Rays lock Wander Franco down for 12 years. But a lot can change

In the wacky world of professional sports spending, the signing of 20-year-old Wander Franco to a long-term contract worth no less than $182 million is a great move for the Rays and probably for Franco, too.

It locks down a potential superstar for the bulk of his playing career, which is exactly what Major League teams have been trying to do since the 1990s, based on the model established by Cleveland general manager John Hart.

What has changed in the quarter century since the Indians locked down the likes of Albert Belle, Kenny Lofton, Omar Vizquel and Jim Thome is dollar amounts, of course, and the definition of long-term. Long-term used to mean four or five years; now it means 10 years or more.

The Rays bought off all of Franco's arbitration rights and the early years of his eligibility for free agency. They control his rights through 2033, and many, many things will have changed by then, including the rules for all of the above and the venue referred to by the Rays as "home."

What is not likely to change is the value of having a great player – and especially a five-tool, switch-hitting shortstop – to build a roster around.

According to a list compiled by MLB.com, five of the top eight free agents on the market this winter are shortstops – Carlos Correa, Cory Seager, Trevor Story, Marcus Semien and Javier Baez. All five are considerably older than Franco and likely to sign nine-figure contracts. The list does not include San Diego's Fernando Tatis Jr., who signed a 14-year, $340 million contract just nine months ago at the age of 22.

Based on what we saw last season and looking ahead, which of those shortstops would you choose to pencil into your lineup for the next decade? To me the choice would come down to Franco or Tatis, who is costing the Padres almost twice as much as the Rays will be paying Franco.

From the viewpoint of Franco and his agent, it's true they could be foregoing tens of millions of dollars by signing this contract now, rather than playing out the normal process through arbitration and free agency. They could be "leaving money on the table," to use the gambling-drenched terminology in vogue. That process could have taken six or seven seasons, depending on what terms were agreed upon in the interim.

Instead Franco chose security. He took the big, guaranteed money up front. If he gets derailed by injuries, or if his team disintegrates around him or moves to Canada, or if he doesn't play up to his expectations (or ours) for any reason, he will still have $182 million, probably much more, in the bank in his early thirties.

Looking forward, two big questions.

First, how will the security and certainty affect Wander Franco, who is a professionally certified multimillionaire at a very tender age?

Everything about Franco's makeup was positive last season – his production, his response to pressure, his confidence. Indeed, he has been heralded as the game's top prospect for several years, and in 2021 he lived up to all of those expectations and more. Now he has the big contract and is the face of his franchise. It would be naive to assume that isn't going to change the paradigm, and not just for him.

The other question, with the winter meetings looming, is what about Randy Arozarena? And Mike Zunino? And Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows? What about Kevin Kiermaier and Nelson Cruz? The Rays were the best team in the American League this year, and they don't have many players locked up beyond next season.

Arozarena was actually named AL Rookie of the Year over Franco. That selection was based mostly on what Arozarena had accomplished during the COVID-abbreviated 2020 season and postseason. Nevertheless, Arozarena has accomplished more at this point than Franco. Even Franco's amazing record streak of reaching base in 43 straight games is surpassed by Arozarena's 10 home runs and 29 hits during the 2020 postseason.

Arozarena is 26. He is not a shortstop and he is still a few years away from free agency. His bargaining position is not in the same league as that of Franco. But he does play on the same team, and as long as that remains the case, it looks like it's going to be a pretty good team for a few years.

This article originally appeared on The Ledger: 12-year, $182 million guarantee is a great deal for Rays and Franco