Rain, wind forecast for weekend, maybe beyond

May 11—April showers may bring May flowers, but May is going to bring more showers to keep those flowers growing in Northern New Mexico.

And in the short run at least, the expected precipitation will help firefighters combat any blazes still burning this weekend.

However, there is also a chance it could lead to isolated flooding in the Sangre de Cristos and in the burn scar of last year's Hermits Peak/Calf Canyon Fire.

The National Weather Service in Albuquerque says the likelihood of rain showers in Northern New Mexico — including Santa Fe, Mora and Las Vegas — will increase by Saturday, with the chance of rain hitting as high as 90% in Mora on Sunday.

Even better news for firefighters is the probability that wind speeds will drop from the high gust range of up to 50 mph Thursday and Friday to somewhere in the 15-20 mph range by Saturday.

The Las Tusas Fire, which started Wednesday, was still raging west of Sapello Thursday and, aided in large part by high winds and dry conditions, had grown to more than 1,000 acres by midday.

Matt DeMaria, a meteorologist with the weather service in Albuquerque, said in an interview Thursday the region is expecting "an extended stretch of wetter, cooler weather with lighter winds. I imagine that will be appreciated by the people on the ground fighting the fire."

In addition, he said, "there are indications it could go beyond midweek. Through Wednesday and Thursday [of next week] we are seeing pretty good [wet] weather patterns. This system could be intact through next weekend. That's good news as well."

He said the moisture patterns are a result of a low pressure system to the west and a high pressure system to the east of the state which could bring "rounds of precipitation" to the area for days.

The potential wet windfall can help "rejuvenate soil moisture and put a damper on the fire season for at least a couple of weeks," he said.

Meanwhile, Santa Fe may be in for it share of wet manna from above as well. Meteorologist Troy Marshall said Thursday that while Santa Fe will see mostly sunny conditions with high temperatures in the mid-70s Friday, the skies will turn partly cloudy Saturday with a 50% chance of rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.

As Saturday gives way to Sunday, the chance for rain will increase to about 70% for the Santa Fe area, with temperatures hovering in the mid-60s. The forecast stands for Monday too, though the chance for rain drops to the 50% mark then, he said.

Tuesday looks wet too, with the chance of rain around the 70% mark and temperatures remaining in the mid-60s, Marshall said.

The weather service said in a news release Thursday afternoon that, while there is still plenty of uncertainty and forecasters expressed low confidence in their predictions, there is a possibility of flooding over the weekend or early next week. Forecasters expect increased moisture over the state as a "backdoor" front moves from the northeast to the southwest Friday night and increased atmospheric instability.

"What we do not have a good understanding is just how much instability or energy there will be for convective storms to develop," the weather service said. "The evolution of these upper-level disturbances has varied widely. These factors lead to a low-confidence forecast with wide ranges in precipitation amounts from very little to quite a bit."

As of Thursday afternoon, forecasters were predicting a low chance of flash flooding in the mountains and in Eastern New Mexico, "highly conditional on storms developing." There is also a low chance of rivers flooding due to higher flows. Forecasters said there is a moderate chance of hazards in the Hermits Peak/Calf Canyon burn scar.

The expected rain is not an indication of an early monsoon season, DeMaria said, which typically starts in mid-June in the region.

"This is not the monsoon; this is just spring storms, a whole separate entity, DeMaria said.

The storms, he said, will mostly hit in the afternoon "but we could see showers going on through the nighttime hours."

Assistant City Editor Nathan Brown contributed.