Railbird Rob: And the Kentucky Derby winner is ...
I don't care about Stephen Foster's "Old Kentucky Home."
Mint Julips are overrated. Roses make me sneeze. Goofy hats are just plain goofy.
Yet, I love the Kentucky Derby, despite all the pomp and circumstance, despite all the over-the-top hype, despite all the traditions and despite all the nouveau cool that surrounds it today.
I love it for one reason: It's the only horse race in America that routinely pays out like a string lotto numbers hitting.
That's what 20 newbies climbing into the gate with an international audience wagering millions on the outcome gets a person walking up to the pay window.
To the smart handicapper — and admittedly the lucky one too — the race can produce life-changing money. I've seen it with my own eyes.
That's why I love it, and that's why I study it.
I've charted every Kentucky Derby held since 1980 — throwing out the COVID-19 delayed race of 2020 because it didn't fit the profile of every other one held at Churchill Downs since the 1800s.
I look for trends at how the best 3-year-old thoroughbreds of the past handled the dirt at a mile-and-a-quarter for the first time in their lives. What's the prevailing handicapping strategy?
What is the best way to run the race? Is it to set the pace, stalk the leaders or be a big closer down the stretch?
I look at some qualities in horses that former Derby winners exude, but I don't delve too deeply into pedigree.
I look at the jockeys and trainers with an emphasis on the good hands who ride them. This isn't a place where career mid-card jocks rise to fame. The best of the best are generally rewarded here.
If the weather is bad like it could be in Louisville at this time of year, can a horse run on a sloppy, messy track and does he show that in his breeding?
Post position is a factor.
Some Derby prep races are better than others, but which ones?
And then there are the horses that fill out tickets by finishing second, third and fourth. What are the characteristics of those horses?
It's a lot.
Hours will be spent looking over the past performances with cross-references to my own charts.
If interested, I've written several columns over the years, breaking down the Derby and some of the factors that go into it. Feel free to take a look in the achieves by searching for "Railbird Rob" at MarionStar.com.
For online readers, here are the links to past pieces:
More: McCurdy: Numbers to know for the Kentucky Derby
More: McCurdy: Watch for the big Kentucky Derby payouts
More: Kentucky Derby chance to score big for handicappers
More: Anatomy of a Kentucky Derby ticket
More: McCurdy: California dreamin'
So after all that lead-up, this is what I like (although more rigorous study will continue throughout this afternoon and into the evening before the race):
Give me No. 15 White Abarrio.
I'm a sucker for Florida Derby runners and winners. Since 1980, 10 Kentucky winners also won that prep race and three other Kentucky winners also ran in that race. The Santa Anita Derby is another good precursor, but this year's California crop has serious flaws. The Wood, Bluegrass and Arkansas tend to be overrated as proving grounds for the big race at Churchill.
White Abarrio hasn't shown the early speed of an Epicenter, Taiba or Messier, but it's not like he's dragging a plow either. He runs a stalking style where he stays in touch with the lead pack until making a move later in the race, and that's an approach that was rewarded a bunch from 2003 to 2016.
The horse has shown an ability to work in crowds, navigating the 11-horse field at the Florida and nine-horse field at the Holy Bull. Last November he raced to a third-place in a graded stakes for 2-year-olds at Churchill.
He's already beaten fellow Derby runners Charge It, Simplification and Mo Donegal, and the 15-hole in the gate as produced a winner as recently as 2015.
Saffie Joseph is a leading trainer in Florida, and Tyler Gaffalione is nationally a top 10 jockey with a Preakness win already in his young career. He's a future superstar in the sport who has ridden White Abarrio in the two biggest wins of the horse's career, so he knows the colt's personality, strengths and weaknesses.
Finally, White Abarrio won't be the favorite, so there is good value if he finishes atop the ticket and that will help the payouts.
That's why I like White Abarrio to win the roses.
Epicenter, starting in gate No. 3, is my second choice and a co-favorite with me. Longtime trainer Steven Asmussen is 0-for-the-Derby in his career, but jockey Joel Rosario won the race in 2013 with Orb as a betting favorite. Epicenter has the speed to to stay upfront and showed plenty of stamina in getting faster as the race went at the Louisiana Derby.
Simply put, it's a horse that has steadily gotten better with each mount.
Favorites won six straight races from 2013 to 2018, but haven't won since. Epicenter and Zandon will likely be the two favorites at post time.
I'm lukewarm on Mo Donegal. The No. 1 post has been nothing but bad mojo over the years, and the Wood Memorial has a better reputation than it does results. Many sharps are skeptical of the speed rating of this year's Wood, too.
Taiba and Messier might be the two best horses in the field and certainly the fastest, but this is a race unlike anything they've experienced. For Taiba, one has to go back to the 1800s to find a Derby winner that had only run twice before the Derby and won. Messier seems to lack heart when challenged. Neither have raced in big fields.
No. 10 Zandon is a closer, but with this kind of talent in the race, he's going to have to make up a lot of ground late if he gets off to his typical slow start. Unlike Derbys of yore, the speed horses have better endurance these days which makes reeling them in down the stretch a chore. Since 2013, there has been only one off-pace win. Instead, front-running has won the last four Derbys.
Finally, don't overlook the longshots to fill out the exotic bets of trifectas and superfectas. History shows one or two bombers will crop up on tickets, and that's where the big money is found.
No. 9 Tiz the Bomb, No. 16 Cyberknife, No. 13 Simplification, No. 5 Smile Happy and No. 8 Charge It should be considered when looking for horses to fill out tickets. Someone's going to blow up the tote board, so be ready for it.
There you go.
You can have the sappy song, the watered down drink, the silly hat and all the other falderal, I'm watching for the lotto-style payouts.
Rob McCurdy is the sports writer at the Marion Star and can be reached at rmccurdy@gannett.com, 419-610-0998, Twitter @McMotorsport and Instagram @rob_mccurdy_star.
Railbird Rob's Kentucky Derby 2022 Picks
15 — White Abarrio (Gaffalione) 10-1
3 — Epicenter (Rosario) 7-2
16 — Cyberknife (Geroux) 20-1
9 — Tiz The Bomb (Hernadez Jr.) 30-1
Also watch: 1-Mo Donegal, 13-Simplification, 5-Smile Happy, 8-Charge It.
This article originally appeared on Marion Star: Railbird Rob: And the Kentucky Derby winner is ...
