.

The transition comes at Cuba’s most trying moment in years. The island is the throes of its worst economic contraction since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Painful economic reforms have sent inflation soaring. Long lines for food have again become commonplace. Trump-era sanctions have reduced access to vital economic lifelines like remittances. And a nascent but increasingly vocal social movement is channeling mounting frustration.

Though billed as a “Congress of Continuity,” the Communist Party will be under pressure to accelerate the pace of economic reforms begun a decade ago.

“It’s not just a matter of putting a younger person in that position, it’s a matter of fundamentally changing the system. And there is pressure to do that from some factions, but there’s also a lot of resistance,” said Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, a think tank based in Washington. “It’s going to be an extremely interesting congress because it happens in the context of the worst economic situation in 30 years.”

Long lines to buy food have become commonplace in Cuba as the island’s economy has deteriorated to its worst moment in almost 30 years, falling 11% in 2020, the biggest drop since 1993. This week’s Communist Party Congress will be under pressure to open the economy to more private investment among other measures.
Long lines to buy food have become commonplace in Cuba as the island’s economy has deteriorated to its worst moment in almost 30 years, falling 11% in 2020, the biggest drop since 1993. This week’s Communist Party Congress will be under pressure to open the economy to more private investment among other measures.

The Communist Party’s official agenda for the congress includes three key items: Castro’s replacement, which could involve a wider changing of the guard among the top brass after Castro himself said at the 2016 conference that Cuba’s leaders were “too old” and their terms should be limited; a review of economic policies and goals announced in the 2011 congress; and an analysis of the party’s political work.

The party’s 2011 congress was considered a landmark event with the announcement of over 300 economic reforms, including measures to encourage more private initiative and expand private property ownership. The reforms were considered the biggest shake-up to the island’s state-run socialist economy in decades.

But a decade later, many of the ideas introduced are barely getting off the ground.

In January, the government did away with a confusing dual-currency system, eliminating an artificial hard currency called the CUC, or the Cuban convertible peso, and set the official exchange rate at 24 pesos to the dollar - a devaluation of 2,400%. The changes set off a spike in inflation, with some prices rising as much as 500%, for instance, in the case of electricity.

Salaries for state employees and pensioners and the minimum salary were raised to make up for the changes, but the price of food, medicine and other goods rose at a much higher pace. And the pay for some of the workforce and in the informal economy hasn’t increased.

In this 2013 photo a Cuban shows Cuban Pesos in one hand and Convertible Pesos in the other. The government began to eliminate the dual currency system in January.
In this 2013 photo a Cuban shows Cuban Pesos in one hand and Convertible Pesos in the other. The government began to eliminate the dual currency system in January.

There’s a lot of wishful thinking among Cuba observers that this congress could be less a ritualistic display of support for the principles of the revolution and more a discussion about the need for reforms, perhaps even with a more pragmatic approach given the circumstances, said Gregory Biniowsky, a Canadian lawyer and consultant who’s lived in Cuba for three decades.

But don’t expect any radical change, he said.

“It could be a game changer,” he said. “It’s not going to be overnight, but it’s going to be a sea change, a fundamental shift, but it won’t happen from one day to the next.”

He said the expectations on the street in different groups, from government officials to Cubans who believe in the socialist system but want change to improve the economy, is that the generational leadership change can strengthen the country and reduce the risk of collapse.

But he also said frustration is at the highest level he’s ever seen, especially among younger generations who have largely only known life in Cuba post-Soviet Union. That’s more than half of the island’s population of about 11 million, and they won’t pay much attention to announcements by the congress unless they have a direct effect on their daily lives.

“The disgruntled young guy on the street will say ‘Oh, they are all the same, the congress or leadership change won’t make a difference,’” he said. “But if you talk to some people in the government who want change, without collapse, I think there’s some open expectation that that a new composition within the Politburo will usher that in.”

Cuba’s Communist Party, founded in 1965, is the only party allowed on the island, and has been trying to diversify its ranks, bringing in younger people, more women and minorities, in a bid to stay relevant. Per state media, the average age of the organization’s professional staff is now 42.5 and over half of the party’s cadre are women. But the top two positions - first and second secretary - are held by Castro, 89, and José Ramón Machado Ventura, 90.

“This will be the Congress of Continuity,” the event’s official convocation announced, “expressed in the gradual and orderly transition of the main responsibilities of the country to new generations.”

Delegates from all over Cuba are scheduled to gather in Havana April 16-19 for the Communist Party Congress to take stock of the economy and set goals for the next decade. The congress happens every five years.
Delegates from all over Cuba are scheduled to gather in Havana April 16-19 for the Communist Party Congress to take stock of the economy and set goals for the next decade. The congress happens every five years.

Many Cubans aren’t optimistic that a younger leader like current President Miguel Diáz-Canel, who is widely expected to become the party’s new chief, will bring much change.

