Who knows which Florida State baseball team we'll see in the Auburn Regional | Weiler
Calling this year's Florida State baseball season to date a roller coaster may not do justice to thrill rides.
These Seminoles zig when you think they're going to zag and veer left when you tell them to go right.
When FSU was riding a hot streak of six straight series wins to start the season, it suddenly went ice cold, losing five straight games and seven of its next nine.
When the bandwagon emptied slightly after that stretch, FSU bounced back with a 4-0 week which included a win over rival Florida and a sweep of Louisville.
Riding high off an unlikely series win over Miami late in the regular season, FSU finished 1-5 over the final two weeks to kill off the realistic chance it had to host an NCAA Regional for the first time since 2018.
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Fitting for a team that was near impossible to get a read on, FSU was 13-13 this season against teams in this year's NCAA Tournament. 50/50. A true coin toss.
All of this leads to saying that no outcome from the Seminoles this weekend would come as a surprise.
A 3-0 sweep in the Auburn Regional? FSU definitely has the pitching and the proclivity for a big inning at the plate to make it a reality.
A quick 0-2 exit, which would fuel an offseason of speculation? We've seen enough disappointing results from this team that it wouldn't come as much of a surprise.
FSU was definitely done a favor by not being sent to the regional hosted by runaway title favorite Tennessee. Even being sent to play at UF would have brought with it some rivalry pressure, which would have upped the stakes.
Instead, the Seminoles will play in the regional hosted by the team considered by most in the college baseball world to be the most questionable regional host. They were done a favor there and definitely have a roster that could emerge victorious and keep their season alive for at least one more week.
FSU's 1-2 starting pitching punch of Parker Messick and Bryce Hubbart is the best in the Auburn Regional and among the best in the country.
Neither has been at their absolute best of late, but they can both put together dominant showings against elite lineups. Look no further than the no-hitter Messick took into the seventh inning against Notre Dame, or the fact that Hubbart allowed three or fewer runs in all but two starts this season.
If this pair of aces are both on, FSU could win its first two games and advance to the regional final. Then the other team that emerges would have to beat the Seminoles twice.
But if one of them doesn't live up to the moment and FSU loses one of its first two games, it's hard to see the Seminoles having the pitching depth or consistent hitting to come out of the loser's bracket.
Another thing potentially working against the Seminoles here is their well-documented struggles away from home this season. This year's FSU team is 6-13 in true road games, the worst road record in program history. Add in neutral-site games and FSU was 7-15 away from Dick Howser Stadium.
After winning its first road series of the season at Wake Forest, FSU lost three of its final four road series, all of them against teams which finished .500 or worse in ACC play. The only series win after Wake came against Boston College, which won just five conference games.
It's understandable if you're skeptical about the Seminoles' chances in Auburn this weekend. For a team picked to win the ACC before the season began, it's hard not to see what has transpired so far as underwhelming.
But one thing does seem clear from the season to date – doubt this team at your own risk. Because just when you think you have them figured out, they do the thing you never expected.
We'll see if FSU can keep subverting expectations this weekend.
Florida State vs. UCLA
When: Friday, noon
Where: Plainsman Park iAuburn, Ala.
TV/Radio: ESPN2/100.7 FM
Reach Curt Weiler at cweiler@tallahassee.com or follow him on Twitter @CurtMWeiler.
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This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: FSU baseball makes it hard to predict NCAA regional games
