Races to watch over the next year: California’s 10 most competitive 2024 House elections
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With less than a year until the next California primary election on March 5, analysts are watching key races with vulnerable incumbents that could decide which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives.
Ten California seats are in play, according three major election-tracking organizations.
The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections are among those that have started ranking House districts nationally. To measure partisan advantage, they use the ratings “likely,” “leaning,” “toss-up” and “likely.” The projections will probably shift over time, changing between now and next year’s election.
Many contenders have already announced, or at least filed the required paperwork. Prospective candidates have until mid-December to file.
These are the U.S. House races to watch in California according to analysts:
Likely Republican
3rd Congressional District
All three forecasters agree that the seat held by freshman Rep. Kevin Kiley, R-Rocklin, will likely remain in Republican control in 2024.
California’s 3rd, newly-formed by redistricting, stretches from the northern Sierra Nevada along the Nevada border into Death Valley. It did not have an incumbent in 2022.
Kiley, 38, previously represented the area around Rocklin in the State Assembly. He defeated veteran Dr. Kermit Jones, a Democrat. in 2022. Jones has not filed for a 2024 rematch.
40th Congressional District
California’s 40th will likely remain in the GOP in 2024, forecasters say. Represented by Rep. Young Kim, R-La Habra, the 40th district holds parts of Orange, San Bernardino and Riverside counties.
Kim, 60, has represented parts of Southern California in the House since 2021. She beat Democrat Dr. Asif Mahmood in 2022, when the district was also considered likely for a Republican.
Leans Republican
22nd Congressional District
The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections project a slight GOP advantage for the seat held by Rep. David Valadao, R-Hanford. Sabato’s Crystal Ball calls the 2024 race is a toss-up.
California’s 22nd, which was a toss-up in 2022 as well, includes most of Kings County and parts of Tulare and Kern counties in the San Joaquin Valley.
Valadao, 46, has represented the area around his hometown of Hanford in Congress on and off for a decade. His last few races have been tough. In 2018, he lost by less than 2 percentage points to Democratic challenger T.J. Cox. Valadao regained the seat in 2020 by the same margin.
In 2022, he turned back a challenge from former Democratic Assemblyman Rudy Salas, winning by about a 3% margin. Salas has filed to run in 2024 but has not announced a campaign.
41st Congressional District
The GOP retains a slight edge in the 41st, analysts found.
The district, represented since 1993 by Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Corona, covers Riverside County.
Calvert, 69, had his closest House race in well over a decade in 2022, edging Democrat Will Rollins by less than 4 percentage points. Analysts rated that race as leaning Republican.
Rollins, a former federal prosecutor, has not filed or announced a 2024 rematch. Lake Elsinore Councilmember Tim Sheridan, a Democrat who last ran against Calvert in 2016, said he would run.
45th Congressional District
Experts agree that Rep. Michelle Steel’s district, the 45th, which takes in parts of Orange and Los Angeles counties, leans Republican in 2024, just as it did in 2022.
Steel, R-Seal Beach, 67, bested small business owner Jay Chen, a Democrat with 52.4% of the vote. She has represented the area since 2021.
Chen filed paperwork to contest her again in 2024 but has not announced a campaign. Garden Grove City Councilmember Kim Nguyen announced she would run.
Toss-up
13th Congressional District
Freshman Rep. John Duarte, R-Modesto, narrowly defeated former Assemblyman Adam Gray, a Merced Democrat, in one of the last 2022 House races to be called.
The open seat in California’s 13th, which holds all of Merced County and chunks of Madera, Stanislaus, Fresno and San Joaquin counties, was rated a toss-up or leaning Republican as Election Day approached. Earlier in the race, many analysts thought it leaned Democratic,given the party’s registration advantage and President Joe Biden’s win there in 2020.
The back-and-forth race ended when the Associated Press called it for Duarte, 56, on Dec. 2, 2022. The Modesto farmer beat the Assemblyman by just four-tenths of a point — 564 votes — making it the second-tightest 2022 House race.
Gray filed for a 2024 rematch. Although he has not announced a campaign, a handful of other Democrats have.
Analysts think this race will be a toss-up again in 2024.
27th Congressional District
California’s 27th, which covers most of northern Los Angeles County, is a toss-up in 2024, forecasters said. Ahead of Election Day last year, they thought it leaned toward the GOP and Rep. Mike Garcia, R-Santa Clarita.
Garcia, 47, has represented the area since he won a 2020 special election. He’s been challenged each time by former Democratic Assemblywoman Christy Smith, who Garcia defeated by more than 6 percentage points in 2022. She announced will not run again in 2024.
But Garcia will face at least two Democrats: George Whitesides, former chief executive of space-tourism company Virgin Galactic, and Franky Carrillo, who was wrongfully convicted of murder in 1991 and exonerated after 20 years in prison.
Leans Democratic
47th Congressional District
Rep. Katie Porter, D-Irvine, is relinquishing this seat to run for U.S. Senate against Reps. Adam Schiff, Barbara Lee and others to succeed outgoing Sen. Dianne Feinstein. The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections think Porter leaves the Democrats with a slight advantage. Sabato’s Crystal Ball calls the race a toss-up.
Analysts thought that the 47th, part of Orange County, would lean in favor of a Democrat in 2022 when Porter, 49, bested Republican Scott Baugh by just over 3 percentage points.
The 2024 field for the open seat has already drawn at least eight candidates. Baugh, an attorney, is running again. So is Democrat Joanna Weiss, founder of Women for American Values and Ethics, and State Sen. David Min, an Irvine Democrat.
Min earned Porter’s endorsement to replace her earlier this year. Last week, he was arrested for allegedly driving under the influence.
Likely Democratic
9th Congressional District
Sabato’s Crystal Ball says that a Democrat will likely prevail in California’s 9th, which takes in Stockton. Other analysts have not rated the district, held by Rep. Josh Harder, D-Tracy, indicating that they are more confident the incumbent will win.
Harder, 36, beat San Joaquin County Supervisor Tom Patti in 2022 with almost 55% of the vote. Analysts had thought the election would lean in favor of a Democrat.
Harder has been in the House since 2019, each election facing what analysts predicted to be a tough race. Ripon pastor Brett Dood said last week he would run in 2024 as a Republican to unseat Harder.
49th Congressional District
All three election-tracking groups find that the district, currently held by Rep. Mike Levin, D-San Juan Capistrano, will likely pick a Democrat again. The 49th covers northern coastal areas of San Diego County.
Levin, 44, defeated businessman Brian Maryott in 2022 by more than 5 percentage points when forecasters believed the district leaned Democratic. He has represented the area in the House since 2019. So far two Republican candidates have said they would run against him. Sheryl Adams, who works in marketing for the automotive industry, has announced. Businessman Matt Gunderson, who ran a close 2022 race against Democratic State Sen. Catherine Blakespear, then mayor of Encinitas, has too.
