Rains bring relief from drought; flood threat remains
Aug. 16—For those welcoming rain as a form of relief from drought conditions, the news is good.
But New Mexico residents who fear further effects of flash flooding, particularly those who live in burn scar areas spread throughout the state, this week's forecast could bring more angst.
Rain is expected across much of the state in coming days, with a series of upper-level disturbances likely to bring thunderstorms and, possibly, flash flooding as soon as Tuesday and into the weekend, meteorologists with the National Weather Service in Albuquerque said.
"The chances of precipitation will ramp up during the midweek ... and this will certainly only enhance the risk for flash flooding as well as the potential for some small stream flooding," meteorologist Daniel Porter said during a Monday afternoon news briefing.
Unfortunately, he said, there are "very good chances of heavy rainfall" for just about every burn scar area in the state.
In the Santa Fe area, the communities of Tesuque and Rio en Medio have been deluged by flash floods, some that originated in burn scars left by fires that scorched the area a few years ago. Residents in Mora County, farther north, have had to contend with flash flooding in lands left charred by this year's historic Hermits Peak/Calf Canyon Fire.
The chances of rain in that region are as high as 80 percent for some days this week, according to the weather report.
The city of Santa Fe has 60 to 70 percent chance of receiving rain on many days this week, including Saturday — the first day of this year's Santa Fe Indian Market, staged on the Plaza and surrounding downtown streets.
"It's going to get soggy Friday night and Saturday," meteorologist Andy Church said.
Two high-pressure systems — one moving west from Texas and one moving east from Arizona — will help set up the potential for storms.
"It's just flat out a wet pattern," Church said, adding, "Any storm that does develop has the potential to drop heavy rainfall."
He said monsoon rains will continue into late August and possibly early September. But preliminary weather predictions suggest "below average precipitation" for the fall.
