Rain across Florida may lead to flash flooding, NWS warns. What about Thanksgiving weather?

A low-pressure area in the Caribbean is showing signs of forming into a tropical depression, or possibly a mix of tropical and non-tropical storms, to bring heavy rains up the nation's east coast Friday and Saturday.

But we're dealing with stormy skies now. A storm system moving east over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to combine with a frontal system near the southern part of the state to dump rain across most of Florida through the middle of the week, according to the National Weather Service, with potentially very heavy rainfall, pounding waves and localized flash and coastal flooding. Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday evening in some areas, forecasters said.

"This will especially be the case for southern Florida and potentially the highly urbanized I-95 corridor from West Palm Beach and Fort Lauderdale down through Miami," said NWS forecaster Andrew Orrison Tuesday. "Locally several inches of rain will be possible across these areas, and there will be a notable concern for urban flash flooding should these rains materialize."

You know it's going to be bad if the Weather Channel's harbinger of doom Jim Cantore noticed it.

What will the weather be like in Florida this week?

Rain, mostly. Just about the entire state can expect to see showers off and on through Thursday, according to the NWS, but flooding will be an issue for the east coast and inland rivers. A flood watch will be in effect from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon for east-central Florida from Coastal Volusia County down to inland Martin County, with 1 to 3 inches of rain expected and locally higher amounts to around 6 inches.

"Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations," the NWS said. "Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris."

The NWS also has issued a flood warning through 7 p.m. Friday for Lake and Volusia counties; a flood watch through 5 a.m. Wednesday for Metro Broward County, Metro Palm Beach County and Metropolitan Miami-Dade; and a flood watch through 7 p.m. Thursday for coastal Broward, Palm Beach and Miami-Dade. There is a coastal flood warning through 5 a.m. Wednesday for eastern Putnam, eastern Clay and inland St. Johns counties.

A high surf advisory is in effect in northeast Florida through early Wednesday morning, in south Florida and the Panhandle until Thursday morning, and east central Florida until 4 a.m. Friday with strong, rough waves between f and 9 feet tall in the surf zones in some areas. A high risk of dangerous rip currents is expected on the entire east coast through Friday, and in the Panhandle through Thursday morning.

Will it rain on Thanksgiving in Florida?

It's still a little early to predict specific temperatures and conditions, but according to NOAA's latest 6-10 day outlook there's a 33-40% chance of above-normal precipitation next week from roughly the I-4 corridor south, and an 40-50% chance of above-normal precipitation from central Florida up through the Panhandle.

Temperatures are expected to be in the 70s to low 80s with overnight temps in the 40s in North Florida and the 60s in the South.

What does AccuWeather predict for Thanksgiving weather?

For the holiday, AccuWeather is predicting temperatures in the high 60s and rain for North Florida and the Panhandle, the low 70s for Central Florida, the mid-to-high 70s and rain for Southwest Florida and the high 70s to low 80s for South Florida.

What does the Farmers Almanac predict for Thanksgiving weather in Florida?

According to the Almanac, it'll be time to "cuddle up with some hot apple cider!" Conditions for the Southeast, including Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida, are expected to be fair but cold. "Cold" being relative for the Sunshine State, of course.

The Almanac has predicted a return to cooler weather in its 2023-2024 winter forecast, with a greater chance of rain for the southeast.

"The Southeast and Florida will see a wetter-than-normal winter, with average winter temperatures overall, but a few frosts may send many shivers to snowbirds trying to avoid the cold and snow back home," the Farmers' Almanac predicted.

The Old Farmers' Almanac, a competitor, predicts warm weather and scattered showers for Nov. 23-30.

What did the Farmers' Almanac predict for Thanksgiving weather around the country?

If you'll be traveling for the holidays, here's what you can expect to run into, according to the Farmers' Almanac:

• Northeast & New England: New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Washington D.C. should see "mostly fair but cold weather."

• Great Lakes, Ohio Valley & Midwest: Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky, Illinois, and Wisconsin may see rain and possibly snow beforehand but see a "mostly fair but cold Thanksgiving."

• North Central: Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Wyoming, and Montana may get hit with light snow in the Rockies before the holiday, followed by a heavy snowfall in the Nebraska and Dakotas area.

• South Central: Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas, and New Mexico should see a "clear and cold" holiday, with some stormy weather from the west.

• Northwest: Washington, Oregon, and Idaho may see "rain and wet snow."

• Southwest: California, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona may be getting a "rainy Thanksgiving," the Almanac said.

This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: Thanksgiving weather Florida forecast: Rainy week ahead, may continue