What would a recession mean for the average person?, It's Cinco de Mayo: 5 Things podcast

On today's episode of the 5 Things podcast: What would a recession mean for the average person?

The odds of one are rising, as money reporter Elisabeth Buchwald explains. Plus, Russia targets western weapons in Ukraine, it's a day of awareness for missing or murdered Indigenous women, wellness reporter Jenna Ryu talks about 'hoovering' exes and it's Cinco de Mayo!

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Hit play on the player above to hear the podcast and follow along with the transcript below. This transcript was automatically generated, and then edited for clarity in its current form. There may be some differences between the audio and the text.

Taylor Wilson:

Good morning. I'm Taylor Wilson and this is 5 Things you need to know Thursday, the 5th of May 2022. Today, a look at the possibility of recession, plus awareness for missing or murdered indigenous women, and more.

Here are some of the top headlines:

1. The authoritarian leader of Belarus defended Russia's invasion of Ukraine and said he was doing everything to stop the war. President Alexander Lukashenko sat down with the Associated Press earlier today.

2. The US embassy in Havana has resumed processing visas for Cubans on a limited basis. It comes more than four years after stopping consular services on the island during hardened relations.

3. The Seattle Sounders are Concacaf Champions. The Sounders became the first major league soccer team ever to win the North American Champions League. It was the first time in the competition's 14-year history that the winning club did not come from Mexico.

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Recession. It's a scary word for many. While officials like FED chair Jerome Powell have tried to calm the public with recent comments, more and more Americans are wondering what an incoming recession could look like. Producer PJ Elliott checked in with money reporter Elisabeth Buchwald to find out more.

Elisabeth Buchwald:

No one really knows for certain how close we are to a recession because it's incredibly hard to predict, and oftentimes we don't know we're in a recession until we're actually in one. So that could be the case right now, but most economists are saying we're probably not in one right now. But we're looking at one potentially in a year from now. Although it really depends which economist you ask.

So Deutsche Bank is seeing this major recession coming about in late 2023 or early 2024. But Goldman Sachs says there's only a 15% chance there'll be a recession in the next year and 35% chance in the next 24 months. That's all just a lot of uncertainty, but we're hearing more talk of recession, which means that it could be sooner or it could be really far off. We don't know.

PJ Elliott:

So if or when that does come, what would it look like for the average American?

Elisabeth Buchwald:

It's not great. When a recession happens, a lot of people lose their jobs. Usually the first ones to go are the jobs that deal with manufacturing, things that are big purchases. So you think about refrigerators, washing machines, those things that people try to put off when their income has taken a big hit. So there's that side of the equation and there's also people having a tougher time getting loans because of the uncertainty with their job. Lenders might be more selective about who they give loans to and at what rate. Then there's also a big stock market implication. Stocks don't tend to do well during recessions, but there usually is a pretty big bounce back when recovery happens,

PJ Elliott:

Is there anything people can start to do now to brace for a possible upcoming recession?

Elisabeth Buchwald:

The best thing you could do now is work on building up savings or paying off debt to improve your credit score, because that credit score is going to be scrutinized if you need a loan or if you're trying to get a new credit card come a recession when lenders have to be more selective. So you want to do those personal finance 101s to boost your credit score. Oftentimes that also means not coming so close to your credit limit on your credit card or paying that off before a huge bill is due.

Taylor Wilson:

For Elizabeth's full story, check out a link in today's episode description.

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Russia, according to officials there, is trying to stop the flow of western weapons into Ukraine by bombing railroad stations and other supply line targets. But a senior US defense official said there was no appreciable impact on Ukraine's effort to resupply its forces. Russian attacks on infrastructure have especially targeted the western city of Lviv, which has been a major gateway for NATO-supplied weapons because of its proximity to the Polish border.

