‘Ready to be that change.’ How Roe being overturned could affect Texas midterm election

Thousands crowded at a Austin park in 100 degree heat on Sunday to protest the overturning of Roe v. Wade. The sun beamed down, as protesters faced a stage and held signs objecting to the Supreme Court decision that did away with the decades-long protection.

Speakers, including Beto O’Rourke, urged voters to organize ahead of the midterms and vote.

“We have to go out there and meet those people who’ve never participated before, said O’Rourke, the Democratic nominee for governor.

The overturning of Roe comes a little more than four months before the Nov. 8 election, where O’Rourke and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, and other state and congressional candidates are on the ballot. The court found in its June 24 decision that abortion policy is better left up to the states.

Democrats are rallying their base in hopes that the court’s decision drives voters to the polls, but with months to go before the election, what issues will be front of mind for voters when they cast their ballots? Anti-abortion advocates and many Republicans are cheering the decision and believe their base, too, will be energized, but political science experts say they have a fine line to walk as to not isolate independent and more moderate voters.

“The silver lining of all this, as horrible as it is, is that we can save ourselves,” said Tarrant County Democratic Party Chair Allison Campolo.

The ruling likely helps Democrats be more competitive, said Jim Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at UT Austin. But he questioned whether it will enable Democrats to completely displace subjects like the economy that are expected to be at the top of the agenda.

It’s still soon after the decision, Henson said, noting that eyes will be on polling and candidates’ responses.

“I expect it to change the dynamic,” he said. “I still have doubts if it can really reverse the advantages that Republicans enjoy in a red state like Texas going forward.”

Advocates, voters look ahead to November

A couple dozen people stood outside the Texas Capitol on Saturday to celebrate Roe being overturned.

Outside the Capitol gates, people took turns praying and sharing what the ruling meant to them. Speaking to those in attendance, Faith Elwonger, the Texas regional manager for Students for Life of America, said focus now turns to letting women know about resources available for them. The group’s sister organization is gearing up to go door-to-door to educate voters on the anti-abortion candidates, said Sarah Zarr, the Students for Life of America’s regional manager.

She thinks the ruling will energize voters.

“I think people will see they can actually make a difference, like we have,” Zarr said, noting the group has been preparing for Roe to be overturned since its founding. “We’ve seen that young people’s voices can make a difference, and that’s so exciting. So, we have a ton of energy going into elections, going into what’s next, that we can keep making a difference.”

John Seago, the president of Texas Right to Life, said apathy makes this a dangerous moment for Republicans and the anti-abortion movement.

“We have to make sure that voters don’t believe that this is over,” he said. “That we’ve won and we’re done. The pro-life movement after Roe v. Wade has to worked time and time again, session after session. That’s why we have this victory is because of that persistence and because of the commitment of the movement and we have to make sure that voters don’t abandon that.”

The next day a crowd of about 6,000 people, according to an estimate from O’Rourke’s campaign, gathered for a rally featuring Democratic candidates and abortion rights activists. Among the speakers were Mike Collier, who is running for lieutenant governor against Dan Patrick, and Rochelle Garza, who is challenging Ken Paxton for attorney general.

There have been protests across the state in the days since Friday’s ruling, including in Tarrant County where hundreds gathered outside of the Tarrant County Courthouse on Saturday.

Angelica Mendoza of Austin said she was angry. “I’m feeling we need to make a change, and I’m ready to be that change,” she said.

Kaitlin Murphee of Austin hopes to see increased turnout to get people in seats who can make change.

“I feel like there are still a lot of people who just choose not to vote because they feel like that is the better option when they don’t want any of the people who are in office, whether it’s Democrat or Republican — that they’re making a stand by not voting, but that’s hurting us more,” she said.

Hannah Shoopman, who is 21 and lives in Austin, said she knows many people her age who think their vote doesn’t matter — she used to be one of them. She was also among those at the rally Sunday.

“I have days where it’s like I am discouraged, really, but stuff like this where I see how many people come together... it encourages you a lot more,” Shoopman said.

Near the end of his remarks, O’Rourke posed to the crowd: “Action or reaction, what do you choose?”

“Action,” they replied.

Democrats work to mobilize voters

After the rally Sunday, O’Rourke told reporters that “Pro-choice Texans are fired up to win political power.” People want to do more than complain, tweet and shout about it, he said.

“They want to go knock on doors and win elections about it and make sure that the protections for these rights are restored,” he said. “I cannot speak to those on the other side, but I’ll tell you, Democrats, independents, Republicans alike who believe that every woman should be able to make her own decisions about her own body and her own future, they are galvanized and they are doing the work.”

Hannah Roe Beck, the state party’s co-executive director, called on voters to “organize, raise our voices, and create change” in the minutes after Friday’s ruling. She called the decision a “blaring, five-alarm call to action.”

State Party Chair Gilberto Hinojosa said there’s no question Democratic activists are incensed.

“The impact of what this decision meant has angered Democrats across the state of Texas, and I think increased the level of intensity on their part, with respect to their need to participate, either as an activist, and/or as voters in this next election cycle right this severe wrong,” Hinojosa said.

