The Race to Replace George Santos Is Going to Be a Close One

New York’s 3^rd Congressional District is gearing up for a very special election on Tuesday to replace disgraced Republican George Santos. And the race between establishment Democrat Tom Suozzi and Republican newcomer Mazi Pilip is expected to be a nail-biter.

New York’s 3^rd is a big swing district with a predominantly white and college-educated population that includes parts of Queens and Long Island’s Nassau County. It’s one of the wealthiest districts in the country, and both Democrats and Republicans want it bad. Democrats held the district from 2012 until 2020, when Santos flipped it for Republicans. Now, both sides are vying to reclaim it, as Republicans fight to hold on to their four-seat majority—they failed to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas with the loss of Santos’ vote.

Both parties have made the race about the most contentious national issues—immigration, abortion and the Israel-Hamas war—pushing New York’s 3^rd to potentially become a “suburban crystal ball” for the general election later this year.

Here’s what you should know about the two candidates running for Santos’ old seat.

Suozzi is a familiar name in New York. He got his start in politics when he became mayor of his hometown of Glen Cove, a wealthy suburb in the 3^rd District, at only 31 years old, and then held the job for eight years. He moved on to become the first Democrat to be elected as Nassau County executive in 2001, and in 2006 he ran for governor against Eliot Spitzer—and lost pretty spectacularly, not even carrying his own county.

In 2016, Suozzi returned to politics after a short break, announced he was running for Congress, and won the district with 53 percent of the vote. He managed to hold on to that seat for three consecutive terms, fending off Republican challengers in all three of his election cycles, including Santos in 2020. But Suozzi wasn’t done trying to become New York’s governor, stepping down from his seat in 2022 to run against incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul. He lost, earning only 12 percent of the vote, while Santos struck gold and flipped Suozzi’s old district to red.

Suozzi wants his old job back now, and a win here would get Democrats one seat closer to reclaiming their majority in the House—if Suozzi wins, they need to flip four more seats in 2024 to overtake Republicans’ majority. They’ve spent close to $9 million on Suozzi’s campaign.

At a rally with women supporters, Suozzi said he was “100 percent committed to abortion remaining safe, legal, and accessible in the United States.” He also ran a TV ad centered on his immigration plan, which includes closing portions of the U.S.–Mexico border and creating paths to citizenship for migrants. As for the war, Suozzi said his fellow Democrats in Washington are “clueless” for calling for limiting U.S. aid to Israel.

Two months before his special election, Suozzi even flew to Israel and visited a kibbutz targeted by Hamas on Oct. 7. He told Politico, “If you care about Israel and you want bipartisan support for Israel to continue into the future, you need strong, outspoken pro-Israel Democrats.”

Pillip joined politics just three years ago after she flipped a Democrat-held Nassau County Legislature seat in 2021, a job she was reelected to just last year. Though she ran on the Republican ticket in those elections, Pilip has been a registered Democrat since 2012, Politico reported.

That hasn’t bothered Nassau County Republicans, though, who tapped her to run for Santos’ seat, emphasizing her “unique biography.” The 47-year-old was born in Ethiopia, immigrated to Israel, and went on to serve in the Israel Defense Forces. After attending college and getting married, Pilip moved to the U.S. in 2005 and is now a mother to seven children.

As she campaigns for the coveted 3^rd Congressional District House seat, Pilip has leaned into her Jewish identity. Attending a vigil for a local New York man taken hostage by Hamas on Oct. 7, Pilip referred to him as “my brother,” and has made impassioned statements about the war. “I stand strong with our communities in support of Israel, Ukraine, and all nations that are subjects of terrorism,” Pilip said at a rally. As with many Republicans running for office around the country, Pilip has remained vague about her support for Donald Trump. She refused to say who she voted for in the 2020 election, but said she would support whoever becomes the GOP nominee this year.

Pilip said she agreed with the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, saying, “each state is now dealing with it in the way it’s supposed to deal with this.” She opposes a national abortion ban and supports keeping the abortion drug mifepristone available nationally. During back-to-back press conferences with her Democratic opponent outside a migrant tent camp in Queens, Pilip railed against sanctuary city policies and said, if elected, she would “secure our border and invest in our brave ICE agents.”

In the final days of the race, Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson spoke at a fundraiser for Pilip and emphasized the New York Republican was capable of getting the job done. “It’ll send a strong message to the Democrats that coming into this election cycle, we got a great run, great candidates. We’re feeling really bullish about the future,” said Johnson.