Air raid sirens continued to sound across Ukraine yesterday. Attacks were reported near the capital of Kyiv and also in Cherkasy and Dnipro in central Ukraine and in Zaporizhzhia in the southeast. That city's been a direct evacuation point for many civilians escaping the largely destroyed city of Mariupol. A commander of some of the last troops remaining there at the Azovstal steel plant said that Russians have broken into the compound. A Ukrainian military official also said there are heavy and bloody battles there as Russia tries to finalize control of the logistically crucial port city.

Meanwhile, First Lady Jill Biden leaves today for a trip to Romania and Slovakia, on the borders with Ukraine. A big part of her trip is to meet with refugee families. According to the UN, nearly 5.5 million Ukrainians have fled the country since Russia invaded on February 24th.

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MMIW. It's a disturbing acronym that stands for missing or murdered indigenous women. Today marks a national day of awareness for MMIW. It's part of a grassroots movement to bring attention to the exceptionally high levels of violence against indigenous people, especially women and children. The FBI's National Crime Information Center reported 5,203 missing indigenous women and girls last year, though that number was also found to be an under count, according to a report to Congress, because of a lack of comprehensive data. New federal laws and actions have attempted to address the problem, but advocates and family members of victims say initiatives have not gone far enough. One of those fighting for change is USA TODAY Women of the Year Honoree Cheryl Horn. She joined the fight when her niece, Selena Not Afraid, went missing in 2020.

Cheryl Horn:

The date when Selena went missing, I had to try to figure out a way that she wouldn't be scrolled by. Because I would scroll by them and I'd be like, "Aw," it would touch my heart then I'd keep going, like ... And I was thinking I don't want anybody to do that to Selena. How am I going to make it stand out? How am I going to catch people's interest and say, "Hey, what about this girl? What's going on?"

I had to be strong, put all the details out there, put everything we did every single day. So people would follow my Facebook page and say, "Okay, I'm going to follow it. Did they find her? With all these resources, why aren't they finding her? What's going on?"

Taylor Wilson:

You can hear more of Cheryl's story and more about missing and murdered indigenous women across the country with a link in today's show description.

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Toxic exes often make an effort to come back into our lives. Is it because they've truly changed or are they hoovering? Wellness reporter Jenna Ryu considers.

Jenna Ryu:

So hoovering is a manipulation tactic. A lot of the times it's used by toxic exes or narcissists, and it's named after a vacuum also called Hoover. It's basically the process of when a toxic ex or a narcissist tries to suck you back into an unhealthy relationship through manipulation or lies.

So, for example, it'll start with love bombing or flattery or gifts to reel you in and make the coming back part appealing. But then once you come back to the relationship, all the guilting, shaming, kind of the bad aspects of that relationship return.

So the one thing about hoovering is that it's almost always intentional and manipulative. So, for example, it's possible for exes to change, toxic people can obviously improve their tendencies and look back and take accountability. But in the case of hoovering, usually they won't apologize or admit the hurt that they've caused you. They'll often try to shift the blame back on you when you try to express the hurt and harm that you experienced in the past relationship. So someone who is truly repentant and wants to form a healthy relationship rather than hoover you will say they're genuinely sorry. They'll give examples of what they've done to change. So, for example, maybe they went to therapy or they'll list out like, "Hey, I know I did this to you in the past, but I promise I won't do that," and they'll be more empathetic towards you and understanding, even if you don't accept their romantic advances.

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Happy Cinco de Mayo. No, it's not Mexico's Independence Day. The holiday marks the Mexican Army's unlikely victory over the French forces of Napoleon III on May 5th, 1862 in the Battle of Puebla. The victory was not celebrated in Mexico at first, but instead by Mexican Americans as a form of resistance to the effects of the Mexican-American War, according to Chicanx historian Mario Garcia. The holiday then picked up more traction during the Chicano Movement in the 1960s and '70s. It's now been commercialized across the United States.

Thanks for listening to 5 Things. You can find us seven mornings a week on whatever your favorite podcast app is. Thanks to PJ Elliott for his great work on the show, and I'm back tomorrow with more of 5 Things from USA TODAY.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Recession for the average person, Happy Cinco de Mayo: 5 Things podcast