Campolo said that with redistricting, the most competitive districts in Tarrant County are countywide, with the race for county judge and district attorney being the most high profile. The district attorney will play a role in how abortion cases are prosecuted in the county. (Tarrant County District Attorney Sharen Wilson, who isn’t seeking reelection, has said she’ll prosecute legitimate abortion law violations.)

The most important thing is activating voters up and down the ballot, Campolo said. The local party is focusing resources on precincts that have been traditionally been high in population but low in voter participation.

Campolo thinks the court’s ruling could result in an uptick in voter registration and activation, including among women and young people, when people realize candidates who support abortion can be elected in a variety of seats.

“Just because Supreme Court decided this is not a constitutionally protected rights doesn’t mean our legislators can’t put forward legislation that gives us these rights back,” Campolo said.

But there’s a liability Democrats will have to overcome, said Joanne Green, a political science professor at TCU. Some that are upset with the court’s decision to overturn Roe are also upset that Democrats haven’t codified the 1973 decision into federal law. There are many times in the past 50 years when such a law could have been passed, she said.

“What the Democrats are going to have to do is turn that anger into action,” Green said. “Just because people are angry doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll be mobilized.”

How will Republicans respond to Roe being overturned?

Abbott said the court correctly overturned Roe in a statement Friday. In it, he emphasized that “Texas is a pro-life state” and highlighted steps the state has taken to support women’s health care and expecting mothers. But his campaign communications — at least his emails to reporters and social media posts — largely haven’t focused on abortion.

“Texas will always fight for the innocent unborn, and I will continue working with the Texas legislature and all Texans to save every child from the ravages of abortion and help our expectant mothers in need,” he said in a statement from his office shared on social media.

Abbott and his campaign declined to comment.

Some Republicans, particularly in rural areas, will be energized, but abortion is an issue that statewide candidates generally aren’t eager to discuss, Henson said. Overturning Roe is graded positively by many Republicans, but there’s also a substantial minority who don’t want it to be unavailable completely or unavailable in cases of rape or incest, he said.

Fifty-four percent of those surveyed somewhat or strongly opposed automatically banning all abortions in the state if Roe v. Wade were overturned, according to a poll conducted in April by The Texas Politics Project. Among Democrats, 80% opposed and 57% of Republicans polled supported.

Forty-two percent of Republicans said the law should permit abortion only in cases of rape or incest or when the woman’s life is in danger. Sixty-seven percent of Democrats said that by law, a woman should always be able to obtain an abortion as a matter of personal choice.

“I think if it was up to certainly the governor and Republican candidates in the state, they would spend most of their time talking about the economy and inflation and mobilizing negative attitudes about Joe Biden among Republicans and independents, and talking about immigration and border security,” Henson said. “Abortion is conspicuously not on that list.”

There are a lot of issues where independents in Texas break in the direction of Republicans, but abortion is not one of them, Henson said.

Tarrant County Republican Party Chair Rick Barnes was not immediately available for comment. But after a draft opinion overturning Roe was leaked in May, Barnes told the Star-Telegram he anticipates other issues will remain more of a focus in elections. In the governor’s race specifically, he thought people would be most concerned about property taxes and the economy.

“It will become a topic, but I’m not sure it will become any even more of a topic than it’s ever been, because it’s always been a topic in elections ever since I’ve been around elections,” Barnes said.

He also expected both Democrats and Republicans to see a boost in mobilizing voters.

Texas Republican Party Chair Matt Rinaldi said Republicans are generally very enthusiastic about the decision, but predicted the ruling will have a muted effect on the midterms overall. He too thought people would vote on things like inflation, gas prices and the border.

He predicted an area where it might be a key issue is in South Texas, where Democrats have lost one congressional seat in a special election and are at risk of losing it and two more in the general, according to The Texas Tribune. Rinaldi pointed out that in one of the districts — U.S. House District 28 where Rep. Henry Cuellar, a Democrat, is being challenged by Republican Cassy Garcia — both the Republican and Democratic candidates are anti-abortion.

“I think it shows that Democrats are being, I guess, overly hopeful and misreading the electorate on this issue,” Rinaldi said. “I think generally the electorate is more pro-life than Democrats believe.”

What issues will get voters attention?

There’s a lot of time between now and November and one big unknown is the economy, said Green, the TCU political science professor If the economy doesn’t improve, even voters who are concerned about abortion rights may decide they need to vote based on their pocketbooks, Green said.

“However, if the economy does improve or if voters find the abortion issue to be more salient, then it could have an impact, at least enough to temper the election where it won’t be as Pro-Republican, as most people anticipate it would otherwise be,” Green said.

Still, she was confident the Roe decision will still be on the radar of voters. In November, the country will only be starting to see the full effect of the court’s opinion and legislatures have pledged to continue policy action in the area of abortion access, Green said. In Texas, a “trigger” law banning most abortions goes into effect 30 day after a formal judgment is issued, which could be for another month or more, according to Paxton’s office.

“I think their decision has left this area with many, many, many questions, and so I think we’re going to be seeing a lot of action,” Green said.

But Democrats and activist groups will have to work hard if they’re going to keep the issue of abortion as front and center as it now, Henson said. Many Republican candidates will likely do what they can to avoid it staying there, he said.

“It’s a very, very, very crowded environment out there for this election cycle,” Henson said. “There’s a lot going on, and as we’ve seen, events are unpredictable.”

This is a developing story. Check back for updates.