Eloy Calunga, a 30-year-old from Santiago de Cuba, the island’s second-largest city, said the congress is out of touch with how most in the country feel. He accused Cuba’s leaders of turning their backs on the people and working only to create wealth for themselves.

“There is no medicine, no food. There’s daily abuse by police everywhere,” he said. “Earlier this year I could eat lunch for 10 pesos and now I need 50 or more. Most products are out of reach for a majority of Cubans without access to dollars.”

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Many will be watching to see whether Diáz-Canel, the 60-year-old civilian president that Castro handpicked three years ago to succeed him, begins to chart his own path as head of the party, without members of the old guard ruling above him. A loyal technocrat, he has stuck close to the core socialist tenets of the revolution, frequently using the hashtag #SomosContinuidad, or #WeAreContinuity in his statements on social media.

For Alejandro Gómez, a graphic designer from Havana, the Castro legacy will continue to have a strong influence in government even with both brothers out.

“There’s a well-structured mechanism that allows the Castro family to continue to govern the country,” he said. To him, the congress is a “show in which the ruling class gets together and wastes tons of paper in surreal plans and unachievable guidelines.”

He said his life has deteriorated “very quickly” since January, and that he’s finding it hard to make a living selling posters to companies.

Even if Castro exits public life, he will likely continue to play an outsize role in the party’s leadership and in supporting Diáz-Canel in what’s expected to be a painful time of necessary reform, experts say. The party’s conclave, scheduled for April 16-19 in Havana, will likely shed light on how and how much Castro will participate in the transition that’s expected to give Diáz-Canel more leeway in influencing investment and monetary policy. Though no longer first secretary, Castro could retain a role as a member of the Political Bureau.

Miguel Diáz-Canel is expected to be named First Secretary of Cuba’s Communist Party at its congress this week after current chief Raúl Castro said the island’s leadership needs new blood.
Miguel Diáz-Canel is expected to be named First Secretary of Cuba’s Communist Party at its congress this week after current chief Raúl Castro said the island’s leadership needs new blood.

Measures to control inflation in the wake of a painful currency reform that was approved a decade ago but only started being implemented recently will likely be discussed at the congress. The monetary reform aims to weaken the peso and make exports more attractive, among other goals, but has had a crushing effect on average Cubans.

“They are going to evaluate the economy during the 2016 to 2020 period, and there isn’t anything that great to say about that time,” said economist Omar Everleny Pérez. “Cuba had very low growth or contraction, falling exports and a weaker agriculture output.”

He said the congress should announced “bold actions,” prioritizing projects that can realistically be approved, such expanding access to the internet, using new financial instruments to refine monetary policy and investing in more renewable energy.

Under Castro, the government began allowing people to buy and sell their cars and homes for the first time in decades, and allowed for more foreign ownership of local businesses. Internet access and cell phones were allowed. But the piecemeal expansion of Cuba’s private sector has been plagued by the island’s suffocating bureaucracy.

“The revolution has created this massive bureaucracy and it doesn’t work for short-term action,” Biniowsky said. “So you can have a reformist leader and a list of great initiatives, but the bureaucracy won’t let them go through.”

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Recently the government announced an expansion of activities open to private enterprise, but kept the country’s most strategic and lucrative sectors under state power, including health care, education, media, and engineering.

The new list seems to open major new space for manufacturing. Cubans will now be able to apply for licenses to open cheese, paint and toy factories, for instance, though the government has not yet defined the permitted size of such ventures.

Cuba has been able to control the spread of the coronavirus, but the slump in tourism slashed a key source of hard currency and plunged the island into severe food shortages.
Cuba has been able to control the spread of the coronavirus, but the slump in tourism slashed a key source of hard currency and plunged the island into severe food shortages.

And there’s talk that Cuba will change its laws to allow for “personas juridicas,” or businesses and corporations that can sell shares and be bought and sold. Cuba’s private sector is basically made up of cooperatives or licenses that are held by individuals.

Many on the island are anxious for more decisive action and anti-regime protests have increased in recent months, buoyed by the growing access to social media. The San Isidro movement, a group of artists and intellectuals demanding greater freedom of expression, and the recent “Patria y Vida” music video, which went viral for proposing an antithesis to Fidel’s mantra “Patria o Muerte,” adds to pressure on Castro and Diáz-Canel to improve protections of human rights and hurry with reforms that can help put food on the table for the vast majority.

And while for now the U.S. is staying put in its policies towards Cuba, the Biden administration might begin to make some humanitarian moves if the party congress commits to efforts to improve the lives of its citizens, said Jorge Duany, director of the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University.

“There’s no urgency in the Biden administration to take any decisive measures on Cuba,” he said, “because it’s not really politically significant right now.”

El Nuevo Herald staff writer Mario J. Penton contributed to this report.