A record number of migrants came to the border in July. Here’s why the US isn’t seeing a typical ‘seasonal migration’ trend

WASHINGTON – As a record number of people came to the U.S.-Mexican border this year, President Joe Biden and his administration tried to address concerns it was a unique occurrence.

“It happens every single, solitary year: There is a significant increase in the number of people coming to the border in the winter months of January, February, March,” Biden said during a news conference in March. “That happens every year.”

Months later, the number of migrants coming to the U.S. southern border hasn't declined. The record number in July bucked seasonal migration trends that typically decline in the summer months.

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“We are witnessing how these things don't always follow the patterns of the past,” said Doris Meissner, director of the U.S. immigration policy program at the Migration Policy Institute.

Meissner said factors that push migrants out of their home country shift and change over the years. She noted “desperate circumstances” such as poverty, the lack of work, violence, corruption and the poor treatment of marginalized groups.

The dramatic increase of migrants began months before Biden was sworn into office, but his administration has witnessed some of the highest numbers. Democratic and Republican lawmakers want Biden to do more to address what they call a crisis, affecting not just migrants but border towns and law enforcement.

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There were seasonal spikes of people coming to the border in 2019 and 2014, when more people came in early spring, peaking in May before decreasing.

"The push and pull factors are typically the reasons that these migrations happen," Meissner said. "What the nature of those push and pull factors are shifts and changes, and I think that from the best we can tell, the push factors here obviously continue to be desperate circumstances."

Violence, poverty in Central America driving migration

Experts said the typical reasons people migrate to the USA, such as violence, poverty and political turmoil, have worsened because of COVID-19.

“What we're seeing is that the conditions in Central America are deteriorating, and that people are fleeing for safety and freedom,” said Frank Sharry, executive director of America’s Voice, an immigrant rights organization.

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Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said Thursday the "unprecedented number of migrants" poses a "serious challenge" to the Biden administration.

Mayorkas cited several reasons why migrants don't heed the administration's repeated warnings not to come to the USA, including "worsening conditions" in the countries of Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador – called the Northern Triangle – where people face poverty, violence and corruption. He gave an example of how the lives of young boys "are threatened if they declined to join a gang." He said young girls are vulnerable to rape in their home countries.

The DHS secretary pushed some blame onto the Trump administration. President Donald Trump imposed hard-line immigration policies throughout his tenure, including the Migrant Protection Protocols, also known as "Remain in Mexico," which forced migrants to wait in Mexico for U.S. immigration hearings.

Mayorkas said the Trump administration "slashed the resources" the United States uses to address migration from the Northern Triangle countries.

He said migrants staying in Mexico border towns try to cross into the USA multiple times, which causes numbers to rise.

The growing U.S. economy and the "gleam of the American promise," Mayorkas said, is another factor luring migrants.

Vice President Kamala Harris, who took the lead to address root causes of migration from Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, announced initiatives to combat human trafficking and corruption in the region. She tapped companies such as Mastercard and Microsoft to invest in the region.

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The administration's efforts haven't slowed the number of migrants. In July, Customs and Border Patrol officials had the largest number of border encounters of migrants in at least two decades: CBP officials encountered 212,672 people last month, up from 188,829 in June.

The number of unaccompanied children increased nearly 25% from June. According to the border agency, 18,962 unaccompanied children were encountered at the border, up from 15,234 in June. There was also an increase of family units : 82,966 in July compared with 55,839 in June.

White House: Seasonal migration is just one factor driving high numbers

White House press secretary Jen Psaki said last week a seasonal increase “was one of the factors” contributing to the large number of people coming to the border, but there are a “range of factors” such as economic and weather challenges and crime.

She said Harris’ role in addressing the root causes is a “long-term challenge and will require a long-term solution.”

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Psaki said the Biden administration has continued measures that aim to mitigate migration, such as extending Title 42, a policy that allows CBP officials to expel undocumented migrants to prevent the spread of COVID-19. She noted the Biden administration reimplemented an expedited removal process that allows immigration authorities to remove families without a hearing.

Psaki said certain families expelled from the USA were flown into the interior of Mexico to "attempt to cut down on recidivism and further spread of the delta variants" of the coronavirus.

Change in perception

Meissner, who served as commissioner of the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service from 1993 to 2000, said there's a perception among migrants that they will be accepted into the USA, a stark change from the previous administration.

“The criticism that is levied at the Biden administration is that they've opened the doors. They really haven't opened the doors, but the perception that this is a time to come, as contrasted with the rhetoric and actions that were put into place during the prior four years … is clearly out there, largely carried by smugglers, telling people that this is the time to come,” Meissner said.

She said the Biden administration characterized the rise in migrants as a “seasonal trend” because that has been the experience in the past.

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“Expecting that it would be a seasonal trend was a reasonable expectation. It's turning out differently, and so you have to adjust,” she said. “It is difficult to know how these things are going to manifest.”

The Biden administration released long-term plans last month to address economic insecurity and inequality, corruption, human rights and violence in Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador.

Sharry said the Biden administration is trying to address migration beyond short-term solutions.

“Every administration I've worked with for 40 years, has had the same playbook,” he said. “The situation isn't solved. It starts back up soon enough.”

The Biden administration’s plan to address migration in the region will have long-term effects that will address the “spontaneous and forced migration from Central America,” he said.

“If we're going to be serious about what to do with significant numbers of Central Americans coming to the southern border to seek freedom and safety, then we have to have a regional strategy that matches up with the regional nature of the challenge,” Sharry said. “The U.S. discourse about ‘it starts at the border, it's because of border policies’ and the only way to deal with it is with harder border policies. I just think it's simplistic and ineffective.”

Reach Rebecca Morin at Twitter @RebeccaMorin_

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Migrants at the border: Why US isn't seeing typical seasonal migration